Recreation, tourism and nature in a changing world : proceedings of the fifth international conference on monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas : Wageningen, the Netherlands, May 30-June 3, 2010

Proceedings of the fifth international conference on monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas : Wageningen, the Netherlands, May 30-June 3, 201

A Modelling Framework for Addressing the Synergies between Global Conventions through Land Use Changes: Carbon Sequestration, Biodiversity Conservation, Prevention of Land Degradation and Food Security in Agricultural and Forested Lands in Developing Countries

This paper proposed a methodological framework for the assessment of carbon stocks and the development and identification of land use, land use change and land management scenarios, whereby enhancing carbon sequestration synergistically increases biodiversity, the prevention of land degradation and food security through the increases in crop yields. The framework integrates satellite image interpretation, computer modelling tools (i.e. software customization of off-the-shelf soil organic matter turnover simulation models) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The framework addresses directly and indirectly the cross-cutting ecological concerns foci of major global conventions: climate change, biodiversity, the combat of desertification and food security. Their synergies are targeted by providing procedures for assessing and identifying simultaneously carbon sinks, potential increases in plant diversity, measures to prevent land degradation and enhancements in food security through crop yields, implicit in each land use change and land management scenario. The scenarios aim at providing “win-win” options to decision makers through the framework’s decision support tools. Issues concerning complex model parameterization and spatial representation were tackled through tight coupling soil carbon models to GIS via software customization. Results of applying the framework in the field in two developing countries indicate that reasonably accurate estimates of carbon sequestration can be obtained through modeling; and that alternative best soil organic matter management practices that arrest shifting “slash-and-burn” cultivation and prevent burning and emissions, can be identified. Such options also result in increased crop yields and food security for an average family size in the area, while enhancing biodiversity and preventing land degradation. These options demonstrate that the judicious management of organic matter is central to greenhouse gas mitigation and the attainment of synergistic ecological benefits, which is the concern of global conventions. The framework is to be further developed through successive approximations and refinement in future, extending its applicability to other landscapes.Climate Change, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, Carbon Sequestration, Soil Organic Matter, Modeling, Land-Use Change, Land Management, Ecological Synergies, Agriculture

Measuring Urban Green Space in Australia

The Hort Innovation Green Cities project “Measuring Australia’s Green Space Asset” (MUGS) undertook a global review of urban green space (UGS) measurement research and engaged with Australian stakeholders to gauge current practice. The overall aim of the project was to foster best-practice UGS planning and management by juxtaposing the scientific state of the art with the contextualised needs expressed by potential Australian end users. The synthesis of findings informed a ‘blueprint’ which sketches the contours of a possible nationally consistent UGS decision-support framework. The framework is illustrated with a worked example from Australia (rapid assessment of urban green space assets using satellite imagery)

Modelling the impact of climate change on Tanzanian forests

This research article was published by Wiley Online Library in 2020Aim: Climate change is pressing extra strain on the already degraded forest eco system in Tanzania. However, it is mostly unknown how climate change will affect the distribution of forests in the future. We aimed to model the impacts of climate change on natural forests to help inform national-level conservation and mitigation strategies. Location: Tanzania. Methods: We conducted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to simulate forest habitat suitability using the Tanzanian national forest inventory survey (1,307 oc currences) and environmental data. Changes in forest habitats were simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2055 and 2085. Results: The results indicate that climate change will threaten forest communities, especially fragmented strips of montane forests. Even under optimistic emission scenario, the extent of montane forest is projected to almost halve by 2085, inter secting many biodiversity hotspots across the Eastern Arc Mountains. Similarly, cli mate change is predicted to threaten microhabitat forests (i.e. thickets), with losses exceeding 70% by 2085 (RCP8.5). Other forest habitats are predicted to decrease (lowland forest and woodland) representing essential ecological networks, whereas suitable habitats for carbon-rich mangroves are predicted to expand by more than 40% at both scenarios. Conclusions: Climate change will impact forests by accelerating habitat loss, and fragmentation and the remaining land suitable for forests will also be subject to pres sures associated with rising demand for food and biofuels. These changes are likely to increase the probability of adverse impacts to the country's indigenous flora and fauna. Our findings, therefore, call for a shift in conservation efforts, focusing on (i) the enhanced management of existing protected areas that can absorb the impacts of future climate change, and (ii) expanding conservation efforts into newly suitable regions through effective land use planning and land reclamation, helping to preserve and enhance forest connectivity between fragmented patches

Can remote sensing be used to support sustainable forestry in Malawi?

Sustainable forest management is a key issue in Malawi. Malawi is a relatively small, resource poor, densely populated country, which in some areas is close to exceeding the energy capacity of the environment to support it. Despite the importance of forestry in Malawi, there is a severe lack of knowledge about the current state of Malawi’s forest resources. Remote sensing has the potential to provide current and historical insights into forest cover change. However, Malawi faces a number of key challenges with regards to in-country remote sensing. These include technical capacity for obtaining accurate and consistent forest area and biomass estimates, with errors at acceptable levels, as well as the necessary supporting capacity development for individuals and institutions. This thesis examines how remote sensing can be used to support sustainable forestry in Malawi, by assessing the use of both optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for mapping forest cover, forest cover change and aboveground biomass (AGB). L-band SAR data was used to try and establish a relationship between radar backscatter and biomass, which has been achieved many times in other areas. However, no correlations between any field-based forest metric and backscatter explained enough of the variability in the datasets to be used to develop empirical relationships between the variables. There were also differences between my field measured AGB and AGB values predicted by a published backscatter-biomass relationship for African dry forests. The speckle inherent in SAR imagery, the heterogeneity of Malawi’s dominant miombo savanna, and Malawi’s variable topography are likely to have played a significant role in this. Two different MODIS products were investigated for their potential for mapping forest cover change, with regards to potential REDD+ schemes. As part of this, a published equation was used to calculate the break-even point for REDD+ schemes in Malawi, using estimates of forest area and deforestation for the United Nations Forest Resources Assessment 2010. The results of this equation show that measurement error is the most important factor in determining whether or not Malawi can make REDD+ economically viable, particularly at lower levels of deforestation. While neither of the MODIS products were able to produce a verifiable forest cover change map, they do confirm that Malawi is experiencing some level of forest loss, and help to narrow down the range of possible forest loss rates Malawi is experiencing to between 1-3% net forest loss per year. Finally, this thesis examines global trends in the engagement of developing country researchers with global academic remote sensing research, to investigate differences in in-country capacity for monitoring forests using remote sensing. The results of this found that while a significant proportion of Earth observation research (44%) has developing countries as their object of research, less than 3% of publications have authors working, or affiliated to, a developing country (excluding China, India and Brazil, which are not only countries in transition, but have well established EO capacity). These patterns appear consistent over the past 20 years, despite the increasing awareness of the importance of capacity development over this period. Despite inconclusive results from the approaches examined here, remote sensing can play a role in improving understanding about the dynamics of Malawi’s forest resources. There is a need for nationwide accurate, validated forest maps that can be repeated at least on a yearly basis, and remote sensing could produced these without the resources needed to conduct full national ground inventories each year. If remote sensing is to be useful as a forest mapping tool in Malawi, it needs to provide consistent, verifiable and updatable estimates of forest cover and biomass change. This ideally needs to be achieved using free or low cost data, and by using open source or open access software, as this will better enable incountry researchers to conduct on-going forest mapping activities

Estimating potential future (2030 and 2040) land use in the Bonsa catchment, Ghana, West Africa

This study combined logistic regression, Markov chain and the Dyna-CLUE models to simulate land use patterns in the Bonsa catchment of Ghana, West Africa. Historical model validation produced Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) statistics above 0.69; indicating a significant relationship between the driving factors and the land cover types, and overall accuracy of 71% as well as a Kappa statistic of 55%, indicating a moderate agreement between observed and simulated land uses. The statistics of the historical model were used to simulate three plausible future land use scenarios. The historical simulation revealed that increases in population density, proximity to roads and expansion of mines were the major drivers that significantly increased the probability of settlement expansion and deforestation. Simulations of future land use showed that settlement expansion and deforestation may increase by similar margins for all scenarios, but the increase in secondary forests may be higher for the economic growth and reforestation (EGR) scenario, compared to the economic growth (EG) and the business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. The mining areas may double in the future for all the scenarios, but shrubs/farms may increase in the BAU scenario, but reduce marginally in the EG and the EGR scenarios. The results of this study can be used to support land use planning and evaluation of the impacts of different future development pathways.Keywords: Bonsa catchment, deforestation, driving factors, Dyna-CLUE, land use, logistic regression, West Afric

The Leadbeater's Possum Review

This document reviews current science on Leadbeater’s Possum and its montane ash forest habitat in the Central Highlands of Victoria. The report comprises seven chapters on key topics related to the conservation and current management of Leadbeater’s Possum and the forest habitats on which the species depends. Chapter 1 gives a brief history of major events that effect Leadbeater’s Possum and its forest habitat in the Central Highlands of Victoria. Chapter 2 explores work on hollow-bearing trees, as they are the most critical habitat element that will dictate the species’ survival. Chapter 3 reviews some of the recent policies for the management of the species, while Chapters 4 and 5 provide a summary of some of the statistics and other information relating to Leadbeater’s Possum and the forests in which it is found. Chapter 6 explores information about and insights into the Mountain Ash ecosystem and why it is currently classified as Critically Endangered under IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria. Chapter 7 reviews many relevant government documents. Chapter 8 contains some general conclusions about the management of Leadbeater’s Possum and the forests in which it occurs. Throughout this report, unless otherwise specified, reference to ANU means the ANU scientists who have conducted research in the Victorian Central Highlands ecosystem over the past 34+ years, or the scientific work that they have produced. We examine the threats to Leadbeater’s Possum as well as critically appraise the effectiveness of management actions and protective measures designed to conserve the species. We examine the Critically Endangered listing of both Leadbeater’s Possum and the Mountain Ash ecosystem in which it lives, and why both are in a parlous state. The review looks back over the history of decisions and other factors that have led us to the current situation, and explores possible futures based on decisions currently being made. Our review relies heavily on the substantial scientific literature on Leadbeater’s Possum and Mountain Ash forest. Long term data and scientifically robust research will play an important role in rigorously assessing many current claims about the status of populations of Leadbeater’s Possum and its habitat and providing clarity on information to guide enhanced decision making. The area of remaining 1939 age forest in the Central Highlands is reaching low levels, and important decisions need to be made about how the forests of this age are managed. The next 5-10 years will be critical for how the Central Highlands ash forests and the species that inhabit them persist (or otherwise) over the next century

Remote Sensing & GIS for Land Cover/ Land Use Change Detection and Analysis in the Semi-Natural Ecosystems and Agriculture Landscapes of the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley

Technical complexities and the high cost of satellite images have hindered the adoption of remote sensing technology and tools for nature conservation works in Ethiopia as in many developing countries. The terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Abijjata Shala Lakes National Park (ASLNP) and the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) around the park are considered to be one of the most important home ranges for birds. However, little is known about the effect of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics, due to lack of technical know how and logistical problems. However, it has been shown in this study that sophisticated image management works are not always relevant. Instead a simple method of utilizing the thermal band has been demonstrated. A new approach of long-term dynamics analysis method has also been suggested. A successful classification of images was achieved after such simple enhancement tests. It has been discovered that, there were more active LULC change processes in the area in the first study period (1973 to 1986) than during the second study period (1986-2000). In the first period nearly half of the landscape underwent land cover change processes with more than 26% of the entire landscape experiencing forest or land degradation. In the second period the extent of the change process was limited to only 1/3 of the total area with a smaller amount of degradation processes than before. During the entire study period, agriculture was responsible for the loss of more than 4/5 of the total terrestrial productive ecosystem. More than 37.6% of the total park area has been experiencing this loss for the past 3 decades. Only 1/5 of this area has a chance to revive, the remaining has undergone a permanent degradation. Lake Abijjata lost half of its size during the past 30 years. In the Zeway-Awassa basin 750 km², 2428km² and 3575km² of terrestrial lands and water bodies are within a distance of 10km, 20km and 30km from IBAs respectively. There are ecologically important areas where two or more IBAs overlap. In areas where more than two to five IBAs overlap, up to 85km² of areas have been recently degraded. High livestock density is one of the reasons for degradation. Using a monthly MODIS data from 2000-2005 and a series of interpolation techniques, the productivity of the area as well as the standing biomass were estimated. Moreover, a new method of spatially accurate livestock density assessment was developed in this study. Only 0.3% of the park area is found to be suitable for productive livestock development but nearly all inhabitants think the area is suitable. Feed availability in ASLNP is scarce even during rainy seasons. Especially the open woodlands are subject to overgrazing. Such shortage forces the inhabitants to cut trees for charcoal making to buy animal feed and non-food consumables. While more than 95% of the inhabitants in the park expanded their agriculture lands, only 13.3% of the farmers managed to produce cereals for market. The application of low cost remote sensing and GIS methods provided ample information that enables to conclude that low productivity and household food insecurity are the main driving forces behind land cover changes that are negatively affecting the natural and semi-natural ecosystems in the central and southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia. The restoration of natural ecosystems or conservation of biodiversity can be achieved only if those driving forces are tackled sustainably