MODELLING EXPECTATIONS WITH GENEFER- AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH

Economic modelling of financial markets means to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be the dominant driving forces. Therefore it is necessary to focus on how agents form their expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. AgentsÆ bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule-Bases. E. g. if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to put their relationship in words his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: "IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate is larger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD". æLowÆ and ælargerÆ are fuzzy terms which give a gradual linguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExplorER) has been developed for designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule-Base Generating and Rule-Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule-Base.

A knowledge engineering approach to the recognition of genomic coding regions

ได้ทุนอุดหนุนการวิจัยจากมหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีสุรนารี ปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ.2556-255

Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development

The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art

Adaptive Non-singleton Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems: A Way Forward for Handling Numerical Uncertainties in Real World Applications

Real world environments are characterized by high levels of linguistic and numerical uncertainties. A Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) is recognized as an adequate methodology to handle the uncertainties and imprecision available in real world environments and applications. Since the invention of fuzzy logic, it has been applied with great success to numerous real world applications such as washing machines, food processors, battery chargers, electrical vehicles, and several other domestic and industrial appliances. The first generation of FLSs were type-1 FLSs in which type-1 fuzzy sets were employed. Later, it was found that using type-2 FLSs can enable the handling of higher levels of uncertainties. Recent works have shown that interval type-2 FLSs can outperform type-1 FLSs in the applications which encompass high uncertainty levels. However, the majority of interval type-2 FLSs handle the linguistic and input numerical uncertainties using singleton interval type-2 FLSs that mix the numerical and linguistic uncertainties to be handled only by the linguistic labels type-2 fuzzy sets. This ignores the fact that if input numerical uncertainties were present, they should affect the incoming inputs to the FLS. Even in the papers that employed non-singleton type-2 FLSs, the input signals were assumed to have a predefined shape (mostly Gaussian or triangular) which might not reflect the real uncertainty distribution which can vary with the associated measurement. In this paper, we will present a new approach which is based on an adaptive non-singleton interval type-2 FLS where the numerical uncertainties will be modeled and handled by non-singleton type-2 fuzzy inputs and the linguistic uncertainties will be handled by interval type-2 fuzzy sets to represent the antecedents’ linguistic labels. The non-singleton type-2 fuzzy inputs are dynamic and they are automatically generated from data and they do not assume a specific shape about the distribution associated with the given sensor. We will present several real world experiments using a real world robot which will show how the proposed type-2 non-singleton type-2 FLS will produce a superior performance to its singleton type-1 and type-2 counterparts when encountering high levels of uncertainties.</jats:p

Development of FPGA based Standalone Tunable Fuzzy Logic Controllers

Soft computing techniques differ from conventional (hard) computing, in that unlike hard computing, it is tolerant of imprecision, uncertainty, partial truth, and approximation. In effect, the role model for soft computing is the human mind and its ability to address day-to-day problems. The principal constituents of Soft Computing (SC) are Fuzzy Logic (FL), Evolutionary Computation (EC), Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This thesis presents a generic hardware architecture for type-I and type-II standalone tunable Fuzzy Logic Controllers (FLCs) in Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The designed FLC system can be remotely configured or tuned according to expert operated knowledge and deployed in different applications to replace traditional Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controllers. This re-configurability is added as a feature to existing FLCs in literature. The FLC parameters which are needed for tuning purpose are mainly input range, output range, number of inputs, number of outputs, the parameters of the membership functions like slope and center points, and an If-Else rule base for the fuzzy inference process. Online tuning enables users to change these FLC parameters in real-time and eliminate repeated hardware programming whenever there is a need to change. Realization of these systems in real-time is difficult as the computational complexity increases exponentially with an increase in the number of inputs. Hence, the challenge lies in reducing the rule base significantly such that the inference time and the throughput time is perceivable for real-time applications. To achieve these objectives, Modified Rule Active 2 Overlap Membership Function (MRA2-OMF), Modified Rule Active 3 Overlap Membership Function (MRA3-OMF), Modified Rule Active 4 Overlap Membership Function (MRA4-OMF), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) base rule optimization methods are proposed and implemented. These methods reduce the effective rules without compromising system accuracy and improve the cycle time in terms of Fuzzy Logic Inferences Per Second (FLIPS). In the proposed system architecture, the FLC is segmented into three independent modules, fuzzifier, inference engine with rule base, and defuzzifier. Fuzzy systems employ fuzzifier to convert the real world crisp input into the fuzzy output. In type 2 fuzzy systems there are two fuzzifications happen simultaneously from upper and lower membership functions (UMF and LMF) with subtractions and divisions. Non-restoring, very high radix, and newton raphson approximation are most widely used division algorithms in hardware implementations. However, these prevalent methods have a cost of more latency. In order to overcome this problem, a successive approximation division algorithm based type 2 fuzzifier is introduced. It has been observed that successive approximation based fuzzifier computation is faster than the other type 2 fuzzifier. A hardware-software co-design is established on Virtex 5 LX110T FPGA board. The MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) acquires the fuzzy (type 1 or type 2) parameters from users and a Universal Asynchronous Receiver/Transmitter (UART) is dedicated to data communication between the hardware and the fuzzy toolbox. This GUI is provided to initiate control, input, rule transfer, and then to observe the crisp output on the computer. A proposed method which can support canonical fuzzy IF-THEN rules, which includes special cases of the fuzzy rule base is included in Digital Fuzzy Logic Controller (DFLC) architecture. For this purpose, a mealy state machine is incorporated into the design. The proposed FLCs are implemented on Xilinx Virtex-5 LX110T. DFLC peripheral integration with Micro-Blaze (MB) processor through Processor Logic Bus (PLB) is established for Intellectual Property (IP) core validation. The performance of the proposed systems are compared to Fuzzy Toolbox of MATLAB. Analysis of these designs is carried out by using Hardware-In-Loop (HIL) test to control various plant models in MATLAB/Simulink environments

Soft Computing Techniques and Their Applications in Intel-ligent Industrial Control Systems: A Survey

Soft computing involves a series of methods that are compatible with imprecise information and complex human cognition. In the face of industrial control problems, soft computing techniques show strong intelligence, robustness and cost-effectiveness. This study dedicates to providing a survey on soft computing techniques and their applications in industrial control systems. The methodologies of soft computing are mainly classified in terms of fuzzy logic, neural computing, and genetic algorithms. The challenges surrounding modern industrial control systems are summarized based on the difficulties in information acquisition, the difficulties in modeling control rules, the difficulties in control system optimization, and the requirements for robustness. Then, this study reviews soft-computing-related achievements that have been developed to tackle these challenges. Afterwards, we present a retrospect of practical industrial control applications in the fields including transportation, intelligent machines, process industry as well as energy engineering. Finally, future research directions are discussed from different perspectives. This study demonstrates that soft computing methods can endow industry control processes with many merits, thus having great application potential. It is hoped that this survey can serve as a reference and provide convenience for scholars and practitioners in the fields of industrial control and computer science

Evaluation of a fuzzy-expert system for fault diagnosis in power systems

A major problem with alarm processing and fault diagnosis in power systems is the reliance on the circuit alarm status. If there is too much information available and the time of arrival of the information is random due to weather conditions etc., the alarm activity is not easily interpreted by system operators. In respect of these problems, this thesis sets out the work that has been carried out to design and evaluate a diagnostic tool which assists power system operators during a heavy period of alarm activity in condition monitoring. The aim of employing this diagnostic tool is to monitor and raise uncertain alarm information for the system operators, which serves a proposed solution for restoring such faults. The diagnostic system uses elements of AI namely expert systems, and fuzzy logic that incorporate abductive reasoning. The objective of employing abductive reasoning is to optimise an interpretation of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) based uncertain messages when the SCADA based messages are not satisfied with simple logic alone. The method consists of object-oriented programming, which demonstrates reusability, polymorphism, and readability. The principle behind employing objectoriented techniques is to provide better insights and solutions compared to conventional artificial intelligence (Al) programming languages. The characteristics of this work involve the development and evaluation of a fuzzy-expert system which tries to optimise the uncertainty in the 16-lines 12-bus sample power system. The performance of employing this diagnostic tool is assessed based on consistent data acquisition, readability, adaptability, and maintainability on a PC. This diagnostic tool enables operators to control and present more appropriate interpretations effectively rather than a mathematical based precise fault identification when the mathematical modelling fails and the period of alarm activity is high. This research contributes to the field of power system control, in particular Scottish Hydro-Electric PLC has shown interest and supplied all the necessary information and data. The AI based power system is presented as a sample application of Scottish Hydro-Electric and KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation)