A Multi-Gene Genetic Programming Application for Predicting Students Failure at School

Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Also, the high number of factors, incomplete and unbalanced dataset, and black boxing issues as in Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic systems exposes the need for more efficient tools. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multi-gene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expressionComment: 14 pages, 9 figures, Journal paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1403.0623 by other author

Statistical significance of variables driving systematic variation

There are a number of well-established methods such as principal components analysis (PCA) for automatically capturing systematic variation due to latent variables in large-scale genomic data. PCA and related methods may directly provide a quantitative characterization of a complex biological variable that is otherwise difficult to precisely define or model. An unsolved problem in this context is how to systematically identify the genomic variables that are drivers of systematic variation captured by PCA. Principal components (and other estimates of systematic variation) are directly constructed from the genomic variables themselves, making measures of statistical significance artificially inflated when using conventional methods due to over-fitting. We introduce a new approach called the jackstraw that allows one to accurately identify genomic variables that are statistically significantly associated with any subset or linear combination of principal components (PCs). The proposed method can greatly simplify complex significance testing problems encountered in genomics and can be utilized to identify the genomic variables significantly associated with latent variables. Using simulation, we demonstrate that our method attains accurate measures of statistical significance over a range of relevant scenarios. We consider yeast cell-cycle gene expression data, and show that the proposed method can be used to straightforwardly identify statistically significant genes that are cell-cycle regulated. We also analyze gene expression data from post-trauma patients, allowing the gene expression data to provide a molecularly-driven phenotype. We find a greater enrichment for inflammatory-related gene sets compared to using a clinically defined phenotype. The proposed method provides a useful bridge between large-scale quantifications of systematic variation and gene-level significance analyses.Comment: 35 pages, 1 table, 6 main figures, 7 supplementary figure

Systems approaches and algorithms for discovery of combinatorial therapies

Effective therapy of complex diseases requires control of highly non-linear complex networks that remain incompletely characterized. In particular, drug intervention can be seen as control of signaling in cellular networks. Identification of control parameters presents an extreme challenge due to the combinatorial explosion of control possibilities in combination therapy and to the incomplete knowledge of the systems biology of cells. In this review paper we describe the main current and proposed approaches to the design of combinatorial therapies, including the empirical methods used now by clinicians and alternative approaches suggested recently by several authors. New approaches for designing combinations arising from systems biology are described. We discuss in special detail the design of algorithms that identify optimal control parameters in cellular networks based on a quantitative characterization of control landscapes, maximizing utilization of incomplete knowledge of the state and structure of intracellular networks. The use of new technology for high-throughput measurements is key to these new approaches to combination therapy and essential for the characterization of control landscapes and implementation of the algorithms. Combinatorial optimization in medical therapy is also compared with the combinatorial optimization of engineering and materials science and similarities and differences are delineated.Comment: 25 page

A hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning with application to multi-label learning

We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called H2PC. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. The algorithm is based on divide-and-conquer constraint-based subroutines to learn the local structure around a target variable. We conduct two series of experimental comparisons of H2PC against Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC), which is currently the most powerful state-of-the-art algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning. First, we use eight well-known Bayesian network benchmarks with various data sizes to assess the quality of the learned structure returned by the algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that H2PC outperforms MMHC in terms of goodness of fit to new data and quality of the network structure with respect to the true dependence structure of the data. Second, we investigate H2PC's ability to solve the multi-label learning problem. We provide theoretical results to characterize and identify graphically the so-called minimal label powersets that appear as irreducible factors in the joint distribution under the faithfulness condition. The multi-label learning problem is then decomposed into a series of multi-class classification problems, where each multi-class variable encodes a label powerset. H2PC is shown to compare favorably to MMHC in terms of global classification accuracy over ten multi-label data sets covering different application domains. Overall, our experiments support the conclusions that local structural learning with H2PC in the form of local neighborhood induction is a theoretically well-motivated and empirically effective learning framework that is well suited to multi-label learning. The source code (in R) of H2PC as well as all data sets used for the empirical tests are publicly available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1101.5184 by other author

Causality, Information and Biological Computation: An algorithmic software approach to life, disease and the immune system

Biology has taken strong steps towards becoming a computer science aiming at reprogramming nature after the realisation that nature herself has reprogrammed organisms by harnessing the power of natural selection and the digital prescriptive nature of replicating DNA. Here we further unpack ideas related to computability, algorithmic information theory and software engineering, in the context of the extent to which biology can be (re)programmed, and with how we may go about doing so in a more systematic way with all the tools and concepts offered by theoretical computer science in a translation exercise from computing to molecular biology and back. These concepts provide a means to a hierarchical organization thereby blurring previously clear-cut lines between concepts like matter and life, or between tumour types that are otherwise taken as different and may not have however a different cause. This does not diminish the properties of life or make its components and functions less interesting. On the contrary, this approach makes for a more encompassing and integrated view of nature, one that subsumes observer and observed within the same system, and can generate new perspectives and tools with which to view complex diseases like cancer, approaching them afresh from a software-engineering viewpoint that casts evolution in the role of programmer, cells as computing machines, DNA and genes as instructions and computer programs, viruses as hacking devices, the immune system as a software debugging tool, and diseases as an information-theoretic battlefield where all these forces deploy. We show how information theory and algorithmic programming may explain fundamental mechanisms of life and death.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures. Invited chapter contribution to Information and Causality: From Matter to Life. Sara I. Walker, Paul C.W. Davies and George Ellis (eds.), Cambridge University Pres

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of large currency swings that characterizes exchange rate policy of many emerging market economies. Moreover, the model suggests that the effects of political pressures on the exchange rate are lower if the quality of institutions is higher. Empirical evidence for a large sample of emerging market economies is consistent with these findings.exporters and financial lobbies, exchange rate stability

Receptor uptake arrays for vitamin B12, siderophores and glycans shape bacterial communities

Molecular variants of vitamin B12, siderophores and glycans occur. To take up variant forms, bacteria may express an array of receptors. The gut microbe Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron has three different receptors to take up variants of vitamin B12 and 88 receptors to take up various glycans. The design of receptor arrays reflects key processes that shape cellular evolution. Competition may focus each species on a subset of the available nutrient diversity. Some gut bacteria can take up only a narrow range of carbohydrates, whereas species such as B.~thetaiotaomicron can digest many different complex glycans. Comparison of different nutrients, habitats, and genomes provide opportunity to test hypotheses about the breadth of receptor arrays. Another important process concerns fluctuations in nutrient availability. Such fluctuations enhance the value of cellular sensors, which gain information about environmental availability and adjust receptor deployment. Bacteria often adjust receptor expression in response to fluctuations of particular carbohydrate food sources. Some species may adjust expression of uptake receptors for specific siderophores. How do cells use sensor information to control the response to fluctuations? That question about regulatory wiring relates to problems that arise in control theory and artificial intelligence. Control theory clarifies how to analyze environmental fluctuations in relation to the design of sensors and response systems. Recent advances in deep learning studies of artificial intelligence focus on the architecture of regulatory wiring and the ways in which complex control networks represent and classify environmental states. I emphasize the similar design problems that arise in cellular evolution, control theory, and artificial intelligence. I connect those broad concepts to testable hypotheses for bacterial uptake of B12, siderophores and glycans.Comment: Added many new references, edited throughou

From Bounded Rationality to Behavioral Economics

The paper provides an brief overview of the “state of the art” in the theory of rational decision making since the 1950’s, and focuses specially on the evolutionary justification of rationality. It is claimed that this justification, and more generally the economic methodology inherited from the Chicago school, becomes untenable once taking into account Kauffman’s Nk model, showing that if evolution it is based on trial-and-error search process, it leads generally to sub- optimal stable solutions: the ‘as if’ justification of perfect rationality proves therefore to be a fallacious metaphor. The normative interpretation of decision-making theory is therefore questioned, and the two challenging views against this approach , Simon’s bounded rationality and Allais’ criticism to expected utility theory are discussed. On this ground it is shown that the cognitive characteristics of choice processes are becoming more and more important for explanation of economic behavior and of deviations from rationality. In particular, according to Kahneman’s Nobel Lecture, it is suggested that the distinction between two types of cognitive processes – the effortful process of deliberate reasoning on the one hand, and the automatic process of unconscious intuition on the other – can provide a different map with which to explain a broad class of deviations from pure ‘olympian’ rationality. This view requires re-establishing and revising connections between psychology and economics: an on-going challenge against the normative approach to economic methodology.Bounded Rationality, Behavioral Economics, Evolution, As If