Breakthroughs in Shared Measurement and Social Impact

A surprising new breakthrough is emerging in the social sector: A handful of innovative organizations have developed web-based systems for reporting the performance, measuring the outcomes, and coordinating the efforts of hundreds or even thousands of social enterprises within a field. These nascent efforts carry implications well beyond performance measurement, foreshadowing the possibility of profound changes in the vision and effectiveness of the entire nonprofit sector. This paper, based on six months of interviews and research by FSG Social Impact Advisors, examines twenty efforts to develop shared approaches to performance, outcome, or impact measurement across multiple organizations. The accompanying appendices include a short description of each system and four more in-depth case studies

Development and Validation of a Rule-based Time Series Complexity Scoring Technique to Support Design of Adaptive Forecasting DSS

Evidence from forecasting research gives reason to believe that understanding time series complexity can enable design of adaptive forecasting decision support systems (FDSSs) to positively support forecasting behaviors and accuracy of outcomes. Yet, such FDSS design capabilities have not been formally explored because there exists no systematic approach to identifying series complexity. This study describes the development and validation of a rule-based complexity scoring technique (CST) that generates a complexity score for time series using 12 rules that rely on 14 features of series. The rule-based schema was developed on 74 series and validated on 52 holdback series using well-accepted forecasting methods as benchmarks. A supporting experimental validation was conducted with 14 participants who generated 336 structured judgmental forecasts for sets of series classified as simple or complex by the CST. Benchmark comparisons validated the CST by confirming, as hypothesized, that forecasting accuracy was lower for series scored by the technique as complex when compared to the accuracy of those scored as simple. The study concludes with a comprehensive framework for design of FDSS that can integrate the CST to adaptively support forecasters under varied conditions of series complexity. The framework is founded on the concepts of restrictiveness and guidance and offers specific recommendations on how these elements can be built in FDSS to support complexity

Dual Averaging Method for Online Graph-structured Sparsity

Online learning algorithms update models via one sample per iteration, thus efficient to process large-scale datasets and useful to detect malicious events for social benefits, such as disease outbreak and traffic congestion on the fly. However, existing algorithms for graph-structured models focused on the offline setting and the least square loss, incapable for online setting, while methods designed for online setting cannot be directly applied to the problem of complex (usually non-convex) graph-structured sparsity model. To address these limitations, in this paper we propose a new algorithm for graph-structured sparsity constraint problems under online setting, which we call \textsc{GraphDA}. The key part in \textsc{GraphDA} is to project both averaging gradient (in dual space) and primal variables (in primal space) onto lower dimensional subspaces, thus capturing the graph-structured sparsity effectively. Furthermore, the objective functions assumed here are generally convex so as to handle different losses for online learning settings. To the best of our knowledge, \textsc{GraphDA} is the first online learning algorithm for graph-structure constrained optimization problems. To validate our method, we conduct extensive experiments on both benchmark graph and real-world graph datasets. Our experiment results show that, compared to other baseline methods, \textsc{GraphDA} not only improves classification performance, but also successfully captures graph-structured features more effectively, hence stronger interpretability.Comment: 11 pages, 14 figure

Interpolation of Sparse Graph Signals by Sequential Adaptive Thresholds

This paper considers the problem of interpolating signals defined on graphs. A major presumption considered by many previous approaches to this problem has been lowpass/ band-limitedness of the underlying graph signal. However, inspired by the findings on sparse signal reconstruction, we consider the graph signal to be rather sparse/compressible in the Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) domain and propose the Iterative Method with Adaptive Thresholding for Graph Interpolation (IMATGI) algorithm for sparsity promoting interpolation of the underlying graph signal.We analytically prove convergence of the proposed algorithm. We also demonstrate efficient performance of the proposed IMATGI algorithm in reconstructing randomly generated sparse graph signals. Finally, we consider the widely desirable application of recommendation systems and show by simulations that IMATGI outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on the benchmark datasets in this application.Comment: 12th International Conference on Sampling Theory and Applications (SAMPTA 2017

Efficient Benchmarking of Algorithm Configuration Procedures via Model-Based Surrogates

The optimization of algorithm (hyper-)parameters is crucial for achieving peak performance across a wide range of domains, ranging from deep neural networks to solvers for hard combinatorial problems. The resulting algorithm configuration (AC) problem has attracted much attention from the machine learning community. However, the proper evaluation of new AC procedures is hindered by two key hurdles. First, AC benchmarks are hard to set up. Second and even more significantly, they are computationally expensive: a single run of an AC procedure involves many costly runs of the target algorithm whose performance is to be optimized in a given AC benchmark scenario. One common workaround is to optimize cheap-to-evaluate artificial benchmark functions (e.g., Branin) instead of actual algorithms; however, these have different properties than realistic AC problems. Here, we propose an alternative benchmarking approach that is similarly cheap to evaluate but much closer to the original AC problem: replacing expensive benchmarks by surrogate benchmarks constructed from AC benchmarks. These surrogate benchmarks approximate the response surface corresponding to true target algorithm performance using a regression model, and the original and surrogate benchmark share the same (hyper-)parameter space. In our experiments, we construct and evaluate surrogate benchmarks for hyperparameter optimization as well as for AC problems that involve performance optimization of solvers for hard combinatorial problems, drawing training data from the runs of existing AC procedures. We show that our surrogate benchmarks capture overall important characteristics of the AC scenarios, such as high- and low-performing regions, from which they were derived, while being much easier to use and orders of magnitude cheaper to evaluate