5 research outputs found
Surprise: An Alternative Qualitative Uncertainty Model
This dissertation embodies a study of the concept of surprise as a base for constructing qualitative calculi for representing and reasoning about uncertain knowledge. Two functions are presented, kappa++} and z, which construct qualitative ranks for events by obtaining the order of magnitude abstraction of the degree of surprise associated with them. The functions use natural numbers to classify events based their associated surprise and aim at providing a ranking that improves those provided by existing ranking functions. This in turn enables the use of such functions in an a la carte probabilistic system where one can choose the level of detail required to represent uncertain knowledge depending on the requirements of the application. The proposed ranking functions are defined along with surprise-update models associated with them. The reasoning mechanisms associated with the functions are developed mathematically and graphically. The advantages and expected limitations of both functions are compared with respect to each other and with existing ranking functions in the context of a bioinformatics application known as \u27\u27reverse engineering of genetic regulatory networks\u27\u27 in which the relations among various genetic components are discovered through the examination of a large amount of collected data. The ranking functions are examined in this context via graphical models which are exclusively developed or this purpose and which utilize the developed functions to represent uncertain knowledge at various levels of details
Recommended from our members
Making sense of making sense: A microgenetic multiple case study of five students’ developing conceptual compounds related to physics
The research reported in this thesis arose from a comment made by a student who had achieved highly in examinations yet felt that science: ‘doesn’t make sense’. Different conceptualisations of learning are analysed leading to the development of the concept of making sense as the formation or modification of a conceptual compound in which concepts are related in a coherent causal system that may be transferred to novel situations. This definition is situated within a constructivist epistemology. The research question asks how students make sense of physics concepts in dynamics and electricity. Five 17-18 year-old students, conceptualised as a multiple case study, were selected from an English secondary school using purposeful sampling. The students were interviewed once a week for 22 weeks in sessions using a range of probes such as interviews about instances, concept maps and concept inventory questions. It is assumed that data collection occurred at a frequency that was high relative to the rate of conceptual change, hence, the work is conceptulaised as microgenetic. The analysis focuses on the development of the students’: a) ontologies of concepts from concrete instances towards abstractions; b) conceptual structures from temporary organisations to more stable structures; c) understanding of causality from focused on macroscopic objects to abstract concepts; d) judgments of coherence; f) conceptual change modeled as an alteration in the ‘oftenness’ of application of a concept in a given context; and e) ability to apply concepts to novel contexts. The implications of these findings for teaching and future research are discussed