Stable non-standard imprecise probabilities

Stability arises as the consistency criterion in a betting interpretation for hyperreal imprecise previsions, that is imprecise previsions (and probabilities) which may take infinitesimal values. The purpose of this work is to extend the notion of stable coherence introduced in [8] to conditional hyperreal imprecise probabilities. Our investigation extends the de Finetti-Walley operational characterisation of (imprecise) prevision to conditioning on events which are considered "practically impossible" but not "logically impossible"

Layers of zero probability and stable coherence over Łukasiewicz events

The notion of stable coherence has been recently introduced to characterize coherent assignments to conditional many-valued events by means of hyperreal-valued states. In a nutshell, an assignment, or book, β on a finite set of conditional events is stably coherent if there exists a coherent variant β of β such that β maps all antecedents of conditional events to a strictly positive hyperreal number, and such that β and β differ by an infinitesimal. In this paper, we provide a characterization of stable coherence in terms of layers of zero probability for books on Łukasiewicz logic events. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The authors would like to thank there referee for the valuable comments that considerably improved the presentation of this paper. Flaminio has been funded by the Italian project FIRB 2010 (RBFR10DGUA_002). Godo has been also funded by the MINECO/FEDER Project TIN2015-71799-C2-1-P.Peer Reviewe

On the algebraic structure of conditional events

This paper initiates an investigation of conditional measures as simple measures on conditional events. As a first step towards this end we investigate the construction of conditional algebras which allow us to distinguish between the logical properties of conditional events and those of the conditional measures which we can be attached to them. This distinction, we argue, helps us clarifying both concepts

A notion of coherence for books on conditional events in many-valued logic

We introduce a new approach to conditional probability over many-valued events, which is based on bets. Then we show that this approach fits with Kroupa's approach, and we give two characterizations of coherence for books on conditional many-valued events, the first one based on states, and the second one based on logical coherence of a suitable theory on many-valued logic