Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional finescale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD + could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55$27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69$380–416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD+ competitiveness in tropical floodplain landscapes; and, providing a robust approach for identifying and targeting limited REDD+ funds

Sustainability Assessment of Malaysian Palm Oil Industry

The Palm Oil Sustainability Assessment framework has been developed to improve sustainability performance of Malaysian palm oil production. It was applied to a crude palm oil supply chain to identify sustainability improvement strategies. A biogas plant has been incorporated into the existing supply chain to improve the sustainability performance of crude palm oil production. This framework will assist stakeholders in the supply chain to select appropriate strategies for sustainable palm oil production

Food Price Policy in Indonesia

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Identifying Where REDD plus Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional fine-scale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD+ could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO_{2} e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55$27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO_{2}e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69$380–416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD+ competitiveness in tropical floodplain landscapes; and, providing a robust approach for identifying and targeting limited REDD+ funds

A decision support system for sustainable development of biodiesel industry

Energy plays a crucial role in modern life. The recent crises in the world oil market, rapid depletion of crude oil reserves along with growing concerns about emission of greenhouse gas have drawn attention to biofuels sources. Despite the many positive characteristics of biofuels, they cause a variety of environmental, economical, and social challenges that are not known to decision-makers by conventional evaluation tools such as Environmental Impact Assessment. This study designed and developed a specific Decision Support System (DSS) to analyze the sustainability of alternative biodiesel production in Malaysia by integrating and using Eco-indicator 99 method as a damage oriented Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), spatial analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). DSS was carried out to estimate four sustainability damage categories covering human health, ecosystem quality, resources depletion and socio-economic aspects to help decision makers in achieving a holistic insight into the entire system. LCA results show that fossil fuels depletion impact is the highest contributor to the environmental burdens of palm oil and jatropha biodiesel production, by 1.5E3 MJ and 1.99E3 MJ surplus respectively. This is followed by the respiratory inorganics impact with 1.32 E-3 and 3.28 E-4 Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) for palm oil and jatropha biodiesel productions respectively. LCA as environmental analysis tool and Geographical Information System as spatial analysis tool were combined to provide an integrated methodology that is able to determine land use change impacts. Land use change analysis showed that approximately 42.2% of expansion during the period was the result of the conversion of forest, followed by agroforest and plantations (34.8%). The study used AHP to assign criteria weights from a Malaysian perspective. According to AHP analysis, the importance weights of both human health (40.9%) and ecosystem quality (32.2%) damages are higher than both resources depletion (16.5%) and socio-economic (10.4%) damages. Combining the effects on all impact categories as a single score supports the notion that the palm oil biodiesel production with 30.5 Eco-indicator point (Pt) generates 9.7% higher negative impacts on sustainability than jatropha biodiesel production which means jatropha development is more consistent with sustainability criteria and furthermore it could be beneficial in Clean Development Mechanism projects

Impact of rubber tree dominated land-use on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Greater Mekong Subregion

Die vorliegende Dissertation analysiert den Einfluss von steigendem Kautschukanbau (Hevea brasiliensis) hinsichtlich Biodiversität und Ökosystemdienstleistungen (ÖSD) in der Greater Mekong Subregion. Kautschukplantagen beeinflussen die Bereitstellung verschiedener Ökosystemdienstleistungen wie Kohlenstoffspeicherung, Wasserverfügbarkeit und qualität und beeinträchtigt die Biodiversität. Um diese Einflüsse zu untersuchen war die erste Aufgabe die Erstellung eines Überblicks über Veröffentlichungen bezüglich ÖSD und Biodiversität in Kautschuk-Anbaugebieten. Die Literaturübersicht zeigte, dass die Mehrzahl der Publikationen nur eine einzige oder sehr wenige ÖSD behandelt. Dies entspricht nicht den Anforderungen von Entscheidungsträgern, die für fundierte Entscheidungen hinsichtlich Landnutzungsplanung oder die Entwicklung von Zahlungen für ÖSD ein holistisches Bild brauchen, das mehrere ÖSD simultan betrachtet. Um einen Beitrag zu einer holistischeren Sichtweise zu leisten, war die zweite Aufgabe die Analyse des Einflusses von Kautschuk auf die ÖSD Kohlenstoffspeicherung, Bodenerosion, Wasserverfügbarkeit und -qualität, sowie Einkommen und Existenzsicherung. Obwohl es bezüglich der Kohlenstoffbindung in verschiedenen Landnutzungsformen noch große Unsicherheiten gibt, verdichten sich die Hinweise darauf, dass in Kautschukplantagen weniger Kohlenstoff gespeichert ist, als in natürlichen Wäldern. Das Risiko von Erodibilität von Böden in Kautschukanlagen ist im Vergleich zu natürlichen Wäldern höher. Der lokale und regionale Wasserkreislauf wird von Kautschukplantagen ebenfalls beeinflusst. Die Wasserqualität für Menschen und wasserlebende Organismen wird ebenfalls beeinträchtigt. Zweifelsfrei hat die Einführung von Kautschuk eine signifikante Steigerung des Farmeinkommens bewirkt. Allerdings legen sich die Bauern mit der Kautschukproduktion auf Jahrzehnte fest und sind somit abhängig von einer einzelnen Kultur. Weitere ökologische Gefahren bestehen durch Pflanzenkrankheiten und schädlinge, ungünstige Witterung oder Klimaveränderung. Die Auswertung der Studien zeigte deutlich, dass der zunehmende Kautschukanbau in der GMS von verschiedenen Problemen und Bedrohungen für die Bauern und die Umwelt begleitet wird. Die Entwicklung von nachhaltigen Landnutzungskonzepten ist daher unabdingbar. Aufgrund der beschriebenen Ergebnisse basieren Vorschläge für eine nachhaltigere Landnutzung auf Diversifizierung der Plantagen und die Wiederaufforstungen von Wäldern, beides erfordert aber ökonomische Anreize für die Bauern. Ein weiterer Teil der Dissertation behandelt die Entwicklung eines Biodiversitäts-Indikators, der in bestehenden Biodiversitätsmodellen verwendet werden kann. Unser Datensatz umfasste Flora, Vertebraten und Invertebraten. Der resultierende Indikator wurde als Eingabe in ein bestehendes Modell zur Bewertung von ÖSD verwendet. Abschließend wurde eine Landnutzungskarte aus dem Jahr 2007 mit zwei Szenarien verglichen. Um ein differenzierteres Bild zu erhalten wurden zusätzlich Untergruppen analysiert. Die erste Untergruppe Arten für den menschlichen Gebrauch beinhaltete nur die Arten, die der Mensch direkt nutzt (Wildbienen für die Honigproduktion und Pflanzen für Traditionelle Chinesische Medizin). Die zweite Unter-gruppe Rote Liste Arten, bestehend aus Pflanzen und Säuger die auf der roten Liste verzeichnet sind, wurde getrennt untersucht, um Naturschutzaspekte mit einzubeziehen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass es bei einer Beschränkung auf die Arten für den menschlichen Gebrauch weniger Unterschiede zwischen den Szenarien gibt, da die Medizinalpflanzen auch in Kautschukplantagen vorkommen, wenn auch mit anderen Arten (Generalisten und Ruderalpflanzen). Dies führt zu einer wichtigen Schlussfolgerung: Allein die Entscheidung Was untersucht wird ist nicht ausreichend (Biodiversität), sondern auch das Wie (Gruppierung von verschiedenen Artgruppen) ist wichtig, da es erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Ergebnisse hat. In einem letzten Aspekt wurde die Übertragbarkeit der Projektergebnisse auf andere Regionen der Welt untersucht, um die Relevanz des Kautschukanbaus auch für Gebiete außerhalb des eigentlichen Untersuchungsgebietes zu ermitteln. Dafür wurde das System der Land-Archetypen benutzt, das eine große Auswahl von Landnutzungsintensitäten verwendet und gleichzeitig ökologische und sozio-ökonomische Gegebenheiten mit einbezieht. In einem ersten Schritt wurde der Projekt-Archetyp definiert, basierend auf der Zusammenführung von globalen Indikatoren mit deren Hilfe Landnutzung und Landeigenschaften beschrieben werden können. Für das Verbundprojekt Sustainable Rubber Cultivation in the Mekong Region wichen nur wenige der 32 untersuchten globalen Indikatoren von den realen lokalen Werten ab. Das Übertragbarkeitspotenzial für die GMS war relativ hoch und unterstützt damit die Wichtigkeit der Projektergebnisse für diese große Region.The present dissertation analyzes the impact of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) dominated land-use on biodiversity and ecosystem services (ESS) in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Although originating from South-America natural rubber is mainly cultivated in South-East Asia. This expansion of rubber plantations affects different ESS such as carbon storage, availability and quality of water and threatens biodiversity in this highly biodiverse region. In order to analyze these impacts the first task was to give a comprehensive overview about publications concerning ESS and biodiversity in rubber cultivation systems. A thorough literature review showed that the majority of publications concentrated on single or few ESS, which does not match the demands of decision-makers. In order to make sound decisions for land-use planning or developing Payments for Ecosystem Services Schemes a holistic view including multiple services. In order to fill this knowledge gap, the second task was to analyze the impacts of rubber on the ESS carbon storage, soil erosion, water availability and water quality and economically and socially related ESS, such as income and livelihood security. Although there are still great uncertainties about carbon storage in different land-use systems there are hints that the carbon storage in rubber plantations is lower than in natural forests. Concerning erodibility, rubber plantations increase the soil erosion risk compared to natural forests. Rubber cultivation also affects the local and regional water balance. Since rubber production in monocultures requires the use of huge amounts of pesticides and chemical fertilizers which enter the aquatic system by rainfall-induced run-off, water quality for humans and aquatic organisms is as well threatened. Undoubtedly, from an economic point of view the introduction of rubber resulted in significant increases in household income and is hence a possibility to move households and communities out of poverty. However, by deciding to grow rubber, farmers are committing themselves for decades to come and are thus dependent on a single product, which exposes them to further risks. In addition, there are ecological hazards due to crop diseases, pests, unfavorable weather conditions or changes in climate. The review of studies clearly indicates that increasing rubber cultivation in the GMS is accompanied by various problems and threats to farmers and the environment. Therefore, the development of more sustainable land-use concepts is required. Concordantly, suggestions for land-use change are based on system diversification and forest restoration, which both require economic incentives for farmers. The next part of this dissertation deals with the development of a biodiversity indicator (based on selected flora and fauna species) that can be included in existing biodiversity models to show the impact that different rubber cultivation scenarios will have on various species groups. A combination of multi-species data supplemented with literature data was used and included flora, vertebrates and invertebrates. The resulting indicator was used as input into an established ESS assessment framework. Finally, a current land-use map from 2007 was compared with two scenarios. In order to get a more detailed picture, sub-groups of biodiversity were analyzed as well. First, a sub-group of human use species category was assessed which included only species which are directly used by humans. Second, the sub-group red list species, consisting of red list plants and mammals was analyzed separately to include the conservational aspect. The results showed that when considering the indices from the category human use species there is less of an impact between the scenarios, because medicinal plants for example are still commonly distributed within rubber plantations, albeit with different species (generalists, ruderal flora). This leads to an important conclusion: not only the decision on what is analyzed (biodiversity), but also how it is analyzed (groups of different species) considerably influences the results. To complete this dissertation the transferability of this place-based research to other regions of the world was tested to assess the relevance beyond the study area. To do this the system of land archetypes was used, which utilizes a wide range of land-use intensity metrics and incorporates simultaneously environmental and socio-economic conditions. In a first step, the project archetype was defined, based on a synthesis of global land system indicators. For the project Sustainable Rubber Cultivation in the Mekong Region, only few of the 32 global indicators did not closely match the local reality. The transferability potential for the GMS was quite high and therefore emphasizes the importance of the project results for this huge region

FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING USING GIS AND FUZZY AHP

Kelantan Darul Naim, one of Malaysia's northeast corner states, experiences recurrent flood hazards. Floods are natural calamities that strike Malaysia and the rest of the world every year. It results in infrastructural damage as well as fatalities. Flood susceptibility mapping is one of the early warning systems that can monitor the flood level and alert people to the catastrophe

An investigation and optimisation of electrical power generation scenarios for a sustainable Malaysia

PhD ThesisThe Malaysian Government has been introducing fuel diversification policies over the past decade by considering other sources of fuel such as alternative and renewable energy into the electricity mix as a measure to lengthen the oil and gas reserves against premature depletion. Since electricity consumption forms about a fifth of the total energy consumption, and directly impacts the country’s economy and people’s well-being, it is necessary to pay emphasis on Malaysia’s intermediate to long-term power sector planning by identifying sustainable options which will enhance Malaysia’s energy security and simultaneously mitigate climate change in line with the commitments set in the Paris Agreement. This study attempts to provide a comprehensive foresight analysis in relation to the electricity generation portfolios by exploring different energy resources and technologies to meet the electricity demand through 2015 to 2050 by a modelling approach known as Malaysia TIMES Electricity Model (MYTEM). The multiple scenarios which collectively forms MYTEM were developed by deploying ‘The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System’ or in brief known as the TIMES model generator. The examined scenarios are business as usual (BAU), the two nuclear scenarios where one of them simulates the inclusion of the 2.0 GW nuclear power (NUC2) and the other demonstrates the nuclear expansion plan to reach cumulative nuclear power to 4.0 GW (NUC4), as well as the four renewable plus storage scenarios which were specified based on the application of 6 and 7 types of renewable technologies plus the integration of 7 and 14 days storage generation capacity respectively (RNW6S7, RNW6S14, RNW7S7, and RNW7S14). The results indicated that by 2050, the electricity demand for Malaysia is expected to grow to 892.30 PJ from base year levels of 475.92 PJ. One of the significant findings from the renewable energy assessment revealed that based on the International Electro-technical Commission (IEC) standards, class II offshore wind turbines have great potential for grid-connected utility-scale power generation in the South China Sea since the wind speed falls within the class II velocity range from 7.5 ms-1 to 8.5 ms-1 at altitudes between 50 to 200 m. Apart from this, Malaysia has great potential to gain electricity yield from other renewable resources such as hydro, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biogas. Out of all the MYTEM scenarios, the RNW7S14 scenario would be the most feasible model for implementation from an investment perspective and the most effective model for CO2 abatement, followed by RNW7S7, RNW6S14, and RNW6S7. The intermittency issue caused by renewables can be resolved with the integration of pumped hydro storage (PHS) system into the grid. ii To conclude, MYTEM substantiated that Malaysia does not need to embrace nuclear power as other renewable-based technologies such as hydropower could generate the equivalent baseload and peak load electricity, while solar photovoltaics combined with PHS system could cater to the rise in electricity demand which occurs in the afternoon due to the increase in air-condition usage and industrial sector demand. Furthermore, MYTEM demonstrated that by 2050, 98.37% of the electricity generation portfolio could be sourced from renewable energy which simultaneously enhances Malaysia’s energy security and decarbonises the environment. Ultimately, this study contributed to knowledge by providing a novel consolidated research methodological framework in modelling the reference energy system specially customised for electrical power that could be applied to other long term energy resource optimisation studies at country levelPublic Service Department (JPA) of Malaysia and to all Malaysians who funded my doctoral studies