Rapid methods of landslide hazard mapping : Fiji case study

A landslide hazard probability map can help planners (1) prepare for, and/or mitigate against, the effects of landsliding on communities and infrastructure, and (2) avoid or minimise the risks associated with new developments. The aims of the project were to establish, by means of studies in a few test areas, a generic method by which remote sensing and data analysis using a geographic information system (GIS) could provide a provisional landslide hazard zonation map. The provision of basic hazard information is an underpinning theme of the UN’s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). It is an essential requirement for disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. This report forms part of BGS project 92/7 (R5554) ‘Rapid assessment of landslip hazards’ Carried out under the ODA/BGS Technology Development and Research Programme as part of the British Government’s provision of aid to developing countries. It provides a detailed technical account of work undertaken in a test area in Viti Levu in collaboration with Fiji Mineral Resources Department. The study represents a demonstration of a methodology that is applicable to many developing countries. The underlying principle is that relationships between past landsliding events, interpreted from remote sensing, and factors such as the geology, relief, soils etc provide the basis for modelling where future landslides are most likely to occur. This is achieved using a GIS by ‘weighting’ each class of each variable (e.g. each lithology ‘class’ of the variable ‘geology’) according to the proportion of landslides occurring within it compared to the regional average. Combinations of variables, produced by summing the weights in individual classes, provide ‘models’ of landslide probability. The approach is empirical but has the advantage of potentially being able to provide regional scale hazard maps over large areas quickly and cheaply; this is unlikely to be achieved using conventional ground-based geotechnical methods. In Fiji, landslides are usually triggered by intense rain storms commonly associated with tropical cyclones. However, the regional distribution of landslides has not been mapped nor is it known how far geology and landscape influence the location and severity of landsliding events. The report discusses the remote sensing and GIS methodology, and describes the results of the pilot study over an area of 713 km2 in south east Viti Levu. The landslide model uses geology, elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, soil type, and forest cover as inputs. The resulting provisional landslide hazard zonation map, divided into high, medium and low zones of landslide hazard probability, suggests that whilst rainfall is the immediate cause, others controls do exert a significant influence. It is recommended that consideration be given in Fiji to implementing the techniques as part of a national strategic plan for landslide hazard zonation mapping

Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

WA-RD 772.

Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows: results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (“TRIG rainfalls”) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (“NonTRIG rainfalls”) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity–Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot, and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Unstable Slope Management Program

INE/AUTC 11.1

Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

Natural disturbances and natural hazards in mountain forests: a framework for the economic valuation

This paper focuses on the economic aspects of the protective role of forests against natural hazards, developing an estimation methodology applicable on a local scale. We identified the main variables that influence on a local level those forest attributes involved directly or indirectly in protection with the aim of zoning forests in homogeneous areas in terms of the level of protection they offer. Applying the replacement cost method a monetary value of the protective function can be estimated for homogeneous zones. The zoning permits the cost of replacement works to be calculated precisely according to the characteristics of the territory in each zone. The methodology was tested in the province of Trento (North East Italy) in an area where forests serve multiple functions and where the social objectives are intimately linked to those of indirect protection of the mountain slopes and direct protection of human activities. The estimation of the protective function of mountain forests enables environmental concerns to be included in economic decision-making by integrating economic and ecological approaches. It could be useful as a criterion for ranking different forest management options, i.e. forest management approaches based on the principle of close-to-nature forestry with management forms that focus on the productive function of forests. Accordingly it could enable forest managers to build consensus around management forms that take into account natural hazards and natural disturbances.

A GIS-based procedure for landslide intensity evaluation and specific risk analysis supported by persistent scatterers interferometry (PSI)

The evaluation of landslide specific risk, defined as the expected degree of loss due to landslides, requires the parameterization and the combination of a number of socio-economic and geological factors, which often needs the interaction of different skills and expertise (geologists, engineers, planners, administrators, etc.). The specific risk sub-components, i.e., hazard and vulnerability of elements at risk, can be determined with different levels of detail depending on the available auxiliary data and knowledge of the territory. These risk factors are subject to short-term variations and nowadays turn out to be easily mappable and evaluable through remotely sensed data and GIS (Geographic Information System) tools. In this work, we propose a qualitative approach at municipal scale for producing a “specific risk” map, supported by recent satellite PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry) data derived from SENTINEL-1 C-band images in the spanning time 2014–2017, implemented in a GIS environment. In particular, PSI measurements are useful for the updating of a landslide inventory map of the area of interest and are exploited for the zonation map of the intensity of ground movements, needed for evaluating the vulnerability over the study area. Our procedure is presented throughout the application to the Volterra basin and the output map could be useful to support the local authorities with updated basic information required for environmental knowledge and planning at municipal level. Moreover, the proposed procedure is easily managed and repeatable in other case studies, as well as exploiting different SAR sensors in L- or X-band

Spatiotemporal evolution, mineralogical composition, and transport mechanisms of long-runout landslides in Valles Marineris, Mars

Long-runout landslides with transport distances of >50 km are ubiquitous in Valles Marineris (VM), yet the transport mechanisms remain poorly understood. Four decades of studies reveal significant variation in landslide morphology and emplacement age, but how these variations are related to landslide transport mechanisms is not clear. In this study, we address this question by conducting systematic geological mapping and compositional analysis of VM long-runout landslides using high-resolution Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter imagery and spectral data. Our work shows that: (1) a two-zone morphological division (i.e., an inner zone characterized by rotated blocks and an outer zone expressed by a thin sheet with a nearly flat surface) characterizes all major VM landslides; (2) landslide mobility is broadly dependent on landslide mass; and (3) the maximum width of the outer zone and its transport distance are inversely related to the basal friction that was estimated from the surface slope angle of the outer zone. Our comprehensive Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) compositional analysis indicates that hydrated silicates are common in landslide outer zones and nearby trough-floor deposits. Furthermore, outer zones containing hydrated minerals are sometimes associated with longer runout and increased lateral spreading compared to those without detectable hydrated minerals. Finally, with one exception we find that hydrated minerals are absent in the inner zones of the investigated VM landslides. These results as whole suggest that hydrated minerals may have contributed to the magnitude of lateral spreading and long-distance forward transport of major VM landslides

A study of stability analysis of pyroclastic covers based on electrical resistivity measurements

Usually, the degree of stability of a slope is quantified by the Factor of Safety whose values depend on physical and mechanical soil properties analyzed on samples of much reduced sizes or referring to very small soil volumes around porous probes. To overcome the limit of punctual information, we propose a semi-empirical approach based on the use of geophysical methods and the employment of a geophysical Factor of Safety recently introduced by the authors in terms of local resistivities and slope angles. In this paper, we show an application of our proposal on a test area of about 2000 m2 on Sarno Mountains (Campania Region - Southern Italy), where shallow landslides involving pyroclastic soils periodically occur triggered by critical rainfall events. Starting from two resistivity tomography surveys performed on the test area in autumn and spring, we obtained maps of the geophysical Factor of Safety at different depths for the two seasons. We also estimated the values of the Factor of Safety by using the infinite slope model in the dry and saturated scenario. A comparison between the values of the geophysical and geotechnical Factor of Safety shows advantages and disadvantages of our approach.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure