Informational Substitutes

We propose definitions of substitutes and complements for pieces of information ("signals") in the context of a decision or optimization problem, with game-theoretic and algorithmic applications. In a game-theoretic context, substitutes capture diminishing marginal value of information to a rational decision maker. We use the definitions to address the question of how and when information is aggregated in prediction markets. Substitutes characterize "best-possible" equilibria with immediate information aggregation, while complements characterize "worst-possible", delayed aggregation. Game-theoretic applications also include settings such as crowdsourcing contests and Q\&A forums. In an algorithmic context, where substitutes capture diminishing marginal improvement of information to an optimization problem, substitutes imply efficient approximation algorithms for a very general class of (adaptive) information acquisition problems. In tandem with these broad applications, we examine the structure and design of informational substitutes and complements. They have equivalent, intuitive definitions from disparate perspectives: submodularity, geometry, and information theory. We also consider the design of scoring rules or optimization problems so as to encourage substitutability or complementarity, with positive and negative results. Taken as a whole, the results give some evidence that, in parallel with substitutable items, informational substitutes play a natural conceptual and formal role in game theory and algorithms.Comment: Full version of FOCS 2016 paper. Single-column, 61 pages (48 main text, 13 references and appendix

Experts and Decision Making: First Steps Towards a Unifying Theory of Decision Making in Novices, Intermediates and Experts

Expertise research shows quite ambiguous results on the abilities of experts in judgment and decision making (JDM) classic models cannot account for. This problem becomes even more accentuated if different levels of expertise are considered. We argue that parallel constraint satisfaction models (PCS) might be a useful base to understand the processes underlying expert JDM and the hitherto existing, differentiated results from expertise research. It is outlined how expertise might influence model parameters and mental representations according to PCS. It is discussed how this differential impact of expertise on model parameters relates to empirical results showing quite different courses in the development of expertise; allowing, for example, to predict under which conditions intermediates might outperform experts. Methodological requirements for testing the proposed unifying theory under complex real-world conditions are discussed.Judgment and Decision Making, Expertise, Intermediate Effects, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Mental Representation

Single- and Multiple-Shell Uniform Sampling Schemes for Diffusion MRI Using Spherical Codes

In diffusion MRI (dMRI), a good sampling scheme is important for efficient acquisition and robust reconstruction. Diffusion weighted signal is normally acquired on single or multiple shells in q-space. Signal samples are typically distributed uniformly on different shells to make them invariant to the orientation of structures within tissue, or the laboratory coordinate frame. The Electrostatic Energy Minimization (EEM) method, originally proposed for single shell sampling scheme in dMRI, was recently generalized to multi-shell schemes, called Generalized EEM (GEEM). GEEM has been successfully used in the Human Connectome Project (HCP). However, EEM does not directly address the goal of optimal sampling, i.e., achieving large angular separation between sampling points. In this paper, we propose a more natural formulation, called Spherical Code (SC), to directly maximize the minimal angle between different samples in single or multiple shells. We consider not only continuous problems to design single or multiple shell sampling schemes, but also discrete problems to uniformly extract sub-sampled schemes from an existing single or multiple shell scheme, and to order samples in an existing scheme. We propose five algorithms to solve the above problems, including an incremental SC (ISC), a sophisticated greedy algorithm called Iterative Maximum Overlap Construction (IMOC), an 1-Opt greedy method, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) method, and a Constrained Non-Linear Optimization (CNLO) method. To our knowledge, this is the first work to use the SC formulation for single or multiple shell sampling schemes in dMRI. Experimental results indicate that SC methods obtain larger angular separation and better rotational invariance than the state-of-the-art EEM and GEEM. The related codes and a tutorial have been released in DMRITool.Comment: Accepted by IEEE transactions on Medical Imaging. Codes have been released in dmritool https://diffusionmritool.github.io/tutorial_qspacesampling.htm

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Perfusion Cardiovascular MRI

Myocardial perfusion MRI provides valuable insight into how coronary artery and microvascular diseases affect myocardial tissue. Stenosis in a coronary vessel leads to reduced maximum blood flow (MBF), but collaterals may secure the blood supply of the myocardium but with altered tracer kinetics. To date, quantitative analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI has only been performed on a local level, largely ignoring the contextual information inherent in different myocardial segments. This paper proposes to quantify the spatial dependencies between the local kinetics via a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM). In the proposed framework, all local systems are modelled simultaneously along with their dependencies, thus allowing more robust context-driven estimation of local kinetics. Detailed validation on both simulated and patient data is provided

Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making

We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers for modeling processes of decision making and discuss some empirical evidence. Specifically, we posit that the integration of information and the application of a selection rule are governed by the automatic system. The deliberate system is assumed to be responsible for information search, inferences and the modification of the network that the automatic processes act on. Third, we critically evaluate the multiple-strategy approach to decision making. We introduce the basic assumption of an integrative approach stating that individuals apply an all-purpose rule for decisions but use different strategies for information search. Fourth, we develop a connectionist framework that explains the interaction between automatic and deliberate processes and is able to account for choices both at the option and at the strategy level.System 1, Intuition, Reasoning, Control, Routines, Connectionist Model, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction

A foundation for machine learning in design

This paper presents a formalism for considering the issues of learning in design. A foundation for machine learning in design (MLinD) is defined so as to provide answers to basic questions on learning in design, such as, "What types of knowledge can be learnt?", "How does learning occur?", and "When does learning occur?". Five main elements of MLinD are presented as the input knowledge, knowledge transformers, output knowledge, goals/reasons for learning, and learning triggers. Using this foundation, published systems in MLinD were reviewed. The systematic review presents a basis for validating the presented foundation. The paper concludes that there is considerable work to be carried out in order to fully formalize the foundation of MLinD

The optimality of attaching unlinked labels to unlinked meanings

Vocabulary learning by children can be characterized by many biases. When encountering a new word, children as well as adults, are biased towards assuming that it means something totally different from the words that they already know. To the best of our knowledge, the 1st mathematical proof of the optimality of this bias is presented here. First, it is shown that this bias is a particular case of the maximization of mutual information between words and meanings. Second, the optimality is proven within a more general information theoretic framework where mutual information maximization competes with other information theoretic principles. The bias is a prediction from modern information theory. The relationship between information theoretic principles and the principles of contrast and mutual exclusivity is also shown.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A generalized framework unifying image registration and respiratory motion models and incorporating image reconstruction, for partial image data or full images

Surrogate-driven respiratory motion models relate the motion of the internal anatomy to easily acquired respiratory surrogate signals, such as the motion of the skin surface. They are usually built by first using image registration to determine the motion from a number of dynamic images, and then fitting a correspondence model relating the motion to the surrogate signals. In this paper we present a generalized framework that unifies the image registration and correspondence model fitting into a single optimization. This allows the use of 'partial' imaging data, such as individual slices, projections, or k-space data, where it would not be possible to determine the motion from an individual frame of data. Motion compensated image reconstruction can also be incorporated using an iterative approach, so that both the motion and a motion-free image can be estimated from the partial image data. The framework has been applied to real 4DCT, Cine CT, multi-slice CT, and multi-slice MR data, as well as simulated datasets from a computer phantom. This includes the use of a super-resolution reconstruction method for the multi-slice MR data. Good results were obtained for all datasets, including quantitative results for the 4DCT and phantom datasets where the ground truth motion was known or could be estimated