8,728 research outputs found
Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior
This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic
causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven
robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be
represented by most action models used in AI planning: the temporal structure
of continuous control processes, their non-deterministic effects, several modes
of their interferences, and the achievement of triggering conditions in
closed-loop robot plans.
The main contributions of this article are: (1) PHAMs, a model of concurrent
percept-driven behavior, its formalization, and proofs that the model generates
probably, qualitatively accurate predictions; and (2) a resource-efficient
inference method for PHAMs based on sampling projections from probabilistic
action models and state descriptions. We show how PHAMs can be applied to
planning the course of action of an autonomous robot office courier based on
analytical and experimental results
Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic
A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance
Ranking and Repulsing Supermartingales for Reachability in Probabilistic Programs
Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis
of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative
account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating
reachability probabilities. Based on the existing works that stretch across
different communities (formal verification, control theory, etc.), we offer a
unifying account. In particular, we emphasize the role of order-theoretic fixed
points---a classic topic in computer science---in the analysis of probabilistic
programs. This leads us to two new martingale-based techniques, too. We give
rigorous proofs for their soundness and completeness. We also make an
experimental comparison using our implementation of template-based synthesis
algorithms for those martingales
A Stronger Bell Argument for Quantum Non-Locality
It is widely accepted that the violation of Bell inequalities excludes local theories of the quantum realm. This paper presents a stronger Bell argument which even forbids certain non-local theories. The remaining non-local theories, which can violate Bell inequalities, are characterised by the fact that at least one of the outcomes in some sense probabilistically depends both on its distant as well as on its local parameter. While this is not to say that parameter dependence in the usual sense necessarily holds, it shows that the received analysis of quantum non-locality as “outcome dependence or parameter dependence” is deeply misleading about what the violation of Bell inequalities implies
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