Ambulance Emergency Response Optimization in Developing Countries

The lack of emergency medical transportation is viewed as the main barrier to the access of emergency medical care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this paper, we present a robust optimization approach to optimize both the location and routing of emergency response vehicles, accounting for uncertainty in travel times and spatial demand characteristic of LMICs. We traveled to Dhaka, Bangladesh, the sixth largest and third most densely populated city in the world, to conduct field research resulting in the collection of two unique datasets that inform our approach. This data is leveraged to develop machine learning methodologies to estimate demand for emergency medical services in a LMIC setting and to predict the travel time between any two locations in the road network for different times of day and days of the week. We combine our robust optimization and machine learning frameworks with real data to provide an in-depth investigation into three policy-related questions. First, we demonstrate that outpost locations optimized for weekday rush hour lead to good performance for all times of day and days of the week. Second, we find that significant improvements in emergency response times can be achieved by re-locating a small number of outposts and that the performance of the current system could be replicated using only 30% of the resources. Lastly, we show that a fleet of small motorcycle-based ambulances has the potential to significantly outperform traditional ambulance vans. In particular, they are able to capture three times more demand while reducing the median response time by 42% due to increased routing flexibility offered by nimble vehicles on a larger road network. Our results provide practical insights for emergency response optimization that can be leveraged by hospital-based and private ambulance providers in Dhaka and other urban centers in LMICs

Robust Transport over Networks

We consider transportation over a strongly connected, directed graph. The scheduling amounts to selecting transition probabilities for a discrete-time Markov evolution which is designed to be consistent with initial and final marginal constraints on mass transport. We address the situation where initially the mass is concentrated on certain nodes and needs to be transported over a certain time period to another set of nodes, possibly disjoint from the first. The evolution is selected to be closest to a {\em prior} measure on paths in the relative entropy sense--such a construction is known as a Schroedinger bridge between the two given marginals. It may be viewed as an atypical stochastic control problem where the control consists in suitably modifying the prior transition mechanism. The prior can be chosen to incorporate constraints and costs for traversing specific edges of the graph, but it can also be selected to allocate equal probability to all paths of equal length connecting any two nodes (i.e., a uniform distribution on paths). This latter choice for prior transitions relies on the so-called Ruelle-Bowen random walker and gives rise to scheduling that tends to utilize all paths as uniformly as the topology allows. Thus, this Ruelle-Bowen law (${\mathfrak M}_{\rm RB}$) taken as prior, leads to a transportation plan that tends to lessen congestion and ensures a level of robustness. We also show that the distribution ${\mathfrak M}_{\rm RB}$ on paths, which attains the maximum entropy rate for the random walker given by the topological entropy, can itself be obtained as the time-homogeneous solution of a maximum entropy problem for measures on paths (also a Schr\"{o}dinger bridge problem, albeit with prior that is not a probability measure). Finally we show that the paradigm of Schr\"odinger bridges as a mechanism for scheduling transport on networks can be adapted to graphs that are not strongly connected, as well as to weighted graphs. In the latter case, our approach may be used to design a transportation plan which effectively compromises between robustness and other criteria such as cost. Indeed, we explicitly provide a robust transportation plan which assigns {\em maximum probability} to {\em minimum cost paths} and therefore compares favorably with Optimal Mass Transportation strategies

Route Planning in Transportation Networks

We survey recent advances in algorithms for route planning in transportation networks. For road networks, we show that one can compute driving directions in milliseconds or less even at continental scale. A variety of techniques provide different trade-offs between preprocessing effort, space requirements, and query time. Some algorithms can answer queries in a fraction of a microsecond, while others can deal efficiently with real-time traffic. Journey planning on public transportation systems, although conceptually similar, is a significantly harder problem due to its inherent time-dependent and multicriteria nature. Although exact algorithms are fast enough for interactive queries on metropolitan transit systems, dealing with continent-sized instances requires simplifications or heavy preprocessing. The multimodal route planning problem, which seeks journeys combining schedule-based transportation (buses, trains) with unrestricted modes (walking, driving), is even harder, relying on approximate solutions even for metropolitan inputs.Comment: This is an updated version of the technical report MSR-TR-2014-4, previously published by Microsoft Research. This work was mostly done while the authors Daniel Delling, Andrew Goldberg, and Renato F. Werneck were at Microsoft Research Silicon Valle

Macroscopic modelling and robust control of bi-modal multi-region urban road networks

The paper concerns the integration of a bi-modal Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) modelling for mixed traffic in a robust control framework for congested single- and multi-region urban networks. The bi-modal MFD relates the accumulation of cars and buses and the outflow (or circulating flow) in homogeneous (both in the spatial distribution of congestion and the spatial mode mixture) bi-modal traffic networks. We introduce the composition of traffic in the network as a parameter that affects the shape of the bi-modal MFD. A linear parameter varying model with uncertain parameter the vehicle composition approximates the original nonlinear system of aggregated dynamics when it is near the equilibrium point for single- and multi-region cities governed by bi-modal MFDs. This model aims at designing a robust perimeter and boundary flow controller for single- and multi-region networks that guarantees robust regulation and stability, and thus smooth and efficient operations, given that vehicle composition is a slow time-varying parameter. The control gain of the robust controller is calculated off-line using convex optimisation. To evaluate the proposed scheme, an extensive simulation-based study for single- and multi-region networks is carried out. To this end, the heterogeneous network of San Francisco where buses and cars share the same infrastructure is partitioned into two homogeneous regions with different modes of composition. The proposed robust control is compared with an optimised pre-timed signal plan and a single-region perimeter control strategy. Results show that the proposed robust control can significantly: (i) reduce the overall congestion in the network; (ii) improve the traffic performance of buses in terms of travel delays and schedule reliability, and; (iii) avoid queues and gridlocks on critical paths of the network

Efficient robust routing for single commodity network flows

We study single commodity network flows with suitable robustness and efficiency specs. An original use of a maximum entropy problem for distributions on the paths of the graph turns this problem into a steering problem for Markov chains with prescribed initial and final marginals. From a computational standpoint, viewing scheduling this way is especially attractive in light of the existence of an iterative algorithm to compute the solution. The present paper builds on [13] by introducing an index of efficiency of a transportation plan and points, accordingly, to efficient-robust transport policies. In developing the theory, we establish two new invariance properties of the solution (called bridge) \u2013 an iterated bridge invariance property and the invariance of the most probable paths. These properties, which were tangentially mentioned in our previous work, are fully developed here. We also show that the distribution on paths of the optimal transport policy, which depends on a \u201ctemperature\u201d parameter, tends to the solution of the \u201cmost economical\u201d but possibly less robust optimal mass transport problem as the temperature goes to zero. The relevance of all of these properties for transport over networks is illustrated in an example