Active Classification for POMDPs: a Kalman-like State Estimator

The problem of state tracking with active observation control is considered for a system modeled by a discrete-time, finite-state Markov chain observed through conditionally Gaussian measurement vectors. The measurement model statistics are shaped by the underlying state and an exogenous control input, which influence the observations' quality. Exploiting an innovations approach, an approximate minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) filter is derived to estimate the Markov chain system state. To optimize the control strategy, the associated mean-squared error is used as an optimization criterion in a partially observable Markov decision process formulation. A stochastic dynamic programming algorithm is proposed to solve for the optimal solution. To enhance the quality of system state estimates, approximate MMSE smoothing estimators are also derived. Finally, the performance of the proposed framework is illustrated on the problem of physical activity detection in wireless body sensing networks. The power of the proposed framework lies within its ability to accommodate a broad spectrum of active classification applications including sensor management for object classification and tracking, estimation of sparse signals and radar scheduling.Comment: 38 pages, 6 figure

Particle-based likelihood inference in partially observed diffusion processes using generalised Poisson estimators

This paper concerns the use of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inference in partially observed diffusion processes. In this context, a well known problem is that all except a few diffusion processes lack closed-form expressions of the transition densities. Thus, in order to estimate efficiently the EM intermediate quantity we construct, using novel techniques for unbiased estimation of diffusion transition densities, a random weight fixed-lag auxiliary particle smoother, which avoids the well known problem of particle trajectory degeneracy in the smoothing mode. The estimator is justified theoretically and demonstrated on a simulated example

Newton-based maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear state space models

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We explore two approximations of the log-likelihood and of the solution of the smoothing problem. The first is a linearization approximation which is computationally cheap, but the accuracy typically varies between models. The second is a sampling approximation which is asymptotically valid for any SSM but is more computationally costly. We demonstrate our approach for ML parameter estimation on simulated data from two different SSMs with encouraging results.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for the 17th IFAC Symposium on System Identification (SYSID), Beijing, China, October 201

Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

Inference via low-dimensional couplings

We investigate the low-dimensional structure of deterministic transformations between random variables, i.e., transport maps between probability measures. In the context of statistics and machine learning, these transformations can be used to couple a tractable "reference" measure (e.g., a standard Gaussian) with a target measure of interest. Direct simulation from the desired measure can then be achieved by pushing forward reference samples through the map. Yet characterizing such a map---e.g., representing and evaluating it---grows challenging in high dimensions. The central contribution of this paper is to establish a link between the Markov properties of the target measure and the existence of low-dimensional couplings, induced by transport maps that are sparse and/or decomposable. Our analysis not only facilitates the construction of transformations in high-dimensional settings, but also suggests new inference methodologies for continuous non-Gaussian graphical models. For instance, in the context of nonlinear state-space models, we describe new variational algorithms for filtering, smoothing, and sequential parameter inference. These algorithms can be understood as the natural generalization---to the non-Gaussian case---of the square-root Rauch-Tung-Striebel Gaussian smoother.Comment: 78 pages, 25 figure