From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Prospects of the Activity-Based Modelling Approach: A Review of Sweden’s Transport Model- SAMPERS

The rapid changes in global development scenarios, such as technological advancements, lifestyle decisions and climate change, call for updated transport models to test micro-level policy decisions. This paper explores the advances in activity-based transport modelling in simulating travel demand in urban scenarios, focusing on Sweden’s National Transport model. Sampers is used for impact analysis, investment calculations for traffic simulations, transport policy implementation evaluations, and accessibility and impact analysis of extensive changes in land use and transport systems in cities and regions of Sweden. This research systematically compares individual components, sub-models, and algorithms and discusses integrations with cutting-edge agent-based models. Furthermore, recent research and projects for Sampers are investigated, highlighting its advantages over current models, potential gaps and limitations, and long-term development prospects. The study concludes by cross-referencing Sampers’ global developments and regional needs to assess its long-term development prospects

Data-parallel agent-based microscopic road network simulation using graphics processing units

Road network microsimulation is computationally expensive, and existing state of the art commercial tools use task parallelism and coarse-grained data-parallelism for multi-core processors to achieve improved levels of performance. An alternative is to use Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and fine-grained data parallelism. This paper describes a GPU accelerated agent based microsimulation model of a road network transport system. The performance for a procedurally generated grid network is evaluated against that of an equivalent multi-core CPU simulation. In order to utilise GPU architectures effectively the paper describes an approach for graph traversal of neighbouring information which is vital to providing high levels of computational performance. The graph traversal approach has been integrated within a GPU agent based simulation framework as a generalised message traversal technique for graph-based communication. Speed-ups of up to 43 ×  are demonstrated with increased performance scaling behaviour. Simulation of over half a million vehicles and nearly two million detectors at a rate of 25 ×  faster than real-time is obtained on a single GPU