Evaluation of analytical methodologies to derive vulnerability functions

The recognition of fragility functions as a fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment has led to the development of more and more complex and elaborate procedures for their computation. Although vulnerability functions have been traditionally produced using observed damage and loss data, more recent studies propose the employment of analytical methodologies as a way to overcome the frequent lack of post-earthquake data. The variation of the structural modelling approaches on the estimation of building capacity has been the target of many studies in the past, however, its influence in the resulting vulnerability model, impact in loss estimations or propagation of the uncertainty to the seismic risk calculations has so far been the object of restricted scrutiny. Hence, in this paper, an extensive study of static and dynamic procedures for estimating the nonlinear response of buildings has been carried out in order to evaluate the impact of the chosen methodology on the resulting vulnerability and risk outputs. Moreover, the computational effort and numerical stability provided by each approach were evaluated and conclusions were obtained regarding which one offers the optimal balance between accuracy and complexity

Seismic design of reinforced concrete frames for minimum embodied CO2 emissions

Optimum structural design of reinforced concrete (RC) frames has been the focus of extensive research. Typically, previous studies set economic cost as the main design objective despite the fact that RC structures are major contributors of CO2 emissions. The limited number of studies examining optimum design of RC frames for minimum CO2 emissions do not address seismic design considerations. However, in many countries around the world, including most of the top-10 countries in CO2 emissions from cement production, RC structures must be designed against earthquake threat. To bridge this gap, the present study develops optimum seismic designs of RC frames for minimum cradle to gate embodied CO2 emissions and compares them with optimum designs based on construction cost. The aim is to identify efficient design practices that minimize the environmental impact of earthquake-resistant RC frames and examine the trade-offs between their cost and CO2 footprint. To serve this goal, an RC frame is optimally designed according to all ductility classes of Eurocode 8 and for various design peak ground accelerations (PGAs), concrete classes and materials embodied CO2 footprint scenarios. It is found that the minimum feasible CO2 emissions of RC frames strongly depend on the adopted ductility class in regions of high seismicity, where low ductility seismic design can generate up to 60% more CO2 emissions than designs for medium and high ductility. The differences reduce, however, as the level of seismicity decreases. Furthermore, CO2 emissions increase significantly with the design PGA. On the other hand, they are less sensitive to the applied concrete class. It is also concluded that, for medium to high values of the ratio of the unit environmental impact of reinforcing steel to the respective impact of concrete, the minimum CO2 seismic designs are very closely related to the minimum cost designs. However, for low values of the same ratio, the minimum cost design solutions can generate up to 13% more emissions than the minimum CO2 designs

An efficient methodology to estimate probabilistic seismic damage curves

The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is a powerful methodology that can be easily extended for calculating probabilistic seismic damage curves. These curves are metadata to assess the seismic risk of structures. Although this methodology requires a relevant computational effort, it should be the reference to correctly estimate the seismic risk of structures. Nevertheless, it would be of high practical interest to have a simpler methodology, based for instance on the pushover analysis (PA), to obtain similar results to those based on IDA. In this article, PA is used to obtain probabilistic seismic damage curves from the stiffness degradation and the energy of the nonlinear part of the capacity curve. A fully probabilistic methodology is tackled by means of Monte Carlo simulations with the purpose of establishing that the results based on the simplified proposed approach are compatible with those obtained with the IDA. Comparisons between the results of both approaches are included for a low- to midrise reinforced concrete building. The proposed methodology significantly reduces the computational effort when calculating probabilistic seismic damage curves.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Impact of Seismic Risk on Lifetime Property Values

This report presents a methodology for establishing the uncertain net asset value, NAV, of a real-estate investment opportunity considering both market risk and seismic risk for the property. It also presents a decision-making procedure to assist in making real-estate investment choices under conditions of uncertainty and risk-aversion. It is shown that that market risk, as measured by the coefficient of variation of NAV, is at least 0.2 and may exceed 1.0. In a situation of such high uncertainty, where potential gains and losses are large relative to a decision-maker's risk tolerance, it is appropriate to adopt a decision-analysis approach to real-estate investment decision-making. A simple equation for doing so is presented. The decision-analysis approach uses the certainty equivalent, CE, as opposed to NAV as the basis for investment decision-making. That is, when faced with multiple investment alternatives, one should choose the alternative that maximizes CE. It is shown that CE is less than the expected value of NAV by an amount proportional to the variance of NAV and the inverse of the decision-maker's risk tolerance, [rho]. The procedure for establishing NAV and CE is illustrated in parallel demonstrations by CUREE and Kajima research teams. The CUREE demonstration is performed using a real 1960s-era hotel building in Van Nuys, California. The building, a 7-story non-ductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building, is analyzed using the assembly-based vulnerability (ABV) method, developed in Phase III of the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program. The building is analyzed three ways: in its condition prior to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, with a hypothetical shearwall upgrade, and with earthquake insurance. This is the first application of ABV to a real building, and the first time ABV has incorporated stochastic structural analyses that consider uncertainties in the mass, damping, and force-deformation behavior of the structure, along with uncertainties in ground motion, component damageability, and repair costs. New fragility functions are developed for the reinforced concrete flexural members using published laboratory test data, and new unit repair costs for these components are developed by a professional construction cost estimator. Four investment alternatives are considered: do not buy; buy; buy and retrofit; and buy and insure. It is found that the best alternative for most reasonable values of discount rate, risk tolerance, and market risk is to buy and leave the building as-is. However, risk tolerance and market risk (variability of income) both materially affect the decision. That is, for certain ranges of each parameter, the best investment alternative changes. This indicates that expected-value decision-making is inappropriate for some decision-makers and investment opportunities. It is also found that the majority of the economic seismic risk results from shaking of S[subscript a] < 0.3g, i.e., shaking with return periods on the order of 50 to 100 yr that cause primarily architectural damage, rather than from the strong, rare events of which common probable maximum loss (PML) measurements are indicative. The Kajima demonstration is performed using three Tokyo buildings. A nine-story, steel-reinforced-concrete building built in 1961 is analyzed as two designs: as-is, and with a steel-braced-frame structural upgrade. The third building is 29-story, 1999 steel-frame structure. The three buildings are intended to meet collapse-prevention, life-safety, and operational performance levels, respectively, in shaking with 10%exceedance probability in 50 years. The buildings are assessed using levels 2 and 3 of Kajima's three-level analysis methodology. These are semi-assembly based approaches, which subdivide a building into categories of components, estimate the loss of these component categories for given ground motions, and combine the losses for the entire building. The two methods are used to estimate annualized losses and to create curves that relate loss to exceedance probability. The results are incorporated in the input to a sophisticated program developed by the Kajima Corporation, called Kajima D, which forecasts cash flows for office, retail, and residential projects for purposes of property screening, due diligence, negotiation, financial structuring, and strategic planning. The result is an estimate of NAV for each building. A parametric study of CE for each building is presented, along with a simplified model for calculating CE as a function of mean NAV and coefficient of variation of NAV. The equation agrees with that developed in parallel by the CUREE team. Both the CUREE and Kajima teams collaborated with a number of real-estate investors to understand their seismic risk-management practices, and to formulate and to assess the viability of the proposed decision-making methodologies. Investors were interviewed to elicit their risk-tolerance, r, using scripts developed and presented here in English and Japanese. Results of 10 such interviews are presented, which show that a strong relationship exists between a decision-maker's annual revenue, R, and his or her risk tolerance, [rho is approximately equal to] 0.0075R[superscript 1.34]. The interviews show that earthquake risk is a marginal consideration in current investment practice. Probable maximum loss (PML) is the only earthquake risk parameter these investors consider, and they typically do not use seismic risk at all in their financial analysis of an investment opportunity. For competitive reasons, a public investor interviewed here would not wish to account for seismic risk in his financial analysis unless rating agencies required him to do so or such consideration otherwise became standard practice. However, in cases where seismic risk is high enough to significantly reduce return, a private investor expressed the desire to account for seismic risk via expected annualized loss (EAL) if it were inexpensive to do so, i.e., if the cost of calculating the EAL were not substantially greater than that of PML alone. The study results point to a number of interesting opportunities for future research, namely: improve the market-risk stochastic model, including comparison of actual long-term income with initial income projections; improve the risk-attitude interview; account for uncertainties in repair method and in the relationship between repair cost and loss; relate the damage state of structural elements with points on the force-deformation relationship; examine simpler dynamic analysis as a means to estimate vulnerability; examine the relationship between simplified engineering demand parameters and performance; enhance category-based vulnerability functions by compiling a library of building-specific ones; and work with lenders and real-estate industry analysts to determine the conditions under which seismic risk should be reflected in investors' financial analyses

Prediction of seismic-induced structural damage using artificial neural networks

Peer reviewedPostprin

Seismic Vulnerability of the Italian Roadway Bridge Stock

This study focuses on the seismic vulnerability evaluation of the Italian roadway bridge stock, within the framework of a Civil Protection sponsored project. A comprehensive database of existing bridges (17,000 bridges with different level of knowledge) was implemented. At the core of the study stands a procedure for automatically carrying out state-of-the-art analytical evaluation of fragility curves for two performance levels – damage and collapse – on an individual bridge basis. A webGIS was developed to handle data and results. The main outputs are maps of bridge seismic risk (from the fragilities and the hazard maps) at the national level and real-time scenario damage-probability maps (from the fragilities and the scenario shake maps). In the latter case the webGIS also performs network analysis to identify routes to be followed by rescue teams. Consistency of the fragility derivation over the entire bridge stock is regarded as a major advantage of the adopted approach

2012 Emilia earthquake, Italy:reinforced concrete buildings response

Data of the Italian National Institute of Statistics are collected aimed at characterizing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building stock of the area struck by the 2012 Emilia earthquake (number of storeys, age of construction, structural typology). Damage observations, collected right after the event in reconnaissance reports, are shown and analyzed emphasizing typical weaknesses of RC buildings in the area. The evolution of seismic classification for Emilia region and RC buildings??? main characteristics represent the input data for the assessment of non-structural damage of infilled RC buildings, through a simplified approach (FAST method), based on EMS-98 damage scale. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) capacities for the first three damage states of EMS-98 are compared with registered PGA in the epicentral area. Observed damage and damage states evaluated for the PGA of the event, in the epicentral area, are finally compared. The comparison led to a fair agreement between observed and numerical data

Seismic precast: seismic performance assessment of existing precast industrial buildings

No abstract available.publishe

Nonlinear seismic analysis of existing RC school buildings: the “P3” school typology

The seismic assessment of existing school buildings is an important issue in earthquake prone regions; such is the case of the Algarve, which is the southern region of Portugal mainland. Having this problem in mind, the PERSISTAH project (Projetos de Escolas Resilientes aos SISmos no Território do Algarve e de Huelva, in Portuguese) aimed to develop a computational approach enabling the damage evaluation of a large number of individual school buildings. One of the school typologies assessed was the so-called “P3” schools. This typology is composed of several different modules that are combined in different manners depending on the number of students. Each module was built in accordance with architectural standardised designs. For this reason, there are many replicas of these modules all over the Algarve region. The structural system of each module is composed of a frame of reinforced concrete (RC) elements. Nonlinear static seismic analysis procedures were adopted to evaluate the structural seismic behaviour, namely by using the new concept of performance curve. Based on the obtained results, it was possible to conclude that the seismic safety of this type of school building is mainly ruled by the shear capacity of the columns. This study also shows the difficulties of carrying out accurate seismic assessments of existing buildings using the methods of analysis that are established in the Eurocode 8.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio