66,984 research outputs found
Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge
International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international migration with knowledge gained from experts on the measurement of migration statistics, obtained from a multi-stage Delphi survey. Second, we present our methodology for translating this information into prior distributions for input into the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model, which is designed to estimate migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), by using recent data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. The IMEM model is capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.
Scientific Polarization
Contemporary societies are often "polarized", in the sense that sub-groups
within these societies hold stably opposing beliefs, even when there is a fact
of the matter. Extant models of polarization do not capture the idea that some
beliefs are true and others false. Here we present a model, based on the
network epistemology framework of Bala and Goyal ["Learning from neighbors",
\textit{Rev. Econ. Stud.} \textbf{65}(3), 784-811 (1998)], in which
polarization emerges even though agents gather evidence about their beliefs,
and true belief yields a pay-off advantage. The key mechanism that generates
polarization involves treating evidence generated by other agents as uncertain
when their beliefs are relatively different from one's own.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, author final versio
The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts
Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters’ judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.monetary policy, survey forecasts, inflation uncertainty, heterogenous beliefs and expectations, monetary aggregates
How are emergent constraints quantifying uncertainty and what do they leave behind?
The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy
relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become
increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that
emergent constraints are inappropriate or even under-report uncertainty. In
this paper we contribute to this discussion by examining the emergent
constraints methodology in terms of its underpinning statistical assumptions.
We argue that the existing frameworks are based on indefensible assumptions,
then show how weakening them leads to a more transparent Bayesian framework
wherein hitherto ignored sources of uncertainty, such as how reality might
differ from models, can be quantified. We present a guided framework for the
quantification of additional uncertainties that is linked to the confidence we
can have in the underpinning physical arguments for using linear constraints.
We provide a software tool for implementing our general framework for emergent
constraints and use it to illustrate the framework on a number of recent
emergent constraints for ECS. We find that the robustness of any constraint to
additional uncertainties depends strongly on the confidence we can have in the
underpinning physics, allowing a future framing of the debate over the validity
of a particular constraint around the underlying physical arguments, rather
than statistical assumptions
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