Alternative Approaches to the Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models

This paper draws on the metaphor of a spectrum of models ranging from the most theory-driven to the most evidence-driven. The issue of concern is the practice and criteria that will be appro- priate to validation of different models. In order to address this concern, two modelling approaches are investigated in some detailed – one from each end of our metaphorical spectrum. Windrum et al. (2007) (http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/10/2/8.html) claimed strong similarities between agent based social simulation and conventional social science – specifically econometric – approaches to empirical modelling and on that basis considered how econometric validation techniques might be used in empirical social simulations more broadly. An alternative is the approach of the French school of \'companion modelling\' associated with Bousquet, Barreteau, Le Page and others which engages stakeholders in the modelling and validation process. The conventional approach is con- strained by prior theory and the French school approach by evidence. In this sense they are at opposite ends of the theory-evidence spectrum. The problems for validation identified by Windrum et al. are shown to be irrelevant to companion modelling which readily incorporate complexity due to realistically descriptive specifications of individual behaviour and social interaction. The result combines the precision of formal approaches with the richness of narrative scenarios. Companion modelling is therefore found to be practicable and to achieve what is claimed for it and this alone is a key difference from conventional social science including agent based computational economics.Social Simulation, Validation, Companion Modelling, Data Generating Mechanisms, Complexity

Towards Good Social Science

The paper investigates what is meant by "good science" and "bad science" and how these differ as between the natural (physical and biological) sciences on the one hand and social sciences on the other. We conclude on the basis of historical evidence that the natural science are much more heavily constrained by evidence and observation than by theory while the social sciences are constrained by prior theory and hardly at all by direct evidence. Current examples of the latter proposition are taken from recent issues of leading social science journals. We argue that agent based social simulations can be used as a tool to constrain the development of a new social science by direct (what economists dismiss as anecdotal) evidence and that to do so would make social science relevant to the understanding and influencing of social processes. We argue that such a development is both possible and desirable. We do not argue that it is likely.Methodology, Agent Based Social Simulation, Qualitative Analysis; Evidence; Conditions of Application; History of Science

Towards agent-based crowd simulation in airports using games technology

We adapt popular video games technology for an agent-based crowd simulation in an airport terminal. To achieve this, we investigate the unique traits of airports and implement a virtual crowd by exploiting a scalable layered intelligence technique in combination with physics middleware and a socialforces approach. Our experiments show that the framework runs at interactive frame-rate and evaluate the scalability with increasing number of agents demonstrating navigation behaviour

e-Social Science and Evidence-Based Policy Assessment : Challenges and Solutions

Peer reviewedPreprin

Linked lives: the utility of an agent-based approach to modelling partnership and household formation in the context of social care

The UK’s population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of “linked lives” and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes

Evolution of Consumers’ Preferences due to Innovation

The integration process between evolutionary approach and conventional economic analysis is very essential for the next development of economic studies, especially in the fundamental concepts of modern economics: supply and demand analysis. In this presentation, we use the concept of meme to explore evolution of demand. This study offers an evolutionary model of demand, which views utility as a function of the distance between the two types of sequences of memes (memeplex), which represent economic product and consumer preference. It is very different from the conventional approach of demand, which only views utility as a function of quantity. This modification provides an opportunity to see innovation and transformation of consumer preferences in the demand perspective. Innovation is seen as a change in sequence of memes in economic products, while the transformation of consumer behavior is defined as a change in the aligning memes of consumer preference. Demand quantity is the result of the selection process. This model produces some interesting characteristics, such as: (i) quantitative and qualitative properties of evolution of demand, (ii) relationship between consumer behavior and properties of evolution of demand that occurred and (iii) power law on the distribution of product lifetime. At the end we show the improvement of utility function, in the concept of meme, might create a new landscape for the further development of economics

Agent based modeling of energy networks

Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed