Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Formation Stresses for Marcellus Shale with Data from Drilling Operations

Artificial neural networks have been applied to different petroleum engineering disciplines. This is contributed to the powerful prediction capability in complex relationships with enough data available. The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology to predict the vertical and horizontal stresses using artificial neural networks for Marcellus shale well laterally drilled in Monongalia County, WV.;This approach coupled the drilling surface measurements with the recorded well logging data. Drilling parameters included depth, WOB, RPM, standpipe pressure, torque, pump flow rate and rate of penetration. Well logging data included gamma ray and bulk density. The model output was the minimum horizontal stress and vertical stress. The well trajectory was divided into two main parts, the vertical and lateral section since the change in the drilling direction along with changing structural geology and sedimentation impacted the resultant stresses.;Several neural networks were designed with a different number of feedforward backpropagation architectures. The collected data was filtered and normalized before neural networks were trained using part of data. A percentage of the data was used to validate the trained model. Finally, a blind data set aside was used to test the model prediction accuracy and to estimate error percentages. Preliminary results show that adding logging data such as gamma ray and bulk density improves the model accuracy. Also, increasing the number of hidden layers and neurons improved the efficiency. However, higher the number of neurons and hidden layers higher was the computational cost due to increased model convergence time.;The correlation coefficients of the predicted and observed values ranged between 0.76 and 0.99. This approach is beneficial regarding hydraulic fracturing design and fracture orientation prediction in unconventional shales

Do System Test Cases Grow Old?

Companies increasingly use either manual or automated system testing to ensure the quality of their software products. As a system evolves and is extended with new features the test suite also typically grows as new test cases are added. To ensure software quality throughout this process the test suite is continously executed, often on a daily basis. It seems likely that newly added tests would be more likely to fail than older tests but this has not been investigated in any detail on large-scale, industrial software systems. Also it is not clear which methods should be used to conduct such an analysis. This paper proposes three main concepts that can be used to investigate aging effects in the use and failure behavior of system test cases: test case activation curves, test case hazard curves, and test case half-life. To evaluate these concepts and the type of analysis they enable we apply them on an industrial software system containing more than one million lines of code. The data sets comes from a total of 1,620 system test cases executed a total of more than half a million times over a time period of two and a half years. For the investigated system we find that system test cases stay active as they age but really do grow old; they go through an infant mortality phase with higher failure rates which then decline over time. The test case half-life is between 5 to 12 months for the two studied data sets.Comment: Updated with nicer figs without border around the

Counterfactual Risk Minimization: Learning from Logged Bandit Feedback

We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art.Comment: 10 page

Chemical fingerprinting of wood sampled along a pith-to-bark gradient for individual comparison and provenance identification

Background and Objectives: The origin of traded timber is one of the main questions in the enforcement of regulations to combat the illegal timber trade. Substantial efforts are still needed to develop techniques that can determine the exact geographical provenance of timber and this is vital to counteract the destructive effects of illegal logging, ranging from economical loss to habitat destruction. The potential of chemical fingerprints from pith-to-bark growth rings for individual comparison and geographical provenance determination is explored. Materials and Methods: A wood sliver was sampled per growth ring from four stem disks from four individuals of Pericopsis elata (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and from 14 stem disks from 14 individuals of Terminalia superba (Cote d'Ivoire and Democratic Republic of the Congo). Chemical fingerprints were obtained by analyzing these wood slivers with Direct Analysis in Real Time Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (DART TOFMS). Results: Individual distinction for both species was achieved but the accuracy was dependent on the dataset size and number of individuals included. As this is still experimental, we can only speak of individual comparison and not individual distinction at this point. The prediction accuracy for the country of origin increases with increasing sample number and a random sample can be placed in the correct country. When a complete disk is removed from the training dataset, its rings (samples) are correctly attributed to the country with an accuracy ranging from 43% to 100%. Relative abundances of ions appear to contribute more to differentiation compared to frequency differences. Conclusions: DART TOFMS shows potential for geographical provenancing but is still experimental for individual distinction; more research is needed to make this an established method. Sampling campaigns should focus on sampling tree cores from pith-to-bark, paving the way towards a chemical fingerprint database for species provenance

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million actions taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, our model improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

What Causes My Test Alarm? Automatic Cause Analysis for Test Alarms in System and Integration Testing

Driven by new software development processes and testing in clouds, system and integration testing nowadays tends to produce enormous number of alarms. Such test alarms lay an almost unbearable burden on software testing engineers who have to manually analyze the causes of these alarms. The causes are critical because they decide which stakeholders are responsible to fix the bugs detected during the testing. In this paper, we present a novel approach that aims to relieve the burden by automating the procedure. Our approach, called Cause Analysis Model, exploits information retrieval techniques to efficiently infer test alarm causes based on test logs. We have developed a prototype and evaluated our tool on two industrial datasets with more than 14,000 test alarms. Experiments on the two datasets show that our tool achieves an accuracy of 58.3% and 65.8%, respectively, which outperforms the baseline algorithms by up to 13.3%. Our algorithm is also extremely efficient, spending about 0.1s per cause analysis. Due to the attractive experimental results, our industrial partner, a leading information and communication technology company in the world, has deployed the tool and it achieves an average accuracy of 72% after two months of running, nearly three times more accurate than a previous strategy based on regular expressions.Comment: 12 page

Using LSTM recurrent neural networks for monitoring the LHC superconducting magnets

The superconducting LHC magnets are coupled with an electronic monitoring system which records and analyses voltage time series reflecting their performance. A currently used system is based on a range of preprogrammed triggers which launches protection procedures when a misbehavior of the magnets is detected. All the procedures used in the protection equipment were designed and implemented according to known working scenarios of the system and are updated and monitored by human operators. This paper proposes a novel approach to monitoring and fault protection of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) superconducting magnets which employs state-of-the-art Deep Learning algorithms. Consequently, the authors of the paper decided to examine the performance of LSTM recurrent neural networks for modeling of voltage time series of the magnets. In order to address this challenging task different network architectures and hyper-parameters were used to achieve the best possible performance of the solution. The regression results were measured in terms of RMSE for different number of future steps and history length taken into account for the prediction. The best result of RMSE=0.00104 was obtained for a network of 128 LSTM cells within the internal layer and 16 steps history buffer