Run-time risk management in adaptive ICT systems

We will present results of the SERSCIS project related to risk management and mitigation strategies in adaptive multi-stakeholder ICT systems. The SERSCIS approach involves using semantic threat models to support automated design-time threat identification and mitigation analysis. The focus of this paper is the use of these models at run-time for automated threat detection and diagnosis. This is based on a combination of semantic reasoning and Bayesian inference applied to run-time system monitoring data. The resulting dynamic risk management approach is compared to a conventional ISO 27000 type approach, and validation test results presented from an Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) scenario involving data exchange between multiple airport service providers

Banking the unbanked: the Mzansi intervention in South Africa:

Purpose This paper aims to understand household’s latent behaviour decision making in accessing financial services. In this analysis we look at the determinants of the choice of the pre-entry Mzansi account by consumers in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach We use 102 variables, grouped in the following categories: basic literacy, understanding financial terms, targets for financial advice, desired financial education and financial perception. Employing a computationally efficient variable selection algorithm we study which variables can satisfactorily explain the choice of a Mzansi account. Findings The Mzansi intervention is appealing to individuals with basic but insufficient financial education. Aspirations seem to be very influential in revealing the choice of financial services and to this end Mzansi is perceived as a pre-entry account not meeting the aspirations of individuals aiming to climb up the financial services ladder. We find that Mzansi holders view the account mainly as a vehicle for receiving payments, but on the other hand are debt-averse and inclined to save. Hence although there is at present no concrete evidence that the Mzansi intervention increases access to finance via diversification (i.e. by recruiting customers into higher level accounts and services) our analysis shows that this is very likely to be the case. Originality/value The issue of demand side constraints on access to finance have been largely ignored in the theoretical and empirical literature. This paper undertakes some preliminary steps in addressing this gap

Modelling the feedback effects of reconfiguring health services

The shift in the balance of health care, bringing services ‘closer to home’, is a well-established trend, which has been motivated by the desire to improve the provision of services. However, these efforts may be undermined by the improvements in access stimulating demand. Existing analyses of this trend have been limited to isolated parts of the system with calls to control demand with stricter clinical guidelines or to meet demand with capacity increases. By failing to appreciate the underlying feedback mechanisms, these interventions may only have a limited effect. We demonstrate the contribution offered by system dynamics modelling by presenting a study of two cases of the shift in cardiac catheterization services in the UK. We hypothesize the effects of the shifts in services and produce model output that is not inconsistent with real world data. Our model encompasses several mechanisms by which demand is stimulated. We use the model to clarify the roles for stricter clinical guidelines and capacity increases, and to demonstrate the potential benefits of changing the goals that drive activity

Cognition in investigation: The metaphor of detectives' thinking styles and the research process

The literature on research in organizational theory and the social sciences at large is primarily focused on the formal dimensions of the research process and largely ignores the cognitive activities involved in theorizing. We use Dean's (2000) hierarchical typology of the thinking processes of police detectives as an analogical framework to reflect on the cognitive processes of organizational researchers. Graphical depictions of the investigative thinking styles of method, challenge, skill, and risk are presented in a 3-D model. From this we construct a model for the research process that incorporates both the formal dimension related to the management of the research project and the dimension of the cognitive modes activated. We draw implications for theorizing, the conduct of research projects, researchers' self-reflexivity, and the training of research students

Efficient Prediction Designs for Random Fields

For estimation and predictions of random fields it is increasingly acknowledged that the kriging variance may be a poor representative of true uncertainty. Experimental designs based on more elaborate criteria that are appropriate for empirical kriging are then often non-space-filling and very costly to determine. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using a compound criterion inspired by an equivalence theorem type relation to build designs quasi-optimal for the empirical kriging variance, when space-filling designs become unsuitable. Two algorithms are proposed, one relying on stochastic optimization to explicitly identify the Pareto front, while the second uses the surrogate criteria as local heuristic to chose the points at which the (costly) true Empirical Kriging variance is effectively computed. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms presented on both a simple simulated example and a real oceanographic dataset

Criteria for the diploma qualifications in science at advanced level: principal learning

"The purpose of this document is to record a full set of criteria for level 3 principal learning qualifications for the Advanced Diploma in science. It also sets out the overall aims of the Diplomas in science." - purpose

How Can Geography and Mobile Phones Contribute to Psychotherapy?

Interdisciplinary relationships between Geography and Psychotherapy are an opportunity for innovation. Indeed, scientific works found on bibliographic databases and concerning this theme are scarce. Geographical sub-fields, such as the Geography of Emotions or Psychoanalytical Geography have started to emerge, theorizing about and interpreting feelings, emotions, moods, sufferings, of the chronically ill or diversified social groups and sites. But a less theoretical and more practical approach, in the sense of proposing, predicting and intervening, is lacking; as well as research into the possibilities offered by communication technologies and mobile phones. In the present work, we present the results of a review of the most relevant scientific works published internationally; we reflect on the contributions of Geography and mobile phones to psychosocial therapies and define the orientation and questions that should be posed in future research, from the point of view of geography and regarding psychotherapy. We conclude that the production of georeferenced data via mobile phones concerning the daily lives of people opens great possibilities for cognitive behavioural therapy and mental health. They allow for the development of personalized mood maps that locate the places where a person experiences greater or lesser stress on a daily basis; they allow for a cartography of emotions, a cognitive cartography of the places we access physically or through the Internet, of our feelings and psychosocial experiences. They open the door to the possibility of offering personalized psychotherapy treatments focusing on the ecological-environmental analysis of the places frequented by the person on a daily basis