LOGIC-BASED FORMULA MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN AN ACTUARIAL CONSULTING SYSTEM

In many decision support systems, multiple decision methods and models must be combined for solving a complex problem. Expertise is required for selecting, adapting and coordinating appropriate models. This paper describes the design and implementation of a knowledge-based model management system called the Actuarial Consulting System (ACS). The ACS supports actuaries in making pricing decisions in the domain of life insurance. Actuarial knowledge is organized using a graph formalism called Formula Derivation Network (FDN), represented in Prolog as a hierarchy of predicates. On the user level, a Problem Analyzer converts a problem specification by the user into a search problem on the stored collection of FDNs. Using different search strategies, including human expert rules, the Surface Planner generates an efficient solution strategy (sequence of models). At the lowest level, a Plan Executor retrieves or requests model data and issues appropriate function calls to a subroutine library.Information Systems Working Papers Serie

LOGIC-BASED FORMULA MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN AN ACTUARIAL CONSULTING SYSTEM

In many decision support systems, multiple decision methods and models must be combined for solving a complex problem. Expertise is required for selecting, adapting and coordinating appropriate models. This paper describes the design and implementation of a knowledge-based model management system called the Actuarial Consulting System (ACS). The ACS supports actuaries in making pricing decisions in the domain of life insurance. Actuarial knowledge is organized using a graph formalism called Formula Derivation Network (FDN), represented in Prolog as a hierarchy of predicates. On the user level, a Problem Analyzer converts a problem specification by the user into a search problem on the stored collection of FDNs. Using different search strategies, including human expert rules, the Surface Planner generates an efficient solution strategy (sequence of models). At the lowest level, a Plan Executor retrieves or requests model data and issues appropriate function calls to a subroutine library.Information Systems Working Papers Serie

Management: A continuing bibliography with indexes

This bibliography lists 551 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into NASA scientific and technical information system in 1980

Impact of Query Specification Mode and Problem Complexity on Query Specification Productivity of Novice Users of Database Systems

With the increased demand for the utilization of computerized information systems by business users, the need for investigating the impact of various user interfaces has been well recognized. It is usually assumed that providing the user with assistance in the usage o-f a system would significantly increase the user's productivity. There is, however, a dearth of systematic inquiry into this commonly held notion to verify its validity in a scientific fashion. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of system-provided user assistance and complexity level of the problem on novice users' productivity in specifying database queries. The study is theoretical in the sense that it presents an approach adopted from research in deductive database systems to attack problems concerning user interface design. It is empirical in that it conducts an experiment in a controlled laboratory setting to collect primary data for the testing of a series of hypotheses. The two independent variables are system-provided user assistance and problem complexity, while the dependent variable is the user's query specification productivity. Three measures are used as separate indicators of query specification productivity: number of syntactic errors, number of semantic errors, and time required for completing a query task. Due to the lack of a well-defined metric for user assistance, the study first presents a generic classification scheme for relational query specification. Based on this classification scheme, two quantitative metrics for measuring the amount of user assistance in terms of prompts and defaults were developed. The user assistance is operationally defined with these two metrics. Four findings emerge as significant results of the study. First, user assistance has a significant main effect on all of the three dependent measures at the 1 percent significance level. Second, problem complexity also has a significant impact on the three productivity measures at the 1 percent significance level. Third, the interaction effect of user assistance and problem complexity on the number of semantic errors and the amount of time for completion is significant at the 1 percent level. Fourth, Although this interaction effect on the number of syntactic errors is not significant at the 5 percent level, it is at the 10 percent level. More research is needed to permit a thorough understanding of the issue of user interface design. A list of topics is suggested for future research to confirm or to modify the findings of this study

A rule-based method for scalable and traceable evaluation of system architectures

Despite the development of a variety of decision-aid tools for assessing the value of a conceptual design, humans continue to play a dominant role in this process. Researchers have identified two major challenges to automation, namely the subjectivity of value and the existence of multiple and conflicting customer needs. A third challenge is however arising as the amount of data (e.g., expert judgment, requirements, and engineering models) required to assess value increases. This brings two challenges. First, it becomes harder to modify existing knowledge or add new knowledge into the knowledge base. Second, it becomes harder to trace the results provided by the tool back to the design variables and model parameters. Current tools lack the scalability and traceability required to tackle these knowledge-intensive design evaluation problems. This work proposes a traceable and scalable rule-based architecture evaluation tool called VASSAR that is especially tailored to tackle knowledge-intensive problems that can be formulated as configuration design problems, which is demonstrated using the conceptual design task for a laptop. The methodology has three main steps. First, facts containing the capabilities and performance of different architectures are computed using rules containing physical and logical models. Second, capabilities are compared with requirements to assess satisfaction of each requirement. Third, requirement satisfaction is aggregated to yield a manageable number of metrics. An explanation facility keeps track of the value chain all along this process. This paper describes the methodology in detail and discusses in particular different implementations of preference functions as logical rules. A full-scale example around the design of Earth observing satellites is presented

Review of management information systems research: A management support emphasis

This article organizes, describes, and evaluates MIS research from 1981 through 1985 in order to provide an understanding of what constitutes MIS research and to indicate potentially rich areas for future research. The review emphasizes information systems research in support of management decision making as opposed, for example, to research into the management of information resources or the development of strategic information systems.Preliminary work includes developing a definition of MIS, adopting an organizing framework, and choosing journals for review. Once this foundation is laid, MIS research content and methodology up to 1980 are summarized based upon the findings of the First International Conference on Information Systems. Finally, MIS research from 1981 to 1985 is described and evaluated in terms of content and methodology.It was found that more progress has been made in identifying appropriate research questions than in answering those questions. Significant progress in generating answers may be made in the future due to a healthy shift in the choice of methodologies (shift from more speculative-conceptual to more theory-based/theory-generating empirical). However, progress toward developing a global notion (theory) of MIS seems relatively slow. This lack of progress seems to be a symptom of: - Lack of progress in defining the product of MIS (information). - Too much research focus upon what relationships exist instead of focusing upon why relationships exist. - Underlying problems in the natural sciences paradigm currently associated with MIS research.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27465/1/0000506.pd

Prescriptive analytics na gestão de listas de espera hospitalares

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de InformaçãoA gestão de listas de espera em meio hospitalar é um tema de particular relevância dada a sua implicação direta na qualidade dos serviços de saúde prestados aos pacientes, na boa gestão dos recursos humanos, materiais e financeiros e, por último, na regulamentação emanada pelo Ministério da Saúde. Esta regulamentação estipula um tempo máximo de resposta garantido para a execução de Meios Complementares de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica (MCDT), cirurgias e consultas externas. Esta dissertação, intitulada “Prescriptive Analytics na Gestão de Listas de Espera Hospitalares” tem como principal objetivo otimizar a decisão na área da gestão das listas de espera para MCDT. Este objetivo será alcançado através do desenvolvimento de modelos aptos para melhorar os agendamentos, de modo a reduzir os tempos das listas de espera e o desperdício de recursos. Estes modelos têm ainda de ser capazes de integrar um sistema de Adaptive Business Inteligence. É evidente a importância da contribuição que este projeto poderá trazer para este campo de atuação, uma vez que pode servir de auxílio na tomada de decisões clínicas e administrativas, conseguindo atingir benefícios como a diminuição das listas de espera, melhorias na qualidade do serviço prestado e a diminuição dos custos e desperdícios. Para tal, são usadas as metodologias Design Science Research e Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. De igual modo, são apresentados os principais conceitos inerentes a esta área de conhecimento, bem como trabalhos relacionados, que auxiliam na compreensão das abordagens que estão a ser utilizadas, bem como na perceção das restrições e problemas encontrados. Em seguida, é apresentado o desenvolvimento deste projeto e a análise dos seus resultados. Finalmente, na conclusão, está presente uma síntese desta dissertação, as suas contribuições e o trabalho futuro.The management of waiting lists in hospitals is a topic of particular relevance, given its direct implication in the quality of health services provided to the patients, in the good management of human, material and financial resources and, finally, in the regulations issued by the Ministry of Health. This regulation stipulates a guaranteed maximum response time for the execution of Complementary Means of Diagnosis and Therapeutics, surgeries and outpatient appointments. This dissertation, entitled "Prescriptive Analytics for Managing Hospital Waiting Lists" has as its main objective the optimization of the decisions in the area of management of waiting lists for MCDT. This objective will be achieved through the development of models capable of improving scheduling, in order to reduce waiting list times and wasted resources. These models also need to be capable of integrating an Adaptive Business Intelligence system. The importance of the contribution that this project can bring to this field of action is evident, as it can help in clinical and administrative decision-making, achieving benefits such as the reduction of waiting lists, improvements in the quality of the service provided and the reduction of costs and waste. For this purpose, Design Science Research and Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining are used as methodologies. The main concepts inherent in this area of knowledge are also presented, as well as related works, which helped to understand the approaches that are being used, as well as in the perception of restrictions and problems encountered. Then, the development of this project and the analysis of its results are presented. Finally, at the conclusion, there is a summary of this dissertation, as well as its contributions and future work

Data bases and data base systems related to NASA's aerospace program. A bibliography with indexes

This bibliography lists 1778 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system, 1975 through 1980