Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems

To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The studies performed have created a basis for formation of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socioeconomic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted researches of social and economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that isn’t less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM). The essence of this tool is that owing to increase in power of computers it became possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as social and economic systems represent. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of social and economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the conclusion

Social Simulation That 'Peers into Peer Review'

This article suggests to view peer review as a social interaction problem and shows reasons for social simulators to investigate it. Although essential for science, peer review is largely understudied and current attempts to reform it are not supported by scientific evidence. We suggest that there is room for social simulation to fill this gap by spotlighting social mechanisms behind peer review at the microscope and understanding their implications for the science system. In particular, social simulation could help to understand why voluntary peer review works at all, explore the relevance of social sanctions and reputational motives to increase the commitment of agents involved, cast light on the economic cost of this institution for the science system and understand the influence of signals and social networks in determining biases in the reviewing process. Finally, social simulation could help to test policy scenarios to maximise the efficacy and efficiency of various peer review schemes under specific circumstances and for everyone involved.Peer Review, Social Simulation, Social Norms, Selection Biases, Science Policy

Environment design for emerging artificial societies

The NewTies project is developing a system in which societies of agents are expected to develop autonomously as a result of individual, population and social learning. These societies are expected to be able to solve the environmental challenges that they are set by acting collectively. The challenges are intended to be analogous to those faced by early, simple, small-scale human societies. Some issues in the construction of a virtual environment for the system are described and it is argued that multi-agent social simulation has so far tended to neglect the importance of environment design.agent-based modelling, stone age economics, economic anthropolgy

Companion modeling for multi-level water management

In natural resources governance, it is now largely accepted that scales are social and political constructs that are constantly evolving. Such a conceptualization of resources governance based on fluid cross-scale interactions raises therefore the question of how to integrate socio-economic and ecosystem dynamics in a coherent framework for adaptive management and decision making process. We propose to use a participatory and simulation approach based on social and biophysical simulation to improve the understanding of the interaction dynamics of the complex environmental and social system of catchment management in Africa. The models developped include both a simplified representation of relevant ecosystem dynamics and of social interactions with the resources. By facilitating interactions between different levels of stakeholders and policy-makers, we want to strengthen the collective decision-making process of stakeholders dealing with risk and uncertainty. The approach will be tested both in the Volta and Limpopo basins with emphasis on the multilevel interactions to manage the water resources between different users and stakeholders. A comparative analysis in both basins will allow for understanding the role of small scale infrastructure management in semi arid system resilience. The challenges will be to account for the management of small scale infrastructure within the territorial management unit of the resources. It is expected that the approach will contribute to the building and/or consolidation of the related discussion/consultation bodies through social and transformative learning. (Texte intégral

Economic sustainability and risk efficiency of organic versus conventional cropping systems

Environmental, social and economic attributes are important for the sustainability of a farming system. Resilience is also important yet has seldom been directly considered in evaluations of economic sustainability. In economic terms, resilience has to do with the capacity of the farm business to survive various risks and other shocks. A whole-farm stochastic simulation model over a six-year planning horizon was used to analyse organic and conventional cropping systems using a model of a representative farm in Eastern Norway. The relative economic sustainability of alternative systems under changing assumptions about future technology and price regimes was examined in terms of financial survival to the end of the planning period. The same alternatives were also compared in terms of stochastic efficiency. The results illustrate possible confl icts between pursuit of risk efficiency and sustainability. The model developed could be useful in supporting farmers’ choices between farming systems as well as in helping policy makers to develop more sharply targeted policies

Risk and economic sustainability of crop farming systems

Environmental, social and economic attributes are important for the sustainability of a farming system. Comparing farming systems by considering only expected profitability ignores differences in both sustainability and in the riskiness of system returns. Further, in choosing between farming systems, the ability to survive various risks and shocks and con-tinue in the future is important, i.e., system resilience and persistence are important aspects of sustainabil-ity. Yet resilience and persistence have seldom been directly considered in evaluations of economic sus-tainability. A whole-farm stochastic simulation model over a six-year planning horizon was used to compare organic and conventional cropping systems for a representative farm situation in Eastern Norway. The relative sustainability of alternative systems under changing assumptions about future technology and price regimes was examined in terms of terminal financial position. The risk efficiency of the same alternatives was also compared. The results illustrate possible conflicts between pursuit of risk efficiency versus sustainability. The model used could be useful in supporting farmers’ choice between farming sys-tems as well for policy makers to develop more sharply targeted policies

CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System

Microsimulation allows to apply a set of deterministic or stochastic rules on a sample of micro-unit such as individuals, households, .rms or institutions. A Dynamic Microsimulation Model (DMM) contains a set of rules aiming at projecting the likely socio-economic evolution of a representative sample of individuals throughout time. In this paper, we describe the simulation algorithms and the econom(etr)ic frameworks used in CAPP DYN, a population based DMM for the analysis of the inter- and intra-generational redistributive e.ects of the Italian social security system. By including detailed rules that determine the eligibility to various social security bene.ts, CAPP DYN is quali.ed as a useful tool in assessing the long-run distributional e.ects of the reforms approved in the Italian social security system.Dynamic Microsimulation; Pensions; Long-term care

Energy and economic analysis of a residential Solar Organic Rankine plant

To answer the actual energy, water, economic, social and environmental challenges, renewable, distributed power plants need to be developed. Among renewables, solar tri-generative power plants can be a solution where there is big low temperature heating/cooling demand and small electricity demand, like many residential and industrial utilities. In this case, solar thermal plants can produce thermal energy with low cost and high efficiency. The higher temperature heat not needed by the user can be exploited via Organic Rankine Cycle to produce electrical energy and desalinized water via reverse osmosis. The present paper analyses, via TRNSYS simulation, a system composed of 50 m2 of CPC solar thermal collectors, 3 m3 of thermal storage, a synthetic heat transfer fluid, 3 kWe ORC, 8 kWth absorber, 200 l/h direct reverse osmosis desalination device. The system is able to produce power, heating/cooling and fresh water needs for a residential house. Although system’s components are well known technologies, the integration to a efficient and economic working system is still a challenge. Global energy and economic analyses have been performed. Low temperature heating/cooling terminals allow to increase not only the use of thermal energy but also the ORCand absorber efficiency. ORC-Absorber configuration and relative fluids and temperatures are central. Government support and/or cost reduction of 30% are necessary to have positive NPV and acceptable PBT and IR