CoMadOut -- A Robust Outlier Detection Algorithm based on CoMAD

Unsupervised learning methods are well established in the area of anomaly detection and achieve state of the art performances on outlier data sets. Outliers play a significant role, since they bear the potential to distort the predictions of a machine learning algorithm on a given data set. Especially among PCA-based methods, outliers have an additional destructive potential regarding the result: they may not only distort the orientation and translation of the principal components, they also make it more complicated to detect outliers. To address this problem, we propose the robust outlier detection algorithm CoMadOut, which satisfies two required properties: (1) being robust towards outliers and (2) detecting them. Our outlier detection method using coMAD-PCA defines dependent on its variant an inlier region with a robust noise margin by measures of in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD). These measures allow distribution based outlier scoring for each principal component, and thus, for an appropriate alignment of the decision boundary between normal and abnormal instances. Experiments comparing CoMadOut with traditional, deep and other comparable robust outlier detection methods showed that the performance of the introduced CoMadOut approach is competitive to well established methods related to average precision (AP), recall and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. In summary our approach can be seen as a robust alternative for outlier detection tasks

3D Geometric Analysis of Tubular Objects based on Surface Normal Accumulation

This paper proposes a simple and efficient method for the reconstruction and extraction of geometric parameters from 3D tubular objects. Our method constructs an image that accumulates surface normal information, then peaks within this image are located by tracking. Finally, the positions of these are optimized to lie precisely on the tubular shape centerline. This method is very versatile, and is able to process various input data types like full or partial mesh acquired from 3D laser scans, 3D height map or discrete volumetric images. The proposed algorithm is simple to implement, contains few parameters and can be computed in linear time with respect to the number of surface faces. Since the extracted tube centerline is accurate, we are able to decompose the tube into rectilinear parts and torus-like parts. This is done with a new linear time 3D torus detection algorithm, which follows the same principle of a previous work on 2D arc circle recognition. Detailed experiments show the versatility, accuracy and robustness of our new method.Comment: in 18th International Conference on Image Analysis and Processing, Sep 2015, Genova, Italy. 201

Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: Functional time series methods with dynamic updating

As a forward-looking measure of future equity market volatility, the VIX index has gained immense popularity in recent years to become a key measure of risk for market analysts and academics. We consider discrete reported intraday VIX tick values as realisations of a collection of curves observed sequentially on equally spaced and dense grids over time and utilise functional data analysis techniques to produce one-day-ahead forecasts of these curves. The proposed method facilitates the investigation of dynamic changes in the index over very short time intervals as showcased using the 15-second high-frequency VIX index values. With the help of dynamic updating techniques, our point and interval forecasts are shown to enjoy improved accuracy over conventional time series models.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, To appear at the Annals of Operations Researc

Robust Subspace System Identification via Weighted Nuclear Norm Optimization

Subspace identification is a classical and very well studied problem in system identification. The problem was recently posed as a convex optimization problem via the nuclear norm relaxation. Inspired by robust PCA, we extend this framework to handle outliers. The proposed framework takes the form of a convex optimization problem with an objective that trades off fit, rank and sparsity. As in robust PCA, it can be problematic to find a suitable regularization parameter. We show how the space in which a suitable parameter should be sought can be limited to a bounded open set of the two dimensional parameter space. In practice, this is very useful since it restricts the parameter space that is needed to be surveyed.Comment: Submitted to the IFAC World Congress 201