12,284 research outputs found
Report No. 28: Review of Methodologies Applied for the Assessment of Employment and Social Impacts
Joint report with ECORYS Netherlands for the DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission, Bonn 2010 (217 pages)
Socio-economic evaluation of sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil in view of the potential implementation of innovative plant protein ingredients for human consumption
This study aimed at performing a socio-economic analysis of an agri-food chain focused on a non-established crop in view of the potential implementation of food innovations, using sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil and upcoming sunflower high-quality food protein ingredients as a case study. Thus, fieldwork was carried out in the main sunflower-producing areas between April and August 2016 for data collection among sunflower chain agents from the input, farming, and processing segments, besides representatives from the research sector. Section 1 applied a multiple case study embedded design to describe and analyze the dynamics of operation of sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil. The analysis followed a theory-driven approach based on concepts from transaction costs economics and the social network approach. The findings indicated an environment of high transaction costs, in which the economic transactions are ruled by formal and relational governance structures, and made possible through knowledge diffusion, under the coordination of a processing company. Nevertheless, the sustainable long-term operation of the sunflower chains is constrained by typical limitations of non-established crops, such as restricted market structure, land use competition with well-established crops, and technological limitations regarding plant breeding, and control of pests and diseases. Moreover, Section 1 revealed that a farmer-led sunflower chain in the state of Mato Grosso (MT) stood out regarding the operational stability, suggesting a closer analysis of this farmers collective endeavor, which was performed in the subsequent section. Thus, Section 2 adopted a single case study embedded design to describe and analyze the establishment process of the leading Brazilian sunflower agri-food chain located in MT under the regime of farmers. The analysis followed a framework that regarded the agri-food chain establishment as an entrepreneurial process. The findings indicated that the process of establishment of this sunflower chain has been a complex social-economic endeavor stemming from a set of interconnected driving forces composed of entrepreneurial skills, social network, resource availability, and crop suitability. Furthermore, Section 2 suggested the existence of a supportive institutional environment for the establishment of new sunflower agri-food chains in MT among soybean farmers, besides indicating the need of examining the potential for sunflower production expansion in MT, which was the focus of the next section. Thus, Section 3 applied an integrated assessment approach that combines an agent-based model (ABM) with a crop growth model to investigate the potential for sunflower land use expansion in double-cropping systems prevailing in MT. The ABM was implemented using the software package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS), and the crop yields simulations were implemented using the process-based model for nitrogen and carbon in agro-ecosystems (MONICA). The findings indicated the existence of a potential for the expansion of the sunflower production in MT. Nevertheless, this potential is constrained by the distance between the producing areas and the processing facilities. Moreover, the simulations confirmed the land use competition between sunflower and maize, showing that sunflower land use is strongly associated with agents expectations regarding prices and yields of sunflower and maize. However, the results also revealed a complementary effect between these two crops due to the different water deficit tolerance of these crops. Section 3 also highlighted that the simulated potential production of sunflower would require further increases in the current processing capacity installed in MT. To conclude, the analyses performed in Sections 1, 2, and 3 indicated relevant aspects to be considered by innovators interested in implementing food innovations related to non-established crops. The scarcity of feedstock suppliers requires the adoption of contractual and relational governance structures coupled with the provision of technical assistance at the farming level. Moreover, farmers with a recognized professional and social reputation as well as leadership abilities play an important role in influencing other farmers to adopt a non-established crop. Finally, the suitability of the crop for the agricultural system prevailing in the region is essential for ensuring a minimum level of farmers willingness to adopt a non-established crop. In this regard, particular attention should be given to the land use competition with well-established crops.Die vorliegende Arbeit auf die DurchfĂŒhrung einer sozio-ökonomischen Analyse einer Agrar- und Lebensmittelkette unter Fokussierung auf eine nicht etablierte Feldfrucht und im Hinblick auf die potenzielle Implementierung von Lebensmittelinnovationen. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Agrar- und Lebensmittelkette der Sonnenblume in Brasilien und in der Entwicklung befindliche hochqualitative Proteininhaltsstoffe auf Basis dieser Pflanze als Fallstudie betrachtet. Abschnitt 1 verwendet als Untersuchungsmethode einen mehrfachen Fallstudienansatz, um die Funktionsdynamik der agrarischen Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungsketten in Brasilien zu beschreiben und zu analysieren. Die Analyse folgte einem auf der Theorie der Transaktionskosten und der Theorie von sozialen Netzwerken basierenden Ansatz. Die Ergebnisse zeigen ein Umfeld hoher Transaktionskosten, in welchem die Transaktionen von formalen und beziehungsgebundenen Governancestrukturen beherrscht werden, hervorgerufen durch Wissensdiffusion unter dem koordinierenden Einfluss eines verarbeitenden Unternehmens. Dennoch ist eine dauerhaft nachhaltige Funktion von Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungsketten, wie fĂŒr nicht etablierte FeldfrĂŒchte typisch, eingeschrĂ€nkt: dies wird bedingt durch eine begrenzte Marktstruktur, Landnutzungskonkurrenzen mit gut etablierten FeldfrĂŒchten und technologische Limitierungen im Hinblick auf die Pflanzenzucht sowie den Pflanzenschutz. DarĂŒber hinaus zeigt Abschnitt 1, dass eine durch die Landwirte selbst organisierte Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungskette im Bundesstaat Mato Grosso (MT) sich durch ihre funktionale StabilitĂ€t hervortut. Entsprechend wird in Abschnitt 2 ein einfacher Fallstudienansatz gewĂ€hlt, um den Entstehungsprozess der prominentesten Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungskette Brasiliens, ansĂ€ssig in MT und organisiert von Landwirten, zu beschreiben und zu analysieren. Dabei folgt die Analyse der Vorstellung, dass die Entstehung der agrarischen Lebensmittelwertschöpfungskette einem unternehmerischen Prozess entspricht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Entstehungsprozess dieser Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungskette einer komplexen sozio-ökonomischen Anstrengung entspringt, resultierend aus einer Mischung untereinander verbundener Antriebe: unternehmerischer Kompetenzen, sozialer Netzwerke, vorhandener Ressourcen und passender FeldfrĂŒchte. Im weiteren Verlauf deutet Abschnitt 2 die Existenz eines unterstĂŒtzenden institutionellen Umfelds fĂŒr die Etablierung neuer Sonnenblumenwertschöpfungsketten in MT unter den Landwirten an, die bislang Soja anbauen. Abschnitt 3 nutzt den Ansatz einer integrierten AbschĂ€tzung und kombiniert hierzu ein Agenten-basiertes Modell (ABM) mit einem Pflanzenwachstumsmodell, um das Potenzial der AnbauflĂ€chenausweitung fĂŒr Sonnenblumen in den vorherrschenden Zweifruchtsystemen in MT zu untersuchen. Das ABM wurde mithilfe der Software Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) umgesetzt, die Ertragssimulation erfolgte mittels des prozessbasierten Models for nitrogen and carbon in agro-ecoystems (MONICA). Die Ergebnisse zeigen ein Potenzial der Produktionsausweitung von Sonnenblumen in MT an. Jedoch ist dieses Potenzial limitiert durch die Entfernungen zwischen Anbaugebieten und VerarbeitungsstĂ€tten. DarĂŒber hinaus bestĂ€tigen die Simulationen die Landnutzungskonkurrenzen zwischen Sonnenblumen und Mais: es besteht ein starker Zusammenhang der Akteure im Hinblick auf erwartete Preise und ErtrĂ€ge dieser FeldfrĂŒchte. Allerdings zeigen die Ergebnisse auch, dass ein komplementĂ€rer Effekt zwischen Sonnenblumen und Mais besteht, da unterschiedliche Toleranzen gegenĂŒber Trockenstress existieren. Abschnitt 3 zeigt zudem, dass das simulierte Potenzial der Anbauausweitung von Sonnenblumen einen Ausbau der aktuell vorhandenen VerarbeitungskapazitĂ€t in MT bedarf. Zusammenfassend beschreiben die Analysen der Abschnitte 1, 2 und 3 die von gestaltenden Akteuren zu beachtenden Aspekte, wenn Lebensmittelinnovationen durch nicht etablierte FeldfrĂŒchte erfolgen sollen. Die Knappheit an Rohstofflieferanten erfordert den Einsatz vertraglicher und beziehungsgebundener Governancestrukturen, verknĂŒpft mit der Bereitstellung technischer UnterstĂŒtzung fĂŒr die landwirtschaftliche Erzeugung. Zudem spielen Landwirte mit hoher ProfessionalitĂ€t, sozialer Reputation und FĂŒhrungsqualitĂ€ten eine wichtige Rolle im Einwirken auf andere Landwirte bezĂŒglich des Anbaus von nicht etablierten FeldfrĂŒchten. SchlieĂlich ist die grundsĂ€tzliche Eignung dieser FeldfrĂŒchte fĂŒr das regional vorherrschende Anbausystem unverzichtbar, um ein MindestmaĂ an Anbaubereitschaft fĂŒr nicht etablierte FrĂŒchte bei den Landwirten sicherzustellen. In dieser Hinsicht ist besondere Aufmerksamkeit bezĂŒglich der Landnutzungskonkurrenzen mit gut etablierten FeldfrĂŒchten angezeigt
Simulation of logistics in food retailing for freight transportation analysis
The study contributes to fill the gap between freight transportation analysis and logistic research. It describes the model SYNTRADE, a simulation model that reproduces logistic structures in the German food retailing sector. Logistic decisions and their interdependencies are simulated based on heuristics from the field of logistic optimization. The model provides the possibility to analyze changes in logistics and freight transport demand on a company, as well as on an overall sector level
An Economic and Life Cycle Analysis of Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans, Research Report 11-25
Travel and emissions models are commonly applied to evaluate the change in passenger and commercial travel and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and transportation plans. Analyses conducted by the Sacramento Area Council of Governments predict a decline in such travel and emissions from their land use and transportation plan (the âPreferred Blueprintâ or PRB scenario) relative to a âBusiness-As-Usualâ scenario (BAU). However, the lifecycle GHG effects due to changes in production and consumption associated with transportation and land use plans are rarely, if ever, conducted. An earlier study conducted by the authors, applied a spatial economic model (Sacramento PECAS) to the PRB plan and found that lower labor, transport, and rental costs increased producer and consumer surplus and production and consumption relative to the BAU. As a result, lifecycle GHG emissions from these upstream economic activities may increase. At the same time, lifecycle GHG emissions associated with the manufacture of construction materials for housing may decline due to a shift in the plan from larger luxury homes to smaller multi-family homes in the plan. To explore the net impact of these opposing GHG impacts, the current study used the economic production and consumption data from the PRB and BAU scenarios as simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model as inputs to estimate the change in lifecycle GHG emissions. The economic input-output lifecycle assessment model is applied to evaluate effects related to changes in economic production and consumption as well as housing construction.
This study also builds on the findings from two previous studies, which suggest potential economic incentives for jurisdictional non-compliance with Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCSs) under Senate Bill 375 (also known as the âanti-sprawlâ bill). SB 375 does not require local governments to adopt general plans that are consistent with the land use plans included in SCSs, and thus such incentives could jeopardize implementation of SCSs and achievement of GHG goals. In this study, a set of scenarios is simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model, in which multiple jurisdictions partially pursue the BAU at differing rates. The PRB is treated as a straw or example SCS. The scenarios are evaluated to understand how non-conformity may influence the supply of housing by type, and holding other factors constant, the geographic and income distribution of rents, wages, commute costs, and consumer surplus
Institutions and economic policies for pro-poor agricultural growth
"This paper draws together findings from different elements of a research project examining critical components of pro-poor agricultural growth and of policies that can promote such growth in poor rural economies in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural growth, a critical driver in poverty reducing growth in many poor agrarian economies in the past, faces many difficulties in today's poor rural areas in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of these difficulties are endogenous to these areas while others result from broader processes of global change. Active state interventions in 'kick starting' markets in 20th century green revolutions suggest that another major difficulty may be current policies which emphasize the benefits of liberalization and state withdrawal but fail to address critical institutional constraints to market and economic development in poor rural areas. This broad hypothesis was tested in an analysis of the returns (in agricultural growth and poverty reduction) to different government spending in India over the last forty years. The results reject the alternate hypothesis underlying much current policy, that fertilizer and credit subsidies, for example, depressed agricultural growth and poverty reduction in the early stages of agricultural transformation. The results show initially high but then declining impacts from fertilizer subsidies; high benefits from investment in roads, education and agricultural R&D during all periods and varying benefits from credit subsidies over four decades; low impacts from power subsidies; and intermediate impacts from irrigation investments. These findings demand a fundamental reassessment of policies espousing state withdrawal from markets in poor agrarian economies. Given widespread state failure in many poor agrarian economies today, particularly in Africa, new thinking is urgently needed to find alternative ways of 'kick starting' markets ways which reduce rent seeking opportunities, promote rather than crowd-out private sector investment, and allow the state to withdraw as economic growth proceeds. Authors' AbstractAgricultural growth ,Poverty, Rural ,South Asia Rural poor ,Africa, Sub-Saharan ,Agrarian economies ,Globalization ,Green Revolution ,Poverty alleviation ,Government spending policy India ,
A Quantitative Framework for Assessing Public Investment in Tourism : An Application to Haiti
This study develops a linked regional computable general equilibrium and micro-simulation (RCGE-MS) model to assess the regional economy-wide and poverty impacts of a US$36 million investment in tourism in the south of Haiti. The first social accounting matrix for Haiti with a base year of 2012/2013 was constructed to calibrate the model. This research addresses three key gaps identified in the tourism impact assessment literature. First, a destination-specific tourism demand and value chain analysis was used to calibrate the shocks implemented in the model. Second, the RCGE-MS approach moves beyond the representative household configuration to enable more robust analysis of tourism investment impacts on poverty and income inequality. Third, results of this modelling were used to inform a social cost-benefit analysis to provide greater transparency in the evaluation of trade-offs between investment alternatives. Considering the investment and projected tourism demand, results show a positive impact on sectoral activity, especially for the hotel and restaurant sector (182.1% in 2040). The investment leads to a 2.0% increase in Gross Regional Product in 2040 compared with the baseline. The South Departmentâs exports are 4.7% below baseline in 2040 and imports are 6.1% higher due to the inflow of foreign exchange and the consequent appreciation of the regional real exchange rate, increased demand for most goods and services, and limited regional productive capacity. The rate of unemployment falls, beginning at 26% in 2013 and ending at 23.4% by 2040. The investment helps lift some of the poorest in the Haitiâs South out of poverty, reducing the poverty headcount by 1.6 percentage points. Driving this result is an increase in employment, the average wage and non-labor income. The linked RCGE-MS approach proves to be a powerful tool for assessing how tourism investments affect regional economic activity and revealing the mechanisms through which tourism can contribute to increase employment opportunities and reduce poverty.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS
Development of a Transportation Network Model for Complex Economic and Infrastructure Simulations
The intent of this effort is to add a transport network to an agent-based economic simulation model, thereby increasing the fidelity of the economic results reported. The majority of existing agent-based work regarding transportation infrastructures deals with traffic management and urban planning. However, little work has been done in modeling the transport system as a basic infrastructure dependency for an agent-based representation of the economy. In an agent-based modeling environment the transportation component derives its demand from the activities of the agents as they buy and sell goods which require transportation services. The Network Shipper agent was added to allow transportation based on the existing U.S. interstate highway system. The agent determines the shortest path between a buyer and seller and estimates a time of arrival. To represent the dynamic nature of a highway system capacity and speed constraints are imposed on the network.
The transportation network was then tested using data for the US milk supply chain. The strongest result of this work is the demonstration that inventory levels in a supply chain must buffer the delivery time uncertainty created when rigorous pursuit of minimum cost supply creates chum in the set of preferred suppliers for a firm. The current geographic distribution of supply and demand, along with variations in the effective time-dependent throughput capacity of the transportation network across the country, creates differential regional sensitivities. In particular, the North Atlantic region is most susceptible to this condition, and as a consequence experiences almost twice the price fluctuation of the South Atlantic region for cheese, despite having half the average supply distance of the south
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EU POLICIES â CHALLENGES FOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
This paper gives an overview on current and prospective modelling challenges for agricultural partial equilibrium (PE) models focussing on EU policies. Starting from a certain policy context, the paper highlights the current capabilities and limitations of existing PE models and, if available, develops some ideas on future modelling directions to advance the usefulness of quantitative information provided.Policy impact assessment, agricultural partial equilibrium models, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
Definition of the CAPRI Core Modelling System and Interfaces with other Components of SEAMLESS-IF
Environmental Economics and Policy,
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