Пространственное моделирование человеческого потенциала в Республике Башкортостан

calculated by the authors to use a simplified methodology that takes into account the indicators of average life expectancy at birth, the weighted average monthly wages and the average monthly pension, as well as the average duration of study and literacy of the population, for each of 54 municipalities and 8 urban districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period of 2007 and 2013. A comprehensive study of spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of HDI in the republic was conducted in accordance with the five-step methodology proposed by the authors. At the first stage of the study, a weighted spatial matrix of inverse distances between the administrative centers of the municipalities was calculated. This matrix defined the spatial lag structure. At the second stage, which consisted in calculating the global and local indexes of spatial auto-correlation (Moran’s and Giris), the hypothesis about the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the HDI distribution was confirmed. Under the third stage, Moran’s scatterplots were used to visualize the spatial mutual influence of the HDI for specific municipalities for 2007 and 2013. The fourth stage consisted in spatial model estimation. Two specifications were considered: spatial auto-regression (SAR) and spatial error (SEM), both permitting to identify the mutual influence in the spatial distribution of the HDI in municipalities and urban districts. Coefficients of the models were estimated by using maximum likelihood approach. The final part of the study was devoted to the interpretation of the results of spatialregression modeling. R-Studio was used as a modelling tool.Results. It was shown that the distribution of the HDI in municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan is characterized by sustainable positive spatial auto-correlation. Moreover, we note an increase in dynamics of positive spatial correlation in the distribution of the HDI, which could be explained by the increasing role of urbanization and concentration of human resources in relatively large cities. There is even “a competitive struggle” going on in a number of municipalities for resources that contribute to raising the HDI. A number of municipalities form, however, a cluster of territories with a low level of human development. These areas are mainly located in the Northeast of the Republic. The estimation of spatial regression models allowed us overall to quantify the spatial auto-correlation dependencies in the distribution of human capital.Conclusion. The obtained results of spatial dependencies in the distribution of human capital can be used both in the development of strategies for the long-term socio-economic development of municipalities and serve as a basis for strategic planning of the development of the region.Цель исследования. Целью исследования является выявление пространственных автокорреляционных зависимостей в распределении человеческого капитала в Республике Башкортостан. Материалы и методы. В качестве показателя, измеряющего человеческий капитал, рассматривается индекс развития человеческого потенциала, рассчитанный для каждого из 54 муниципальных образований и 8 городских округов Республики Башкортостан в динамике за 2007 и 2013 гг. в соответствии с упрощенной методикой, учитывающей показатели средней ожидаемой продолжительности жизни при рождении, средневзвешенного среднемесячной заработной платы и среднемесячной пенсии, средней продолжительности обучения и грамотности населения по данным переписей населения. Комплексное исследование пространственных автокорреляционных зависимостей в распределении индекса развития человеческого потенциала (ИРЧП) в республике было проведено в соответствии с предложенной авторами пятиэтапной методики. На первом этапе исследования была сформирована весовая пространственная матрица обратных расстояний между административными центрами муниципалитетов, определяющая пространственный лаг. На втором этапе, заключающемся в расчете глобальных и локальных индексов пространственной автокорреляции (Морана и Гири), была подтверждена гипотеза о наличии пространственных зависимостей в распределении ИРЧП. Третий этап позволил наглядно проанализировать пространственное взаимное влияние ИРЧП для конкретных муниципалитетов на основе диаграмм рассеяния, построенных для 2007 и 2013 годов в отдельности. Четвертый этап, состоящий в построении и оценке методом максимального правдоподобия моделей пространственной авторегрессии (SAR) и пространственной ошибки (SEM), дал возможность количественно оценить выявленное взаимное влияние в пространственном распределении ИРЧП в муниципальных образованиях и городских округах. Заключительная часть исследования была посвящена интерпретации полученных результатов пространственно-регрессионного моделирования. В качестве программного средства моделирования использовался R Studio.Результаты. В результате исследования было показано, что для распределения индекса развития человеческого капитала в муниципалитетах Республики Башкортостан характерна устойчивая положительная пространственная автокорреляция. При этом в динамике наблюдается усиление пространственных зависимостей в распределении ИРЧП в Республике Башкортостан, что объясняется возрастающей ролью урбанизации и стягиванием человеческих ресурсов в относительно крупные города. В ряде муниципалитетов наблюдается конкурентная борьба за ресурсы, способствующие повышению ИРЧП. Ряд муниципалитетов образуют кластер территорий с низким уровнем развития человеческого потенциала. В основном это районы Северо-Востока республики. Полученные модели пространственной регрессии позволили количественно оценить пространственные автокорреляционных зависимости в распределении человеческого капитала.Заключение. Полученные результаты пространственных зависимостей в распределении человеческого потенциала могут быть использованы как при разработке стратегий долгосрочного социально-экономического развития муниципалитетов, так и служить основой для стратегического планирования развития региона в целом

Life Skills Education for Children with Special Needs In Order to Facilitate Vocational Skills

Children with special needs generally consist of children who experience delays and disruptions in their development so that require special handling to improve the ability of children with special needs. After conducting a survey at several extraordinary schools (SLB) in Makassar, it was found that the conventional delivery of materials from teachers resulted in an uncomfortable situation so that the students 'interest to learn a particular subject was very low, therefore a learning method was needed that could attract students' interest in following the lesson. Students hope to gain more knowledge and experience as study results, while teachers, on the other hand, expect that practical learning process can bring achievement in term of better cognitive, psychomotor, affective changes, and improvement of student life skill. After producing a Multimedia Based Learning model, this research carried out trial test on the developed product to several students of SLB (Sekolah Luar Biasa) in Makassar. It was found that the use of this Multimedia Based Learning Model by SLB students can develop their life skills such as personal skills, thinking skills, social skills, and vocational skills

Critical Thinking Skills Profile of High School Students In Learning Science-Physics

This study aims to describe Critical Thinking Skills high school students in the city of Makassar. To achieve this goal, the researchers conducted an analysis of student test results of 200 people scattered in six schools in the city of Makassar. The results of the quantitative descriptive analysis of the data found that the average value of students doing the interpretation, analysis, and inference in a row by 1.53, 1.15, and 1.52. This value is still very low when compared with the maximum value that may be obtained by students, that is equal to 10.00. This shows that the critical thinking skills of high school students are still very low. One fact Competency Standards science subjects-Physics is demonstrating the ability to think logically, critically, and creatively with the guidance of teachers and demonstrate the ability to solve simple problems in daily life. In fact, according to Michael Scriven stated that the main task of education is to train students and or students to think critically because of the demands of work in the global economy, the survival of a democratic and personal decisions and decisions in an increasingly complex society needs people who can think well and make judgments good. Therefore, the need for teachers in the learning device scenario such as: driving question or problem, authentic Investigation: Science Processes

Annual Research Report, 2009-2010

Annual report of collaborative research projects of Old Dominion University faculty and students in partnership with business, industry and governmenthttps://digitalcommons.odu.edu/or_researchreports/1001/thumbnail.jp

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen