Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems

Dynamic Relief Items Distribution Model with Sliding Time Window in the Post-Disaster Environment

In smart cities, relief items distribution is a complex task due to the factors such as incomplete information, unpredictable exact demand, lack of resources, and causality levels, to name a few. With the development of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, dynamic data update provides the scope of distribution schedule to adopt changes with updates. Therefore, the dynamic relief items distribution schedule becomes a need to generate humanitarian supply chain schedules as a smart city application. To address the disaster data updates in different time periods, a dynamic optimised model with a sliding time window is proposed that defines the distribution schedule of relief items from multiple supply points to different disaster regions. The proposed model not only considers the details of available resources dynamically but also introduces disaster region priority along with transportation routes information updates for each scheduling time slot. Such an integrated optimised model delivers an effective distribution schedule to start with and updates it for each time slot. A set of numerical case studies is formulated to evaluate the performance of the optimised scheduling. The dynamic updates on the relief item demands’ travel path, causality level and available resources parameters have been included as performance measures for optimising the distributing schedule. The models have been evaluated based on performance measures to reflect disaster scenarios. Evaluation of the proposed models in comparison to the other perspective static and dynamic relief items distribution models shows that adopting dynamic updates in the distribution model cover most of the major aspects of the relief items distribution task in a more realistic way for post-disaster relief management. The analysis has also shown that the proposed model has the adaptability to address the changing demand and resources availability along with disaster conditions. In addition, this model will also help the decision-makers to plan the post-disaster relief operations in more effective ways by covering the updates on disaster data in each time period

Mass Casualty Management in Disaster Scene: A Systematic Review of OR&MS research in Humanitarian Operations

[EN] Disasters are usually managed through a four-phase cycle including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. The first two phases happen before a disaster and the last two after it. This survey focuses on casualty management (CM), which is one of the actions taken in the response phase of a disaster. Right after a severe disaster strikes, we may be confronted with a large number of casualties in a very short period of time. These casualties are in need of urgent treatment and their survival depends on a rapid response. Therefore, managing resources in the first few hours after a disaster is critical and efficient CM can significantly increase the survival rate of casualties. Uncertainty in the location of a disaster, disruption to transportation networks, scarcity of resources and possible deaths of rescue and medical teams due to the disaster in such situations make it hard to manage casualties. In this survey, we focus on CM for disasters where the following five steps are taken, respectively: (i) Resource dispatching/search and rescue, (ii) on-site triage, (iii) on-site medical assistance, (iv) transportation to hospitals and (v) triage and comprehensive treatment. With a special focus on Operations Research (OR) techniques, we categorize the existing research papers and case studies in each of these steps. Then, by critically observing and investigating gaps, trends and the practicality of the extant research studies, we suggest future directions for academics and practitioners.Ruben Ruiz is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities, under the project "OPTEP-Port Terminal Operations Optimization"(No. RTI2018-094940-B-I00) financed with FEDER funds.Farahani, RZ.; Lotfi, MM.; Baghaian, A.; Ruiz García, R.; Rezapour, S. (2020). 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