Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.Fulbright Canada, Norwich Universit

An Optimization Approach to Balancing Risk and Cost in Combatant Command Capability Advocacy

Unified Combatant Commands (UCCs) have broad continuing missions around the globe where they are tasked to provide functional expertise and defense of geographical areas.  Accomplishing these missions requires a robust portfolio of military capabilities (e.g., aircraft, spacecraft, command and control systems, radar systems).  UCCs routinely perform analyses to identify gaps between capabilities required to accomplish their mission and those currently at their disposal.  Each year they submit a prioritized list of required capabilities, including new systems and greater capacity with existing systems, to the Joint Staff in the costly and time-consuming Integrated Priority List (IPL) process.  This process relies on operational art and subject matter expertise, and sometimes fails to identify acquisition opportunities that achieve an optimal balance between risk and cost.  Because this IPL process affects all of the DOD’s personnel, material, systems and missions, it is arguably the most significant analytic challenge faced by the United States military.  This article presents an integer linear programming model that computes an optimal balance between operational risk and the cost of acquiring new capabilities, and allows decision makers to identify the real-world impact of their budgetary decisions.  We apply this model to the mission of providing aerospace defense of the United States and illustrate through sensitivity analysis the meaningful insights that can be gained by studying the relationship between the risk of not achieving 100 percent radar coverage and the opportunity cost of advocating for new capabilities

Issues in Modeling Military Space

Fighter Pilots students undertake an intense 120-day training program. New classes of students enter the training program at regular interval. Students endured rigorous academic, simulator, and aircraft training throughout the program. Squadron schedulers ensure the multiple classes and students are scheduled for the activities. Simulator and aircraft training are scheduled individual for each student. Academic training are taught to the class. Aircraft utilization must also be considered. Aircraft Sortie training are also constrained by daylight hours. Additionally, students are limited to a maximum of three training events in a given day. Squadron schedulers must balance these requirements to ensure students meet their training requirements and successfully graduate. The dynamic training environment requires advanced robust schedules with flexibility to accommodate changes. A Visual Interactive Modeling approach is used to generate schedules. Current schedules are being generated manually with an Excel spreadsheet. Taking advantage of Excel\u27s Visual Basic Programming language, the Excel tool is modified in several ways. Scheduling Dispatch rules are implemented to automatically generate feasible schedules. Graphical User Interfaces are used to create a user-friendly environment. Schedulers guide the schedule building process to produce a robust schedule. An attrition environment is created to simulate attrition probabilities of aircraft sortie training due to operations, maintenance, weather, and other cancellations. Analysis of dispatch rules are analyzed

Quantifying Resiliency Risk Metrics through Facility Dispersion

During the last century, airbases were attacked at least 26 times in an effort to destroy the enemy at its base. Attacks on military airbases impose prohibitive losses to critical infrastructure, which in turn impacts the maintenance of air power projection. The primary enemy threat facing critical infrastructure today is the use of ballistic and land-attack cruise missiles to disrupt an airbase’s ability to launch and recover aircraft. Over the last decade, ballistic and cruise missile technology has grown to allow the world’s most powerful countries to achieve a nascent threat to forward operating bases used in theater security campaigns worldwide. Planners can reduce the impact of ballistic and cruise missile attacks on aircraft projection platforms by incorporating a number of resiliency measures, including dispersal of critical infrastructure assets, such as aircraft fuel containment and conveyance equipment. The integration of resiliency measures increases construction costs; therefore, planners need to identify an optimum balance between maximizing airbase resiliency and minimizing site costs. This research presents an airbase resiliency assessment capable of quantifying facility dispersal and risk tolerance levels in an environment threatened by missile attack. Model performance was evaluated using a case study from Osan AB, Republic of Korea. The model’s distinctive capabilities are expected to support planners in the critical task of analyzing and selecting the design strategy that maximizes airbase resiliency against the threat of ballistic and cruise missile attack

Heterogeneous Air Defense Battery Location: A Game Theoretic Approach

The Unites States and its allies confront a persistent and evolving threat from missile attacks as nations around the world continue to invest and advance their current capabilities. Within the air defense context of a missile-and-interceptor engagement, a challenge for the defender is that surface to air interceptor missile batteries often must be located to protect high-value targets dispersed over a vast area, subject to an attacker observing the disposition of batteries prior to developing and implementing an attack plan. To model this scenario, we formulate a two-player, three-stage, perfect information, sequential move, zero-sum game that accounts for, respectively, a defender\u27s location of batteries, an attacker\u27s launch of missiles against targets, and a defender\u27s assignment of interceptors to incoming missiles. The resulting trilevel math programming formulation cannot be solved via direct optimization and it is not suitable to solve via full enumeration for realistically-sized instances. We instead utilize the game tree search technique Double Oracle, within which we embed alternative heuristics to solve an important subproblem for the attacker. We test and compare these solution methods to solve a designed set of 26 instances of parametric variation, from which we derive insights regarding the nature of the underlying problem. Whereas full enumeration required up to 8.6 hours to solve the largest instance considered, our superlative implementation of Double Oracle terminates in a maximum of 3.39 seconds over the set of instances, with an average termination time of less than one second. Double Oracle also properly identifies the optimal SPNE strategies in 75% of our test instances and, regarding those instances for which Double Oracle failed, we note that the relative deviation is less than 2.5% from optimal, on average, yielding promise as a solution method to solve realistically-sized instances

Computational Fluid Dynamic Optimization and Design for the Airborne Laser System

The Airborne Laser (ABL) was designed to destroy any ballistic missile shortly after launch that could be a threat to the United States and its allies. The ABL uses several lasers to accomplish the destruction of the ballistic missile, most notably the high powered Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser (COIL). The COIL is a complex device that could be improved upon in several areas that will result in overall weight reduction, refinement of beam quality, and increased magazine capacity. This dissertation presents novel design and optimization techniques coupled with fluid dynamics to improve the performance of the COIL system. The focus was on two components of the COIL system: the iodine mixing nozzle and the pressure recovery system. Improvements to the iodine mixing nozzle were made in terms of mixing efficiency, gain uniformity, and flow uniformity. These improvements result in a power increase per module, which in turn reduces the overall number of modules required to shoot down a missile. The use of fewer modules significantly reduces the weight of the entire system. Additionally, investigations into the pressure recovery system led to further reduction in weight. New designs increased the mixing of the flows, which improved the pressure recovery and entrainment ratios. Focusing on the ABL application, the required pressure recovery needed for operation could be achieved with lower flow rates, and thus, less fluid is needed onboard

Advancing the Application of Design of Experiments (DOE) to Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) Data

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy uses simulation-based campaign analysis to help measure risk for investment options for how best to equip, organize, supply, maintain, train, and employ our naval forces. The Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) is a stochastic simulation model used to support campaign analysis by the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force. Building, testing, running, and analyzing campaign scenarios in STORM can be a complex, time-consuming process. The goal of this research is to apply Design Of Experiment (DOE) methods in the selection and creation of Design Points (DPs) to minimize the number of modeling runs required for meaningful comparisons. Another objective is to understand how best DOE methods can complement traditional baseline and excursion modeling. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) a final brief and/or technical report, in addition to student theses (if applicable); (2) all findings, methods, and data used in the study; and (3) appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

U.S Naval Strategy in the 1990\u27s

The decade of the 1990s represents a distinctive period in American naval strategic thinking. Bounded on one side by the end of the Cold War in 1989-91 and on the other by the beginning of the era of the global war on terrorism after 11 September 2001, these were years in which the U.S. Navy of the 1990s found itself faced with a dramatically altered strategic situation. For the first time in at least four decades, the U.S. Navy had neither a peer nor a superior naval adversary; further, no credible naval adversary could be discerned in the foreseeable future.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/usnwc-newport-papers/1026/thumbnail.jp