A Hybrid of Stochastic Programming Approaches with Economic and Operational Risk Management for Petroleum Refinery Planning under Uncertainty

In view of the current situation of fluctuating high crude oil prices, it is now more important than ever for petroleum refineries to operate at an optimal level in the present dynamic global economy. Acknowledging the shortcomings of deterministic models, this work proposes a hybrid of stochastic programming formulations for an optimal midterm refinery planning that addresses three factors of uncertainties, namely price of crude oil and saleable products, product demand, and production yields. An explicit stochastic programming technique is utilized by employing compensating slack variables to account for violations of constraints in order to increase model tractability. Four approaches are considered to ensure both solution and model robustness: (1) the Markowitz’s mean–variance (MV) model to handle randomness in the objective coefficients of prices by minimizing variance of the expected value of the random coefficients; (2) the two-stage stochastic programming with fixed recourse approach via scenario analysis to model randomness in the right-hand side and left-hand side coefficients by minimizing the expected recourse penalty costs due to constraints’ violations; (3) incorporation of the MV model within the framework developed in Approach 2 to minimize both the expectation and variance of the recourse costs; and (4) reformulation of the model in Approach 3 by adopting mean-absolute deviation (MAD) as the risk metric imposed by the recourse costs for a novel application to the petroleum refining industry. A representative numerical example is illustrated with the resulting outcome of higher net profits and increased robustness in solutions proposed by the stochastic models

Stochastic multi-period multi-product multi-objective Aggregate Production Planning model in multi-echelon supply chain

In this paper a multi-period multi-product multi-objective aggregate production planning (APP) model is proposed for an uncertain multi-echelon supply chain considering financial risk, customer satisfaction, and human resource training. Three conflictive objective functions and several sets of real constraints are considered concurrently in the proposed APP model. Some parameters of the proposed model are assumed to be uncertain and handled through a two-stage stochastic programming (TSSP) approach. The proposed TSSP is solved using three multi-objective solution procedures, i.e., the goal attainment technique, the modified ε-constraint method, and STEM method. The whole procedure is applied in an automotive resin and oil supply chain as a real case study wherein the efficacy and applicability of the proposed approaches are illustrated in comparison with existing experimental production planning method

A Stochastic Equilibrium Model for the North American Natural Gas Market

This dissertation is an endeavor in the field of energy modeling for the North American natural gas market using a mixed complementarity formulation combined with the stochastic programming. The genesis of the stochastic equilibrium model presented in this dissertation is the deterministic market equilibrium model developed in [Gabriel, Kiet and Zhuang, 2005]. Based on some improvements that we made to this model including proving new existence and uniqueness results, we present a multistage stochastic equilibrium model with uncertain demand for the deregulated North American natural gas market using the recourse method of the stochastic programming. The market participants considered by the model are pipeline operators, producers, storage operators, peak gas operators, marketers and consumers. Pipeline operators are described with regulated tariffs but also involve "congestion pricing" as a mechanism to allocate scarce pipeline capacity. Marketers are modeled as Nash-Cournot players in sales to the residential and commercial sectors but price-takers in all other aspects. Consumers are represented by demand functions in the marketers' problem. Producers, storage operators and peak gas operators are price-takers consistent with perfect competition. Also, two types of the natural gas markets are included: the long-term and spot markets. Market participants make both high-level planning decisions (first-stage decisions) in the long-term market and daily operational decisions (recourse decisions) in the spot market subject to their engineering, resource and political constraints as well as market constraints on both the demand and the supply side, so as to simultaneously maximize their expected profits given others' decisions. The model is shown to be an instance of a mixed complementarity problem (MiCP) under minor conditions. The MiCP formulation is derived from applying the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions of the optimization problems faced by the market participants. Some theoretical results regarding the market prices in both markets are shown. We also illustrate the model on a representative, sample network of two production nodes, two consumption nodes with discretely distributed end-user demand and three seasons using four cases

Approximation in stochastic integer programming

Approximation algorithms are the prevalent solution methods in the field of stochastic programming. Problems in this field are very hard to solve. Indeed, most of the research in this field has concentrated on designing solution methods that approximate the optimal solutions. However, efficiency in the complexity theoretical sense is usually not taken into account. Quality statements mostly remain restricted to convergence to an optimal solution without accompanying implications on the running time of the algorithms for attaining more and more accurate solutions. However, over the last twenty years also some studies on performance analysis of approximation algorithms for stochastic programming have appeared. In this direction we find both probabilistic analysis and worst-case analysis. There have been studies on performance ratios and on absolute divergence from optimality. Only recently the complexity of stochastic programming problems has been addressed, indeed confirming that these problems are harder than most combinatorial optimization problems.

A decomposition approach to a stochastic model for supply-and-return network design

This paper presents a generic stochastic model for the design of networks comprising both supply and return channels, organized in a closed loop system. Such situations are typical for manufacturing/re-manufacturing type of systems in reverse logistics. The model accounts for a number of alternative scenarios, which may be constructed based on critical levels of design parameters such as demand or returns. We propose a decomposition approach for this model based on the branch and cut procedure known as the integer L-shaped method. Computational results show a consistent performance efficiency of the method for the addressed location problem. The stochastic solutions obtained in a numerical setting generate a significant improvement in terms of average performance over the individual scenario solutions. A solution methodology as presented here can contribute to overcoming notorious challenges of stochastic network design models, such as increased problem sizes and computational difficulty.Decomposition;Location;Remanufacturing;Integer L-shaped;Uncertainty

Stochastic utility-efficient programming of organic dairy farms

Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterise the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker’s objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with recourse) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgements were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies in organic dairy systems in Norway

A two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model for determining robust planting plans in horticulture

A two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model for the problem of determining optimal planting plans for a vegetable crop is presented in this paper. Uncertainty caused by factors such as weather on yields is a major influence on many systems arising in horticulture. Traditional linear programming models are generally unsatisfactory in dealing with the uncertainty and produce solutions that are considered to involve an unacceptable level of risk. The first stage of the model relates to finding a planting plan which is common to all scenarios and the second stage is concerned with deriving a harvesting schedule for each scenario. Solutions are obtained for a range of risk aversion factors that not only result in greater expected profit compared to the corresponding deterministic model, but also are more robust