A condition-based maintenance policy for degrading systems with age- and state-dependent operating cost

Most of the maintenance policies in existing publications assume that no cost is incurred as long as the system can undertake missions while little consideration has been devoted to the operating cost during system operation. However, in practice, the operating cost increases while the system ages and degrades even if a system is in a functioning state. This paper proposes a maintenance policy for a degrading system with age- and state-dependent operating cost, which increases with system age and degradation levels. Under such a setting, a replacement model is first developed to investigate the optimal preventive replacement policy. The replacement model is then extended to a repair-replacement model, in which imperfect repair is assumed to restore the system to the operating condition. Particularly, the repair model with controllable and uncontrollable repair levels is considered separately. The paper proves that the optimal maintenance policy is actually a monotone control limit policy, where the optimal control limits decrease monotonically with system age. Finally, a numerical example along with sensitivity analysis is presented to illustrate the optimal maintenance policy. The proposed model implies a more conservative maintenance policy, compared with the traditional model without the age- and state-dependent operating cost

The latent state hazard model, with application to wind turbine reliability

We present a new model for reliability analysis that is able to distinguish the latent internal vulnerability state of the equipment from the vulnerability caused by temporary external sources. Consider a wind farm where each turbine is running under the external effects of temperature, wind speed and direction, etc. The turbine might fail because of the external effects of a spike in temperature. If it does not fail during the temperature spike, it could still fail due to internal degradation, and the spike could cause (or be an indication of) this degradation. The ability to identify the underlying latent state can help better understand the effects of external sources and thus lead to more robust decision-making. We present an experimental study using SCADA sensor measurements from wind turbines in Italy.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS859 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Develop Guidelines for Pavement Preservation Treatments and for Building a Pavement Preservation Program Platform for Alaska

INE/AUTC 12.0

Bayesian Filtering Methods For Dynamic System Monitoring and Control

Real-time system monitoring and control represent two of the most important issues that characterize modern industries in critical areas of civilian and military interest, including the power grid, energy, healthcare, aerospace, and infrastructure. During the past decade, there has been a rapid development of robust dynamic system monitoring and control methods for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis. Among various monitoring and control policies, condition-based maintenance (CBM) has been studied by many researchers due to its ability to enable a large amount of monitoring data for real-time diagnostics and prognostics. A considerable amount of literature has been published on the subject, providing a large volume of dynamic system control methods. Previously published studies are limited by assumptions that can generally be distinguished into three main categories: i) predefined system failure thresholds, ii) simplified latent dynamics, and iii) unrealistic parametric forms that describe the evolution of system dynamics through time. This thesis provides an array of solution approaches that overcome the aforementioned assumptions in a smart and effective way by introducing novel quantitative frameworks for real-time monitoring, control, and decision-making for dynamic systems. The proposed frameworks are categorized into two main phases of a comprehensive framework. The first phase contains two original Bayesian filtering methods for condition monitoring and control of systems with either linear or non-linear degradation dynamics. The former is designed only for systems with linear latent and observable dynamics and utilizes Kalman filtering for state-parameter inference. It considers a failure process that is purely stochastic and is based on logistic regression. This process is directly affected by the latent system dynamics, therefore avoiding the need for a priori failure thresholds. The latter takes into consideration multiple levels of system dynamics that evolve either linearly or non-linearly. A hybrid particle filter is developed for state-parameter inference, while an Extreme Learning Machine artificial neural network is utilized to relate sensor observations to latent system dynamics. Both frameworks are tested and validated on synthetic and real-world time-series datasets. The second phase of this thesis introduces an original method for optimal control and decision-making that employs Bayesian filtering-based deep reinforcement learning with fully stochastic environments. Sets of deep reinforcement learning agents were trained to develop control policies. Bayesian filtering methods from the first phase were utilized to provide environment states that use the estimates from latent system dynamics. This method is used in two different applications for maintenance cost minimization and estimating the remaining useful life of a system under condition monitoring. Results obtained from applying the framework on simulated and real-world time-series data suggest that the proposed Bayesian filtering-based deep reinforcement learning algorithm can be trained even with limited data, which can be useful for real-time control and decision making for many dynamic systems

Linking component importance to optimisation of preventive maintenance policy

In reliability engineering, time on performing preventive maintenance (PM) on a component in a system may affect system availability if system operation needs stopping for PM. To avoid such an availability reduction, one may adopt the following method: if a component fails, PM is carried out on a number of the other components while the failed component is being repaired. This ensures PM does not take system’s operating time. However, this raises a question: Which components should be selected for PM? This paper introduces an importance measure, called Component Maintenance Priority (CMP), which is used to select components for PM. The paper then compares the CMP with other importance measures and studies the properties of the CMP. Numerical examples are given to show the validity of the CMP

Development of a whole life cycle cost model for electrification options on the UK rail system

Projects to deliver Overhead Line Equipment (OLE) electrification on the UK rail infrastructure system presents technical challenges which the rail industry in Britain have not traditionally had to consider. Whole Life Cycle assessment provides decision makers with cost estimates for the installation phase and over the entire service life of the system, including disposal. The OLE projects face a particular problem when analysing the best option for overbridges. Much of the rail infrastructure has not traditionally had to consider overhead clearances and therefore many of the bridges are only a little taller than the rolling stock. In addition to the difficulties in assessing the Life-Cycle costs of assets that have historically been used in very limited scales, the Whole Life Cycle assessment must consider the various engineering options that are available for projects. The three competing options (bridge rebuild, track lowering, reduced clearance) are all going to have very different capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX) costs. This work presents a model created to predict these costs over the anticipated assessment period. The developed model predicts capital expenditures, maintenance and service disruption costs and links them to the three major assets options involved in OLE underbridges

Switching- and hedging- point policy for preventive maintenance with degrading machines: application to a two-machine line

Maintenance and production are frequently managed as separate activities although they do interact. Disruptive events such as machine failures may find the company unready to repair the machine immediately leading to time waste. Preventive Maintenance may be carried out and maintenance time reduced to the effective task duration, in order to prevent time waste. Companies and researchers have been focusing on policies able to mitigate the impact of Preventive Maintenance on system availability, by exploiting the knowledge about degradation profiles in machines and the joint information from the machine state and the buffer level. In this work, the mathematical proof of the optimal threshold-based control policy for Preventive Maintenance with inventory cost, maintenance cost, backlog cost is provided. The control policy is defined in terms of buffer thresholds and dependency of the thresholds on the degradation condition. The optimal control policy is proved to include a combination of switching points and hedging points, where the first ones activate the Preventive Maintenance for a given condition and the latter ones control the production rate in order to minimize the surplus. An extensive experimental campaign analyzes the impact of system parameters such as the Maintenance duration on the cost function. The results show that there exists cases in which the optimal policy is dominated by the effect of the hedging points or the switching points, alternatively. Therefore, the proposed method is used to provide suggestions to the management for operative decisions, in order to choose the policy fitting best the system

Age Replacement and Service Rate Control of Stochastically Degrading Queues

This thesis considers the problem of optimally selecting a periodic replacement time for a multiserver queueing system in which each server is subject to degradation as a function of the mean service rate and a stochastic and dynamic environment. Also considered is the problem of optimal service rate selection for such a system. In both cases, the performance metric is the long-run average cost rate. Analytical expressions are obtained, in terms of Laplace transforms, for the nonlinear objective functions, necessitating the use of numerical Laplace transform inversion to evaluate candidate solutions in conjunction with standard numerical algorithms. Due to the convexity of the objective function, the optimal replacement time is computed using a hybrid bisection-secant method which yields globally optimal solutions. The optimal service rates are obtained via gradient search methods but are only guaranteed to provide locally optimal solutions. The analytical results are implemented on three notional examples that demonstrate the benefits of dynamically adjusting service rates under the described maintenance policy

Optimal Periodic Inspection of a Stochastically Degrading System

This thesis develops and analyzes a procedure to determine the optimal inspection interval that maximizes the limiting average availability of a stochastically degrading component operating in a randomly evolving environment. The component is inspected periodically, and if the total observed cumulative degradation exceeds a fixed threshold value, the component is instantly replaced with a new, statistically identical component. Degradation is due to a combination of continuous wear caused by the component\u27s random operating environment, as well as damage due to randomly occurring shocks of random magnitude. In order to compute an optimal inspection interval and corresponding limiting average availability, a nonlinear program is formulated and solved using a direct search algorithm in conjunction with numerical Laplace transform inversion. Techniques are developed to significantly decrease the time required to compute the approximate optimal solutions. The mathematical programming formulation and solution techniques are illustrated through a series of increasingly complex example problems