Structural Econometric Methods in Auctions: A Guide to the Literature

Auction models have proved to be attractive to structural econometricians who, since the late 1980s, have made substantial progress in identifying and estimating these rich game-theoretic models of bidder behavior. We provide a guide to the literature in which we contrast the various informational structures (paradigms) commonly assumed by researchers and uncover the evolution of the eld. We highlight major contributions within each paradigm and benchmark modi cations and extensions to these core models. Lastly, we discuss special topics that have received substantial attention among auction researchers in recent years, including auctions formultiple objects, auctions with risk averse bidders, testing between common and private value paradigms, unobserved auction-speci c heterogeneity, and accounting for an unobserved number of bidders as well as endogenous entry

Are Estimates of Asymmetric First-Price Auction Models Credible? Semi & Nonparametric Scrutinizations

Structural first-price auction estimation methods, built upon Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE), have provided prolific empirical findings. However, due to the latent nature of underlying valuations, the assumption of BNE is not feasibly testable with field data, a fact that evokes harsh criticism on the literature. To respond to skepticism regarding credibility, we provide a focused answer by scrutinizing estimates derived from experimental asymmetric auction data in which researchers observe valuations. We test the statistical equivalence between the estimated and true value distributions. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test fails to reject the distributional equivalence, strongly supporting the credibility of structural asymmetric auction estimates

Public procurement auctions in Brazil

This thesis provides an empirical analysis of data generated by ComprasNet, the online procurement bidding platform developed and used by the Brazilian federal government. ComprasNet is a large bidding platform used since 2001 by more than 2200 public purchasing units who list around one million lots each year. Over 70,000 unique bidders have participated in these auctions. In 2010, 46 percent of all procurement for the federal government was conducted through ComprasNet, totaling R$ 27 billion, or 0.7 percent of Brazil’s GDP. In short, these auctions represent a large share of federal tenders and a substantial amount is contracted through them each year. Chapter 1 provides an overview of ComprasNet. After reviewing the literature on various topics which this dissertation contributes to, I describe the institutional background surrounding ComprasNet. I then present the baseline data used throughout the remainder of this dissertation. Chapter 2 addresses one important aspect of designing an online ascending auction, namely how to end the auction. ComprasNet varied its ending rules over time, providing an unique opportunity to test theories of bidder behaviour, as well as assessing the impact of ending rules on auction outcomes. Chapter 3 analyses a two-stage auction format which ComprasNet uses. Two-stage designs have long been proposed by the theoretical literature, but there are virtually no empirical works apart from experimental studies. Finally, chapter 4 analyses a bid preference programme targeted at small and micro enterprises (SMEs). The programme consists of setting aside eligible lots for SMEs. We first use eligibility rules as a source of exogenous variation in the treatment assignment to estimate the effects of the programme on auction outcomes. We then set up an open auction model with endogenous entry and asymmetric bidders and estimate the model’s primitives. In particular, we estimate entry costs, which we interpret as red tape costs

Structural Econometric Methods in Auctions: A Guide to the Literature

Auction models have proved to be attractive to structural econometricians who, since the late 1980s, have made substantial progress in identifying and estimating these rich game-theoretic models of bidder behavior. We provide a guide to the literature in which we contrast the various informational structures (paradigms) commonly assumed by researchers and uncover the evolution of the eld. We highlight major contributions within each paradigm and benchmark modi cations and extensions to these core models. Lastly, we discuss special topics that have received substantial attention among auction researchers in recent years, including auctions formultiple objects, auctions with risk averse bidders, testing between common and private value paradigms, unobserved auction-speci c heterogeneity, and accounting for an unobserved number of bidders as well as endogenous entry

Are Estimates of Asymmetric First-Price Auction Models Credible? Semi & Nonparametric Scrutinizations

Structural first-price auction estimation methods, built upon Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE), have provided prolific empirical findings. However, due to the latent nature of underlying valuations, the assumption of BNE is not feasibly testable with field data, a fact that evokes harsh criticism on the literature. To respond to skepticism regarding credibility, we provide a focused answer by scrutinizing estimates derived from experimental asymmetric auction data in which researchers observe valuations. We test the statistical equivalence between the estimated and true value distributions. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test fails to reject the distributional equivalence, strongly supporting the credibility of structural asymmetric auction estimates

What Model for Entry in First-Price Auctions? A Nonparametric Approach

We develop a nonparametric approach that allows for discrimination among alternative models of entry in first-price auctions. Three models of entry are considered: those of Levin and Smith (1994), Samuelson (1985), and a new model in which the information received at the entry stage is imperfectly correlated with bidder valuations. We derive testable restrictions of these models based on how the pro-competitive selection effect shifts bidder valuation quantiles in response to an increase in the number of potential bidders.First-price auctions, models of entry, selective entry, selection effect, nonparametric estimation, quantiles

Small Business Set-asides in Procurement Auctions: An Empirical Analysis

As part of public procurement, many governments adopt small business programs to pro- vide contract opportunities for businesses often with preferences for firms operated by mem- bers of groups designated as disadvantaged. The redistribution arising from such programs, however, can introduce significant added costs to government procurement budgets. In this paper, the extent to which small business set-asides increase government procurement costs is examined. The estimates employ data on Japanese public construction projects, where approximately half of the procurement budget is set aside for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Applying a positive relationship between profitability and firm size obtained by the non-parametric estimation of asymmetric first-price auctions with affiliated private values, a counterfactual simulation is undertaken to demonstrate that approximately 40 percent of SMEs would exit the procurement market if set-asides were to be removed. Surprisingly, the resulting lack of competition would increase government procurement costs more than it would offset the production cost inefficiency.

Assessing the Performance of Simple Contracts Empirically: The Case of Percentage Fees

This paper estimates the cost of using simple percentage fees rather than the broker optimal Bayesian mechanism, using data for real estate transactions in Boston in the mid-1990s. This counterfactual analysis shows that interme- diaries using the best percentage fee mechanisms with fees ranging from 5.4% to 7.4% achieve 85% or more of the maximum profit. With the empirically observed 6% fees intermediaries achieve at least 83% of the maximum profit and with an optimally structured linear fee, they achieve 98% or more of the maximum profit

Small Business Set-asides in Procurement Auctions: An Empirical Analysis

As part of public procurement, many governments adopt small business programs to provide contract opportunities for businesses often with preferences for firms operated by members of groups designated as disadvantaged. The redistribution arising from such programs, however, can introduce significant added costs to government procurement budgets. In this paper, the extent to which small business set-asides increase government procurement costs is examined. The estimates employ data on Japanese public construction projects, where approximately half of the procurement budget is set aside for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Applying a positive relationship between profitability and firm size obtained by the non-parametric estimation of asymmetric first-price auctions with affiliated private values, a counterfactual simulation is undertaken to demonstrate that approximately 40 percent of SMEs would exit the procurement market if set-asides were to be removed. Surprisingly, the resulting lack of competition would increase government procurement costs more than it would offset the production cost inefficiency.procurement auctions, small business set-asides, structural estimation of auctions