Approximating multivariate distributions with vines

In a series of papers, Bedford and Cooke used vine (or pair-copulae) as a graphical tool for representing complex high dimensional distributions in terms of bivariate and conditional bivariate distributions or copulae. In this paper, we show that how vines can be used to approximate any given multivariate distribution to any required degree of approximation. This paper is more about the approximation rather than optimal estimation methods. To maintain uniform approximation in the class of copulae used to build the corresponding vine we use minimum information approaches. We generalised the results found by Bedford and Cooke that if a minimal information copula satis¯es each of the (local) constraints (on moments, rank correlation, etc.), then the resulting joint distribution will be also minimally informative given those constraints, to all regular vines. We then apply our results to modelling a dataset of Norwegian financial data that was previously analysed in Aas et al. (2009)

Efficient Rank Reduction of Correlation Matrices

Geometric optimisation algorithms are developed that efficiently find the nearest low-rank correlation matrix. We show, in numerical tests, that our methods compare favourably to the existing methods in the literature. The connection with the Lagrange multiplier method is established, along with an identification of whether a local minimum is a global minimum. An additional benefit of the geometric approach is that any weighted norm can be applied. The problem of finding the nearest low-rank correlation matrix occurs as part of the calibration of multi-factor interest rate market models to correlation.Comment: First version: 20 pages, 4 figures Second version [changed content]: 21 pages, 6 figure

Online self-repair of FIR filters

Chip-level failure detection has been a target of research for some time, but today's very deep-submicron technology is forcing such research to move beyond detection. Repair, especially self-repair, has become very important for containing the susceptibility of today's chips. This article introduces a self-repair-solution for the digital FIR filter, one of the key blocks used in DSPs

Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Maximally symmetric stabilizer MUBs in even prime-power dimensions

One way to construct a maximal set of mutually unbiased bases (MUBs) in a prime-power dimensional Hilbert space is by means of finite phase-space methods. MUBs obtained in this way are covariant with respect to some subgroup of the group of all affine symplectic phase-space transformations. However, this construction is not canonical: as a consequence, many different choices of covariance sugroups are possible. In particular, when the Hilbert space is $2^n$ dimensional, it is known that covariance with respect to the full group of affine symplectic phase-space transformations can never be achieved. Here we show that in this case there exist two essentially different choices of maximal subgroups admitting covariant MUBs. For both of them, we explicitly construct a family of $2^n$ covariant MUBs. We thus prove that, contrary to the odd dimensional case, maximally covariant MUBs are very far from being unique.Comment: 22 page

Semidefinite Relaxations for Stochastic Optimal Control Policies

Recent results in the study of the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation have led to the discovery of a formulation of the value function as a linear Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for stochastic nonlinear systems with a mild constraint on their disturbances. This has yielded promising directions for research in the planning and control of nonlinear systems. This work proposes a new method obtaining approximate solutions to these linear stochastic optimal control (SOC) problems. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the SOC problem. A Sum of Squares (SOS) relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function.Comment: Preprint. Accepted to American Controls Conference (ACC) 2014 in Portland, Oregon. 7 pages, colo