(FUZZY LOGIC AND APLLICATIONS IN GEOPHYSICS: A SEISMOLOGY EXAMPLE

Bulanık mantık, teknolojinin de etkisiyle son yıllarda birçok problemin çözümünde yaygın olarak kullanılan yöntemlerden biridir. Doğada kesin olarak tanımlanamayan birçok olayın bulanık mantık yardımıyla çözümleri mümkün hale gelmiştir. Uygulama alanının geniş olması ve birçok problemin çözümünde başarılı sonuçların elde edilmesi bu yönteme olan ilgiyi arttırmıştır.Bulanık mantığın jeofizik alanındaki uygulamaları da giderek artmaktadır. Özellikle sismik, elektromanyetik ve özdirenç gibi yöntemlerin ters çözümünde ayrıca parametre tayini ve ön kestirim gibi uygulamalarda kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada bulanık mantığın günümüze kadar olan jeofizik uygulamaları derlenmiş ve yaygın olarak kullanım amaçları özetlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Batı Anadolu deprem katalog verilerinin Uyarlanabilir Yapay Sinir-Bulanık Mantık Çıkarım Sistemi (Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System) (UYBÇS) ile değerlendirilmesi üzerine örnek bir çalışmaya yer verilmiştir. With the effect of advancing technology, Fuzzy logic has become one of the most common methods used in solving problems during the recent years. Solutions of the many ill defined/unidentified events in nature/earth are made possible by means of fuzzy logic. Wide ranges of applications and obtaining successful results are caused the increasing interest on this method.Applications of Fuzzy logic on Geophysics are also increasing day by day. It is used on particularly inversion of seismic, electromagnetic and resistivity data, prediction of some physical parameters and estimation studies. The aim of this study is to compile the articles which are about Fuzzy logic application on geophysics and to summarize its intended purpose. Analyzing of the Earthquake data of Western Anatolia Using with Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System, is given an example of this method as a seismological application

Dynamic risk-based analysis of petroleum reservoir production systems

Petroleum reservoirs are complex process systems defined by intrinsically uncertain data and a distinct pressure gradient. The upstream sector’s assets are with huge uncertainties and high risks. Thus, the investments in these complex geologic process systems majorly suffer severe dynamic risks due to the process’ complex dynamics, process data’s temporal and spatial variabilities, and data/model’s uncertainties. Over time, the complex dynamic risks of the reservoir production system have resulted in unforeseen severe production fluctuations, total process system failures, and/or abrupt well shut-in due to uncontrollable circumstances. Hence, the need to introduce a multipurpose dynamic risk-based smart production prognostic approach to address the outlined inherent petroleum production challenges. This thesis presents dynamic risks assessment models for dynamic risks-based analysis of petroleum reservoir production systems. Different possible production scenarios are captured with the developed adaptive hybrid model with the following highlighted novel scientific contributions. Firstly, a dynamic risk-based predictive model is introduced to forecast production and capture the parameters variabilities, data and model’s uncertainties, and dynamic risks of primary recovery processes. This is followed with an introduced novel model for dynamic risks monitoring and production forecast of secondary recovery processes. A novel model is also presented to incorporate dual reservoir energy support mechanisms in production predictions and associated dynamic risks forecast under lift mechanisms. In addition, a dynamic economic risks analysis model is proposed to consider economic risk assessment of the reservoir production systems. Lastly, a dynamic risks-based smart model is proposed to capture sand face pressure enhancement influence on the reservoir production system with production pump schemes

A Probabilistic Stochastic Income Distribution Model of Coal Mining Industry

Coal mining is a profitable enterprise. It creates job opportunities, generates revenue, and attract the foreign investment of a country. However, coal mining faces some challenges. To address the allocation of capital related to coal mining, an approach has been made to improve the impact of coal mining industry on the economy of one of Indonesia most important coal producing region, south Kalimantan. A total of seven households of large-scale and small-scale mining are analyzed in the study. Various copula-based prediction probability models were established, and the exponential distribution function of household income distribution was obtained with maximum range by utilizing the application of Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, this research spells out the importance of income distribution of various household dynamics which will help the policy maker in economic analysis and financial decisions related to various household categorie

Human reliability analysis: exploring the intellectual structure of a research field

Humans play a crucial role in modern socio-technical systems. Rooted in reliability engineering, the discipline of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) has been broadly applied in a variety of domains in order to understand, manage and prevent the potential for human errors. This paper investigates the existing literature pertaining to HRA and aims to provide clarity in the research field by synthesizing the literature in a systematic way through systematic bibliometric analyses. The multi-method approach followed in this research combines factor analysis, multi-dimensional scaling, and bibliometric mapping to identify main HRA research areas. This document reviews over 1200 contributions, with the ultimate goal of identifying current research streams and outlining the potential for future research via a large-scale analysis of contributions indexed in Scopus database

Seleção de sistemas de produção marítimos considerando incertezas

Orientador: Celso Kazuyuki MorookaDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecânicaResumo: O desenvolvimento de um campo marítimo petrolífero é um projeto complexo e arriscado. Um problema central nesta tarefa é a seleção de um sistema de produção que ma-ximize a recuperação de óleo e minimize os investimentos e custos operacionais enquanto satisfaz restrições externas, econômicas, ambientais, sociais e tecnológicas em um cenário de incertezas. Diversos estudos abordam tal problema na literatura, entretanto eles não conside-ram incertezas nos dados de entrada, nem justificam objetivamente a alternativa escolhida dentre as demais possíveis. Aqui, é proposto selecionar um sistema marítimo de produção utilizando um sistema inteligente que considere incertezas nos dados de entrada e que selecio-ne a melhor alternativa de maneira racional. Através da avaliação de estudos de caso e da comparação dos resultados obtidos com estudos anteriores e da situação real, conclui-se que o método pode obter a solução ótima em situações onde outros não podemAbstract: The development of an offshore oilfield is a complex and risky project. One core problem in this task is the selection of a production system that maximizes oil recovery and minimizes investments and operational costs while meeting external, economic, environmental, societal and technological demands in a scenario of uncertainties. Several studies address this problem in the literature; however, they do not consider uncertainties in the initial data neither justify objectively the chosen alternative among other feasible ones. Here, it is proposed to select an offshore production system using an intelligent system that considers input uncertainties and chooses the best alternative in a rational manner. By evaluating case studies and comparing the results obtained with previous studies and real scenarios, it is concluded that the method can obtain the optimal solution in situations where others cannotMestradoExplotaçãoMestre em Ciências e Engenharia de Petróleo131165/2017-8CNP

The target selection and quantitative evaluation for deep geothermal resource zoning of typical geothermal fields in central Hebei of North China plain

With the rapid economic development in North China, the demand for geothermal energy is increasing. It is urgent to find favorable deep geothermal resource targets in North China. Although geothermal resources in the North China Plain are widely distributed, in order to develop deep geothermal resources in North China safely, stably and efficiently, it is essential to carry out the target selection and evaluation of geothermal resource zoning. This article takes the typical geothermal fields in the central Hebei region as the research object, and through the comprehensive collation of regional geothermal geological data, constructs an optimization evaluation indicator system for geothermal resource target areas from three aspects: resource conditions, mining potential, and heating demand. On this basis, it establishes a linear relationship between the attribute values and scores of each indicator, and uses the analytic hierarchy process to assign weights to each indicator and calculate the comprehensive weight. Then, the comprehensive evaluation value is obtained by weighted calculation of the scores and comprehensive weights of each block in the grid segmentation of the evaluation area. Finally, through the spatial analysis function of GIS, the comprehensive evaluation values of all blocks in the evaluation area were analyzed using kriging difference analysis, and a comprehensive evaluation map, the geothermal resource prospective target area map, was finally obtained. Using quantitative zoning evaluation methods, the target areas for exploration and development of deep geothermal resources in central Hebei Province have been delineated within a large region. The evaluation results indicate that the Cambrian-Ordovician reservoir target area is relatively large, and there are many favorable target areas with good reservoir conditions in the Middle-Upper Proterozoic. The excellent prospective target area of the Mesoproterozoic geothermal reservoir accounts for 56%, mainly located in the Xingji uplift and Gaoyang low uplift. Xiong’an New Area, Cangzhou, and the eastern part of Hengshui are excellent prospective target areas for the evaluation of the Mesoproterozoic geothermal reservoir in a single area. This evaluation method can provide a reference for the optimization of resource exploration and development target areas in key regions