Mathematical models for planning support

In this paper we describe how computer systems can provide planners with active planning support, when these planners are carrying out their daily planning activities. This means that computer systems actively participate in the planning process by automatically generating plans or partial plans. Active planning support by computer systems requires the application of mathematical models and solution techniques. In this paper we describe the modeling process in general terms, as well as several modeling and solution techniques. We also present some background information on computational complexity theory, since most practical planning problems are hard to solve. We also describe how several objective functions can be handled, since it is rare that solutions can be evaluated by just one single objective. Furthermore, we give an introduction into the use of mathematical modeling systems, which are useful tools in a modeling context, especially during the development phases of a mathematical model. We finish the paper with a real life example related to the planning process of the rolling stock circulation of a railway operator.optimization;mathematical models;modeling process;planning support;Planning

Dendritic cable with active spines: a modeling study in the spike-diffuse-spike framework

The spike-diffuse-spike (SDS) model describes a passive dendritic tree with active dendritic spines. Spine-head dynamics is modelled with a simple integrate-and-fire process, whilst communication between spines is mediated by the cable equation. Here we develop a computational framework that allows the study of multiple spiking events in a network of such spines embedded in a simple one-dimensional cable. This system is shown to support saltatory waves as a result of the discrete distribution of spines. Moreover, we demonstrate one of the ways to incorporate noise into the spine-head whilst retaining computational tractability of the model. The SDS model sustains a variety of propagating patterns

What Automated Planning Can Do for Business Process Management

Business Process Management (BPM) is a central element of today organizations. Despite over the years its main focus has been the support of processes in highly controlled domains, nowadays many domains of interest to the BPM community are characterized by ever-changing requirements, unpredictable environments and increasing amounts of data that influence the execution of process instances. Under such dynamic conditions, BPM systems must increase their level of automation to provide the reactivity and flexibility necessary for process management. On the other hand, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community has concentrated its efforts on investigating dynamic domains that involve active control of computational entities and physical devices (e.g., robots, software agents, etc.). In this context, Automated Planning, which is one of the oldest areas in AI, is conceived as a model-based approach to synthesize autonomous behaviours in automated way from a model. In this paper, we discuss how automated planning techniques can be leveraged to enable new levels of automation and support for business processing, and we show some concrete examples of their successful application to the different stages of the BPM life cycle

VELOS : a VR platform for ship-evacuation analysis

Virtual Environment for Life On Ships (VELOS) is a multi-user Virtual Reality (VR) system that aims to support designers to assess (early in the design process) passenger and crew activities on a ship for both normal and hectic conditions of operations and to improve ship design accordingly. This article focuses on presenting the novel features of VELOS related to both its VR and evacuation-specific functionalities. These features include: (i) capability of multiple users’ immersion and active participation in the evacuation process, (ii) real-time interactivity and capability for making on-the-fly alterations of environment events and crowd-behavior parameters, (iii) capability of agents and avatars to move continuously on decks, (iv) integrated framework for both the simplified and advanced method of analysis according to the IMO/MSC 1033 Circular, (v) enrichment of the ship geometrical model with a topological model suitable for evacuation analysis, (vi) efficient interfaces for the dynamic specification and handling of the required heterogeneous input data, and (vii) post-processing of the calculated agent trajectories for extracting useful information for the evacuation process. VELOS evacuation functionality is illustrated using three evacuation test cases for a ro–ro passenger ship

The Elusive Criterion of Fit in Employment Interview Decisions

Tbe employment interview has had an interesting history of being both widely condemned by researchers and widely used by practitioners. Little attention in past research has been directed at attempts to explain this apparent incongruity. It is proposed in this paper that part of the explanation may lie in the way researchers have defined the criterion when studying the validity of the interview. Namely, the construct of fit may lead to a reconsideration of the usefulness of the interview in personnel selection decisions. In support of this argument, a conceptual model of the selection process which incorporates fit as a central construct is proposed. Furthermore, fit is conceptualized as not simply a passive process, but rather the outcome of active influence attempts by candidates to manage impressions and meanings. Finally, implications for practice and research on the interview are discussed

Supporting Special-Purpose Health Care Models via Web Interfaces

The potential of the Web, via both the Internet and intranets, to facilitate development of clinical information systems has been evident for some time. Most Web-based clinical workstations interfaces, however, provide merely a loose collection of access channels. There are numerous examples of systems for access to either patient data or clinical guidelines, but only isolated cases where clinical decision support is presented integrally with the process of patient care, in particular, in the form of active alerts and reminders based on patient data. Moreover, pressures in the health industry are increasing the need for doctors to practice in accordance with ¿best practice¿ guidelines and often to operate under novel health-care arrangements. We present the Care Plan On-Line (CPOL) system, which provides intranet-based support for the SA HealthPlus Coordinated Care model for chronic disease management. We describe the interface design rationale of CPOL and its implementation framework, which is flexible and broadly applicable to support new health care models over intranets or the Internet

The Role of Regulated mRNA Stability in Establishing Bicoid Morphogen Gradient in Drosophila Embryonic Development

The Bicoid morphogen is amongst the earliest triggers of differential spatial pattern of gene expression and subsequent cell fate determination in the embryonic development of Drosophila. This maternally deposited morphogen is thought to diffuse in the embryo, establishing a concentration gradient which is sensed by downstream genes. In most model based analyses of this process, the translation of the bicoid mRNA is thought to take place at a fixed rate from the anterior pole of the embryo and a supply of the resulting protein at a constant rate is assumed. Is this process of morphogen generation a passive one as assumed in the modelling literature so far, or would available data support an alternate hypothesis that the stability of the mRNA is regulated by active processes? We introduce a model in which the stability of the maternal mRNA is regulated by being held constant for a length of time, followed by rapid degradation. With this more realistic model of the source, we have analysed three computational models of spatial morphogen propagation along the anterior-posterior axis: (a) passive diffusion modelled as a deterministic differential equation, (b) diffusion enhanced by a cytoplasmic flow term; and (c) diffusion modelled by stochastic simulation of the corresponding chemical reactions. Parameter estimation on these models by matching to publicly available data on spatio-temporal Bicoid profiles suggests strong support for regulated stability over either a constant supply rate or one where the maternal mRNA is permitted to degrade in a passive manner

An animal model of SARS produced by infection of Macaca mulatta with SARS coronavirus.

A new SARS animal model was established by inoculating SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) into rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) through the nasal cavity. Pathological pulmonary changes were successively detected on days 5-60 after virus inoculation. All eight animals showed a transient fever 2-3 days after inoculation. Immunological, molecular biological, and pathological studies support the establishment of this SARS animal model. Firstly, SARS-CoV-specific IgGs were detected in the sera of macaques from 11 to 60 days after inoculation. Secondly, SARS-CoV RNA could be detected in pharyngeal swab samples using nested RT-PCR in all infected animals from 5 days after virus inoculation. Finally, histopathological changes of interstitial pneumonia were found in the lungs during the 60 days after viral inoculation: these changes were less marked at later time points, indicating that an active healing process together with resolution of an acute inflammatory response was taking place in these animals. This animal model should provide insight into the mechanisms of SARS-CoV-related pulmonary disease and greatly facilitate the development of vaccines and therapeutics against SARS

Learning action-oriented models through active inference

Converging theories suggest that organisms learn and exploit probabilistic models of their environment. However, it remains unclear how such models can be learned in practice. The open-ended complexity of natural environments means that it is generally infeasible for organisms to model their environment comprehensively. Alternatively, action-oriented models attempt to encode a parsimonious representation of adaptive agent-environment interactions. One approach to learning action-oriented models is to learn online in the presence of goal-directed behaviours. This constrains an agent to behaviourally relevant trajectories, reducing the diversity of the data a model need account for. Unfortunately, this approach can cause models to prematurely converge to sub-optimal solutions, through a process we refer to as a bad-bootstrap. Here, we exploit the normative framework of active inference to show that efficient action-oriented models can be learned by balancing goal-oriented and epistemic (information-seeking) behaviours in a principled manner. We illustrate our approach using a simple agent-based model of bacterial chemotaxis. We first demonstrate that learning via goal-directed behaviour indeed constrains models to behaviorally relevant aspects of the environment, but that this approach is prone to sub-optimal convergence. We then demonstrate that epistemic behaviours facilitate the construction of accurate and comprehensive models, but that these models are not tailored to any specific behavioural niche and are therefore less efficient in their use of data. Finally, we show that active inference agents learn models that are parsimonious, tailored to action, and which avoid bad bootstraps and sub-optimal convergence. Critically, our results indicate that models learned through active inference can support adaptive behaviour in spite of, and indeed because of, their departure from veridical representations of the environment. Our approach provides a principled method for learning adaptive models from limited interactions with an environment, highlighting a route to sample efficient learning algorithms