Adaptive-Aggressive Traders Don't Dominate

For more than a decade Vytelingum's Adaptive-Aggressive (AA) algorithm has been recognized as the best-performing automated auction-market trading-agent strategy currently known in the AI/Agents literature; in this paper, we demonstrate that it is in fact routinely outperformed by another algorithm when exhaustively tested across a sufficiently wide range of market scenarios. The novel step taken here is to use large-scale compute facilities to brute-force exhaustively evaluate AA in a variety of market environments based on those used for testing it in the original publications. Our results show that even in these simple environments AA is consistently out-performed by IBM's GDX algorithm, first published in 2002. We summarize here results from more than one million market simulation experiments, orders of magnitude more testing than was reported in the original publications that first introduced AA. A 2019 ICAART paper by Cliff claimed that AA's failings were revealed by testing it in more realistic experiments, with conditions closer to those found in real financial markets, but here we demonstrate that even in the simple experiment conditions that were used in the original AA papers, exhaustive testing shows AA to be outperformed by GDX. We close this paper with a discussion of the methodological implications of our work: any results from previous papers where any one trading algorithm is claimed to be superior to others on the basis of only a few thousand trials are probably best treated with some suspicion now. The rise of cloud computing means that the compute-power necessary to subject trading algorithms to millions of trials over a wide range of conditions is readily available at reasonable cost: we should make use of this; exhaustive testing such as is shown here should be the norm in future evaluations and comparisons of new trading algorithms.Comment: To be published as a chapter in "Agents and Artificial Intelligence" edited by Jaap van den Herik, Ana Paula Rocha, and Luc Steels; forthcoming 2019/2020. 24 Pages, 1 Figure, 7 Table

Which Trading Agent is Best? Using a Threaded Parallel Simulation of a Financial Market Changes the Pecking-Order

This paper presents novel results generated from a new simulation model of a contemporary financial market, that cast serious doubt on the previously widely accepted view of the relative performance of various well-known public-domain automated-trading algorithms. Various public-domain trading algorithms have been proposed over the past 25 years in a kind of arms-race, where each new trading algorithm was compared to the previous best, thereby establishing a "pecking order", i.e. a partially-ordered dominance hierarchy from best to worst of the various trading algorithms. Many of these algorithms were developed and tested using simple minimal simulations of financial markets that only weakly approximated the fact that real markets involve many different trading systems operating asynchronously and in parallel. In this paper we use BSE, a public-domain market simulator, to run a set of experiments generating benchmark results from several well-known trading algorithms. BSE incorporates a very simple time-sliced approach to simulating parallelism, which has obvious known weaknesses. We then alter and extend BSE to make it threaded, so that different trader algorithms operate asynchronously and in parallel: we call this simulator Threaded-BSE (TBSE). We then re-run the trader experiments on TBSE and compare the TBSE results to our earlier benchmark results from BSE. Our comparison shows that the dominance hierarchy in our more realistic experiments is different from the one given by the original simple simulator. We conclude that simulated parallelism matters a lot, and that earlier results from simple simulations comparing different trader algorithms are no longer to be entirely trusted.Comment: 6 pages, 2 tables, 3 figures, to be presented at European Modelling and Simulation Symposium (EMSS2020

The Organizational Psychology of Hyper-Competition: Corporate Irresponsibility and the Lessons of Enron

What I want to do here is first explain my fears and then explore the Enron story from the standpoint of both social psychology and organizational behavior. My sense going in, at least, is that the social forces and selfish norms that emerge fairly naturally in highly competitive settings such as these dominate as behavioral influences over anything but high-powered legal controls. The kind of firm that I want to concentrate on is the new economy sort that requires a high rate of creative productivity from a large number of key managers and employees. Thus, I will put to the side the few remaining monopolistic public utilities, as well as firms with high rates of free cash flow from entrenched market power. The paradigmatic examples that I am interested in are knowledge and service-based firms in markets with relatively low barriers to entry and high rewards for innovation. Enron clearly was one of these

Supermarkets in India: Struggles over the Organization of Agricultural Markets and Food Supply Chains

This article analyzes the conflicts and distributional effects of efforts to restructure food supply chains in India. Specifically, it examines how large retail corporations are presently attempting to transform how fresh produce is produced and distributed in the new India-and efforts by policymakers, farmers, and traders to resist these changes. It explores these conflicts in West Bengal, a state that has been especially hostile to supermarket chains. Via an ethnographic study of small producers, traders, corporate leaders, and policymakers in the state, the article illustrates what food systems, and the legal and extralegal rules that govern them, reveal about the organization of markets and the increasingly large-scale concentration of private capital taking place in India and elsewhere in the developing world

Tarling Music Industry Ecosystem in The Digitalization Arena

Abstract: Tarlingmusic, which evolved from classical to modern, is deeply connected to the digital era. The changing music ecosystem is viewed not only historically, but also through the various change phenomena that occur. The ecological role of producer agents, managers, and singers in the digitalization arena, where tarlingmusic has historically faced two phases: classical (analog) and modern (digital). This study used a qualitative method with a case study approach from an ecomusicological perspective. As a result, this study discovers a socio-musical phenomenon that holistically divides the tarlingmusic ecosystem based on periodization and the roles of agents in the music industry, including production, distribution, and consumption sub-areas. Producer agencies, managers, and singers are navigating a new digitalization ecosystem that is influencing how they present tarlings in digital files and market them through paid platforms. Agents must also deal with a wide range of fans via social media live. Keywords: music ecosystem, tarlingmusic, digitalization aren

Ecosistema de la industria musical de Tarling en el campo de la digitalización

Abstract: Tarlingmusic, which evolved from classical to modern, is deeply connected to the digital era. The changing music ecosystem is viewed not only historically, but also through the various change phenomena that occur. The ecological role of producer agents, managers, and singers in the digitalization arena, where tarlingmusic has historically faced two phases: classical (analog) and modern (digital). This study used a qualitative method with a case study approach from an ecomusicological perspective. As a result, this study discovers a socio-musical phenomenon that holistically divides the tarlingmusic ecosystem based on periodization and the roles of agents in the music industry, including production, distribution, and consumption sub-areas. Producer agencies, managers, and singers are navigating a new digitalization ecosystem that is influencing how they present tarlings in digital files and market them through paid platforms. Agents must also deal with a wide range of fans via social media live. Keywords: music ecosystem, tarlingmusic, digitalization arenaResumen: La música Tarling, que evolucionó de lo clásico a lo moderno, está profundamente conectada con la era digital. El ecosistema musical cambiante se ve no solo históricamente, sino también a través de los diversos fenómenos de cambio que ocurren. El papel ecológico de los agentes productores, managers y cantantes en la arena de la digitalización, donde la música tarlingha enfrentado históricamente dos fases: clásica (analógica) y moderna (digital). Este estudio utilizó un método cualitativo con un enfoque de estudio de caso desde una perspectiva ecomusicológica. Como resultado, divide el ecosistema musical tarlingen función de la periodización y los roles de los agentes en la industria de la música, incluidas las subáreas de producción, distribución y consumo. Las agencias de producción, los gerentes y los cantantes están navegando por un nuevo ecosistema de digitalización que presenta tarlings en archivos digitales, mercados y fanáticos a través de plataformas digitales. Palabras clave: ecosistema musical, tarlingmusic, arena de digitalizació

Power, Food and Agriculture: Implications for Farmers, Consumers and Communities

agriculture casp farmers food powerOne of the most pressing concerns about the industrialization of agriculture and food is the consolidation and concentration of markets for agricultural inputs, agricultural commodities food processing and groceries. In essence a small minority of actors globally exercise great control over food system decisions. This means that because of increased consolidation of these markets globally – from the United States to China to Brazil, from South Africa to the United Kingdom – the vast majority of farmers, consumers and communities are left out of key decisions about how we farm and what we eat. Transnational agrifood firms are motivated by profits and power in the marketplace, leaving other social, economic and ecological goals behind. This creates an agroecological crisis in the face of climate uncertainty but one that is rooted in social and economic organization. In this chapter we detail the current economic organization of agriculture, and briefly describe its negative impacts on farmers, communities and ecology. We conclude by articulating stories of farmer-led resistance that imagine a new food system

An Investigation into the Night-Time Economy in Long Street

Includes bibliographical references.This paper investigates the night-time economy (NTE) present in Cape Town, focusing on Long Street as its spatialized case, to ascertain the credibility of it becoming a 24 hour (24-h) city. A diverse and vibrant NTE is seen as the foundation of a 24-h city which is inclusive of the broader community. The concept, originally developed in the United Kingdom (UK) as the 24-h planning policy-package, sought to create active city centres at night by embracing a neoliberal approach to managing the NTE. This package revolved around getting people into the city centre at night, as well as promoting their participation in the NTE. This was meant to be achieved by the deregulation of liquor laws and some amendment of municipal by-laws. However, the policy-package had the opposite effect, and resulted in the proliferation of youthful adults engaged in acts of transgression and anti-social behaviours. Consequently, the broader community was driven away from city centres at night as they became designated spaces of ‘patterned liminality' -- when social order dissolved and transgressions were normalised. The research, conducted using a case study method, is comprised of primary and secondary data. This includes evidence from 16 interviews, a photo essay, and infield observations which together indicate that there are distinct parallels between the alcohol-fuelled and youth-dominated NTEs in the UK and the NTE found in Long Street. The research concludes that Long Street has become a space of ‘patterned liminality' where anti-social behaviour is acted out, resulting in an exclusionary effect for the broader community. In light of this evidence Cape Town can make no claim to be a true 24-h city. The dissertation concludes by suggesting recommendations aimed at creating a more inclusive NTE aligned with the 24-h city ideals. These include: temporary pedestrianisation, the extension of retail trading hours, amendment the Western Cape Liquor Act of 2008 to include a saturation point for liquor licences in a specified area, investigation of the feasibility of a night market, promotion of cultural events not centred around drinking, and ensuring that Long Street is a well-lit space at night