Approximate reasoning using terminological models

Term Subsumption Systems (TSS) form a knowledge-representation scheme in AI that can express the defining characteristics of concepts through a formal language that has a well-defined semantics and incorporates a reasoning mechanism that can deduce whether one concept subsumes another. However, TSS's have very limited ability to deal with the issue of uncertainty in knowledge bases. The objective of this research is to address issues in combining approximate reasoning with term subsumption systems. To do this, we have extended an existing AI architecture (CLASP) that is built on the top of a term subsumption system (LOOM). First, the assertional component of LOOM has been extended for asserting and representing uncertain propositions. Second, we have extended the pattern matcher of CLASP for plausible rule-based inferences. Third, an approximate reasoning model has been added to facilitate various kinds of approximate reasoning. And finally, the issue of inconsistency in truth values due to inheritance is addressed using justification of those values. This architecture enhances the reasoning capabilities of expert systems by providing support for reasoning under uncertainty using knowledge captured in TSS. Also, as definitional knowledge is explicit and separate from heuristic knowledge for plausible inferences, the maintainability of expert systems could be improved

Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as ‘deterministic components’ or ‘trends’ even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further compromising the attempt to draw conclusions about trends spanning the period of records. Moreover, even though adjusting procedures accounting for correlation have been developed, some of them are insufficient or are applied only to some tests, while some others are theoretically flawed but still widely applied. In particular, using 250 unimpacted stream flow time series across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we show that the test results can dramatically change if the sequences of annual values are reproduced starting from daily stream flow records, whose larger sizes enable a more reliable assessment of the correlation structures

A review of clinical decision-making: Models and current research

Aims and objectives: The aim of this paper was to review the current literature with respect to clinical decision-making models and the educational application of models to clinical practice. This was achieved by exploring the function and related research of the three available models of clinical decision making: information processing model, the intuitive-humanist model and the clinical decision making model. Background: Clinical decision-making is a unique process that involves the interplay between knowledge of pre-existing pathological conditions, explicit patient information, nursing care and experiential learning. Historically, two models of clinical decision making are recognised from the literature; the information processing model and the intuitive-humanist model. The usefulness and application of both models has been examined in relation the provision of nursing care and care related outcomes. More recently a third model of clinical decision making has been proposed. This new multidimensional model contains elements of the information processing model but also examines patient specific elements that are necessary for cue and pattern recognition. Design: Literature review Methods: Evaluation of the literature generated from MEDLINE, CINAHL, OVID, PUBMED and EBESCO systems and the Internet from 1980 – November 2005

Using fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems

Outlined here is a novel hybrid architecture that uses fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems. The author's approach offers important synergistic benefits to neural nets, approximate reasoning, and symbolic processing. Fuzzy inference rules extend symbolic systems with approximate reasoning capabilities, which are used for integrating and interpreting the outputs of neural networks. The symbolic system captures meta-level information about neural networks and defines its interaction with neural networks through a set of control tasks. Fuzzy action rules provide a robust mechanism for recognizing the situations in which neural networks require certain control actions. The neural nets, on the other hand, offer flexible classification and adaptive learning capabilities, which are crucial for dynamic and noisy environments. By combining neural nets and symbolic systems at their system levels through the use of fuzzy logic, the author's approach alleviates current difficulties in reconciling differences between low-level data processing mechanisms of neural nets and artificial intelligence systems