Double Ensemble Approaches to Predicting Firms’ Credit Rating

Several rating agencies such as Standard & Poor\u27s (S&P), Moody\u27s and Fitch Ratings have evaluated firms’ credit rating. Since lots of fees are required by the agencies and sometimes the timely default risk of the firms is not reflected, it can be helpful for stakeholders if the credit ratings can be predicted before the agencies publish them. However, it is not easy to make an accurate prediction of credit rating since it covers a variety of range. Therefore, this study proposes two double ensemble approaches, 1) bagging-boosting and 2) boosting-bagging, to improve the prediction accuracy. To that end, we first conducted feature selection, using Chi-Square and Gain-Ratio attribute evaluators, with 3 classification algorithms (i.e., decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and Naïve Bayesian (NB)) to select relevant features and a base classifier of ensemble models. And then, we integrated bagging and boosting methods by applying boosting method to bagging method (bagging-boosting), and bagging method to boosting method (boosting-bagging). Finally, we compared the prediction accuracy of our proposed model to benchmark models. The experimental results showed that our proposed models outperformed the benchmark models

Corporate bankruptcy prediction: a comparison of logistic regression and random forest on portuguese company data

In the currentfield ofbankruptcy prediction studies, the geographical focus usually is on larger economiesrather than economies the size of Portugal. For the purpose of this studyfinancial statement data from five consecutive years prior to the event of bankruptcy in 2017 was selected. Within the data328,542healthy and unhealthy Portuguese companieswere included.Two predictive models using the Logistic Regression and Random Forest algorithm were fitted to be able to predict bankruptcy.Both developed models deliver good results even though the RandomForestmodel performs slightly better than the one based on Logistic Regression

A Hybrid Random Forest based Support Vector Machine Classification Supplemented by Boosting

This paper presents an approach to classify remote sensed data using a hybrid classifier. Random forest, Support Vector machines and boosting methods are used to build the said hybrid classifier. The central idea is to subdivide the input data set into smaller subsets and classify individual subsets. The individual subset classification is done using support vector machines classifier. Boosting is used at each subset to evaluate the learning by using a weight factor for every data item in the data set. The weight factor is updated based on classification accuracy. Later the final outcome for the complete data set is computed by implementing a majority voting mechanism to the individual subset classification outcomes

A Hybrid Technological Innovation Text Mining, Ensemble Learning and Risk Scorecard Approach for Enterprise Credit Risk Assessment

Enterprise credit risk assessment models typically use financial-based information as a predictor variable, relying on backward-looking historical information rather than forward-looking information for risk assessment. We propose a novel hybrid assessment of credit risk that uses technological innovation information as a predictor variable. Text mining techniques are used to extract this information for each enterprise. A combination of random forest and extreme gradient boosting are used for indicator screening, and finally, risk scorecard based on logistic regression is used for credit risk scoring. Our results show that technological innovation indicators obtained through text mining provide valuable information for credit risk assessment, and that the combination of ensemble learning from random forest and extreme gradient boosting combinations with logistic regression models outperforms other traditional methods. The best results achieved 0.9129 area under receiver operating characteristic. In addition, our approach provides meaningful scoring rules for credit risk assessment of technology innovation enterprises

A Hybrid Random Forest based Support Vector Machine Classification Supplemented by Boosting

This paper presents an approach to classify remote sensed data using a hybrid classifier. Random forest, Support Vector machines and boosting methods are used to build the said hybrid classifier. The central idea is to subdivide the input data set into smaller subsets and classify individual subsets. The individual subset classification is done using support vector machines classifier. Boosting is used at each subset to evaluate the learning by using a weight factor for every data item in the data set. The weight factor is updated based on classification accuracy. Later the final outcome for the complete data set is computed by implementing a majority voting mechanism to the individual subset classification outcomes

An academic review: applications of data mining techniques in finance industry

With the development of Internet techniques, data volumes are doubling every two years, faster than predicted by Moore’s Law. Big Data Analytics becomes particularly important for enterprise business. Modern computational technologies will provide effective tools to help understand hugely accumulated data and leverage this information to get insights into the finance industry. In order to get actionable insights into the business, data has become most valuable asset of financial organisations, as there are no physical products in finance industry to manufacture. This is where data mining techniques come to their rescue by allowing access to the right information at the right time. These techniques are used by the finance industry in various areas such as fraud detection, intelligent forecasting, credit rating, loan management, customer profiling, money laundering, marketing and prediction of price movements to name a few. This work aims to survey the research on data mining techniques applied to the finance industry from 2010 to 2015.The review finds that Stock prediction and Credit rating have received most attention of researchers, compared to Loan prediction, Money Laundering and Time Series prediction. Due to the dynamics, uncertainty and variety of data, nonlinear mapping techniques have been deeply studied than linear techniques. Also it has been proved that hybrid methods are more accurate in prediction, closely followed by Neural Network technique. This survey could provide a clue of applications of data mining techniques for finance industry, and a summary of methodologies for researchers in this area. Especially, it could provide a good vision of Data Mining Techniques in computational finance for beginners who want to work in the field of computational finance

Credit Risk Evaluation on Technological SMEs in China

China’s reform and opening-up policies have prioritized technological advancement, with technological SMEs driving employment and economic growth. Despite their significance, these SMEs face substantial financing and operational risks due to inadequate credit measurement tools. This study reviews the historical financing challenges of technological SMEs since the 1980s, summarizes their current credit risk status, and compares four modern credit risk models: Credit Metrics, Credit Risk+, Credit Portfolio View, and KMV. We propose a pioneering KMV Strategy for real-time risk analysis, contributing to accurate credit metrics for these SMEs. Finally, we suggest policies for managing their credit risks through prevention, control, and governance