34,080 research outputs found
Bayesian Nonstationary Spatial Modeling for Very Large Datasets
With the proliferation of modern high-resolution measuring instruments
mounted on satellites, planes, ground-based vehicles and monitoring stations, a
need has arisen for statistical methods suitable for the analysis of large
spatial datasets observed on large spatial domains. Statistical analyses of
such datasets provide two main challenges: First, traditional
spatial-statistical techniques are often unable to handle large numbers of
observations in a computationally feasible way. Second, for large and
heterogeneous spatial domains, it is often not appropriate to assume that a
process of interest is stationary over the entire domain.
We address the first challenge by using a model combining a low-rank
component, which allows for flexible modeling of medium-to-long-range
dependence via a set of spatial basis functions, with a tapered remainder
component, which allows for modeling of local dependence using a compactly
supported covariance function. Addressing the second challenge, we propose two
extensions to this model that result in increased flexibility: First, the model
is parameterized based on a nonstationary Matern covariance, where the
parameters vary smoothly across space. Second, in our fully Bayesian model, all
components and parameters are considered random, including the number,
locations, and shapes of the basis functions used in the low-rank component.
Using simulated data and a real-world dataset of high-resolution soil
measurements, we show that both extensions can result in substantial
improvements over the current state-of-the-art.Comment: 16 pages, 2 color figure
High-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistics
With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and
user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically
referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial
locations and time points. Over the last decade, hierarchical spatiotemporal
process models have become widely deployed statistical tools for researchers to
better understand the complex nature of spatial and temporal variability.
However, fitting hierarchical spatiotemporal models often involves expensive
matrix computations with complexity increasing in cubic order for the number of
spatial locations and temporal points. This renders such models unfeasible for
large data sets. This article offers a focused review of two methods for
constructing well-defined highly scalable spatiotemporal stochastic processes.
Both these processes can be used as "priors" for spatiotemporal random fields.
The first approach constructs a low-rank process operating on a
lower-dimensional subspace. The second approach constructs a Nearest-Neighbor
Gaussian Process (NNGP) that ensures sparse precision matrices for its finite
realizations. Both processes can be exploited as a scalable prior embedded
within a rich hierarchical modeling framework to deliver full Bayesian
inference. These approaches can be described as model-based solutions for big
spatiotemporal datasets. The models ensure that the algorithmic complexity has
floating point operations (flops), where the number of spatial
locations (per iteration). We compare these methods and provide some insight
into their methodological underpinnings
OBOE: Collaborative Filtering for AutoML Model Selection
Algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning remain two of the most
challenging tasks in machine learning. Automated machine learning (AutoML)
seeks to automate these tasks to enable widespread use of machine learning by
non-experts. This paper introduces OBOE, a collaborative filtering method for
time-constrained model selection and hyperparameter tuning. OBOE forms a matrix
of the cross-validated errors of a large number of supervised learning models
(algorithms together with hyperparameters) on a large number of datasets, and
fits a low rank model to learn the low-dimensional feature vectors for the
models and datasets that best predict the cross-validated errors. To find
promising models for a new dataset, OBOE runs a set of fast but informative
algorithms on the new dataset and uses their cross-validated errors to infer
the feature vector for the new dataset. OBOE can find good models under
constraints on the number of models fit or the total time budget. To this end,
this paper develops a new heuristic for active learning in time-constrained
matrix completion based on optimal experiment design. Our experiments
demonstrate that OBOE delivers state-of-the-art performance faster than
competing approaches on a test bed of supervised learning problems. Moreover,
the success of the bilinear model used by OBOE suggests that AutoML may be
simpler than was previously understood
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