The Fine-Tuning Argument

Our laws of nature and our cosmos appear to be delicately fine-tuned for life to emerge, in a way that seems hard to attribute to chance. In view of this, some have taken the opportunity to revive the scholastic Argument from Design, whereas others have felt the need to explain this apparent fine-tuning of the clockwork of the Universe by proposing the existence of a `Multiverse'. We analyze this issue from a sober perspective. Having reviewed the literature and having added several observations of our own, we conclude that cosmic fine-tuning supports neither Design nor a Multiverse, since both of these fail at an explanatory level as well as in a more quantitative context of Bayesian confirmation theory (although there might be other reasons to believe in these ideas, to be found in religion and in inflation and/or string theory, respectively). In fact, fine-tuning and Design even seem to be at odds with each other, whereas the inference from fine-tuning to a Multiverse only works if the latter is underwritten by an additional metaphysical hypothesis we consider unwarranted. Instead, we suggest that fine-tuning requires no special explanation at all, since it is not the Universe that is fine-tuned for life, but life that has been fine-tuned to the Universe.Comment: 16 pages, written for a general audienc

Safety Engineering with COTS components

Safety-critical systems are becoming more widespread, complex and reliant on software. Increasingly they are engineered through Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) (Commercial Off The Shelf) components to alleviate the spiralling costs and development time, often in the context of complex supply chains. A parallel increased concern for safety has resulted in a variety of safety standards, with a growing consensus that a safety life cycle is needed which is fully integrated with the design and development life cycle, to ensure that safety has appropriate influence on the design decisions as system development progresses. In this article we explore the application of an integrated approach to safety engineering in which assurance drives the engineering process. The paper re- ports on the outcome of a case study on a live industrial project with a view to evaluate: its suitability for application in a real-world safety engineering setting; its benefits and limitations in counteracting some of the difficulties of safety en- gineering with COTS components across supply chains; and, its effectiveness in generating evidence which can contribute directly to the construction of safety cases

A secondary analyses of Bradac et al. s prototype process-monitoring experiment

We report on the secondary analyses of some conjectures and empirical evidence presented in Bradac et al. s prototype process-monitoring experiment, published previously in IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering. We identify 13 conjectures in the original paper, and re-analyse six of these conjectures using the original evidence. Rather than rejecting any of the original conjectures, we identify assumptions underlying those conjectures, identify alternative interpretations of the conjectures, and also propose a number of new conjectures. Bradac et al. s study focused on reducing the project schedule interval. Some of our re-analysis has--considered improving software quality. We note that our analyses were only possible because of the quality and quantity of evidence presented in the original paper. Reflecting on our analyses leads us to speculate about the value of descriptive papers --that seek to present empirical material (together with an explicit statement of goals, assumptions and constraints) separate from the analyses that proceeds from that material. Such descriptive papers could improve the public scrutiny of software engineering research and may respond, in part, to some researchers criticisms concerning the small amount of software engineering research that is actually--evaluated. We also consider opportunities for further research, in particular opportunities for relating individual actions to project outcomes

The natural history of bugs: using formal methods to analyse software related failures in space missions

Space missions force engineers to make complex trade-offs between many different constraints including cost, mass, power, functionality and reliability. These constraints create a continual need to innovate. Many advances rely upon software, for instance to control and monitor the next generation ‘electron cyclotron resonance’ ion-drives for deep space missions.Programmers face numerous challenges. It is extremely difficult to conduct valid ground-based tests for the code used in space missions. Abstract models and simulations of satellites can be misleading. These issues are compounded by the use of ‘band-aid’ software to fix design mistakes and compromises in other aspects of space systems engineering. Programmers must often re-code missions in flight. This introduces considerable risks. It should, therefore, not be a surprise that so many space missions fail to achieve their objectives. The costs of failure are considerable. Small launch vehicles, such as the U.S. Pegasus system, cost around $18 million. Payloads range from$4 million up to $1 billion for security related satellites. These costs do not include consequent business losses. In 2005, Intelsat wrote off$73 million from the failure of a single uninsured satellite. It is clearly important that we learn as much as possible from those failures that do occur. The following pages examine the roles that formal methods might play in the analysis of software failures in space missions

Proceedings ICPW'07: 2nd International Conference on the Pragmatic Web, 22-23 Oct. 2007, Tilburg: NL

Proceedings ICPW'07: 2nd International Conference on the Pragmatic Web, 22-23 Oct. 2007, Tilburg: N

Uses of Economic Rhetoric – Told by Designers, Represented by Economic Press

The design discipline is constantly moving and reshaping itself. As the practices are often new and still evolving, the professionals in the field need to position their own activities to the context in which they are practiced (Valtonen, 2007). In the case of industrial design, the practice is conducted and increasingly discussed in the realm of the economic world. When issues such as global competitiveness or companies’ competitive advantages are discussed, design is often seen as a mean to improve business. This is the case especially where(onko tämä where ok?) competing on merely price or technological advantage becomes increasingly difficult. This paper shows how the designers present industrial design as an economically viable action and how the economic press represents industrial design in the context of economy. Keywords: Economic Rhetoric; Industrial Design; Interviews; Media; Rhetorical Analysis</p