Traffic accident predictions based on fuzzy logic approach for safer urban environments, case study: İzmir Metropolitan Area

Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2009Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 83-88)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxii, 119, leavesDissertation has dealt with one of the most chaotic events of an urban life that is the traffic accidents. This study is a preliminary and an explorative effort to establish an Accident Prediction Model (APM) for road safety in İzmir urban environment. Aim of the dissertation is to prevent or decrease the amount of possible future traffic accidents in İzmir metropolitan region, by the help of the developed APM. Urban traffic accidents have spatial and other external reasons independent from the vehicles or drivers, and these reasons can be predicted by mathematical models. The study deals with the factors of the traffic accidents, which are not based on the human behavior or vehicle characteristics. Therefore the prediction model is established through the following external factors, such as traffic volume, rain status and the geometry of the roads. Fuzzy Logic Modeling (FLM) is applied as a prediction tool in the study. Familiarizing fuzzy logic approach to the planning discipline is the secondary aim of the thesis and contribution to the literature. The conformity of fuzzy logic enables modeling through verbal data and intuitive approach, which is important to achieve uncertainties of planning issues

Bicycle level of service in urban Indian context

The purpose of this study is to define Bicycle level of service (BLOS) for urban Indian context based on the mixed traffic flow condition and various road attributes. Video camera was employed to collect the data sets from two cities, Rourkela and Bhubaneswar of Odisha State, India. The collected data are used to calibrate the BLOS model developed by the Florida Department of Transportation to find the BLOS score of each road segment. Calibrated model coefficients appropriate in Indian context are determined using multivariate regression analysis. In order to define levels of service provided by urban on-street segments, BLOS scores are classified into six categories (A-F) using k-mean, HAC, Fuzzy c-means, Affinity Propagation (AP), Self Organizing Map (SOM) and GA-fuzzy clustering methods. These clustering methods show different BLOS ranges for service categories. However, to know the most appropriate clustering technique applicable in Indian context, Average Silhouette Width (ASW) is calculated for every clustering method. After a thorough investigation it is induced that K-mean clustering method is the most appropriate one to define BLOS categories. The defined BLOS score ranges in this study are observed to be higher than that witnessed by FDOT studies; implies the kind of service the bicyclist perceived in urban Indian context is inferior to that observed by FDOT. From all the factors that affect BLOS score, “effective width of outside through lane” affects the most. The study concludes that bicyclist travel, more often, at the poor quality of service of “D”, “E” and “F”, than good quality of service of “A”, “B” and “C”. This may be due to lack of proper attention by the planners and developers towards bicycle facilities in urban Indian context

Évaluation et la représentation spatiotemporelle de l'accessibilité des réseaux piétonniers pour le déplacement des personnes à mobilité réduite

La mobilité des personnes à mobilité réduite (PMR) joue un rôle important dans leur inclusion sociale. Les PMR ont besoin de se déplacer de manière autonome pour effectuer leurs routines quotidiennes comme aller à l'école, au travail, au centre de remise en forme ou faire du magasinage. Cependant, celles-ci ne sont pas entièrement exécutées en raison de la conception non-adaptée des villes pour ces personnes. En effet, la mobilité est une habitude de vie humaine qui est le résultat d'interactions entre les facteurs humains (par exemple, les capacités) et les facteurs environnementaux. Au cours des dernières années, la mise au point de technologies d’aide technique s'est développée progressivement pour permettre aux PMR d’améliorer leur qualité de vie. En particulier, ces technologies offrent une variété de caractéristiques qui permettent à ces personnes de surmonter divers obstacles qui réduisent leur mobilité et contribuent à leur exclusion sociale. Cependant, malgré la disponibilité des technologies d’aide à la navigation et à la mobilité, leur potentiel est mal exploité pour les PMR. En effet, ces technologies ne considèrent pas les interactions « humain-environnement » adéquatement pour ces utilisateurs. L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'utiliser les potentiels des méthodes et des technologies de science de l'information géographique (SIG) afin d’aider à surmonter les problèmes de mobilité des PMR en créant un cadre d'évaluation de l'accessibilité et en développant une approche personnalisée de routage qui prend en compte les profils de ces personnes. Pour atteindre ce but, quatre objectifs spécifiques sont considérés: 1) développer une ontologie de mobilité pour les PMR qui considère les facteurs personnels et environnementaux, 2) proposer une méthode de l’évaluation de l'accessibilité du réseau piétonnier pour la mobilité des PMR en considérant spécifiquement les interactions entre les facteurs humains (la confiance) et les facteurs environnementaux, 3) étudier le rôle des facteurs sociaux dans l'accessibilité des zones urbaines et, finalement, 4) affiner les algorithmes existants pour calculer les itinéraires accessibles personnalisés pour les PMR en considérant leurs profils. En effet, tout d'abord pour développer une ontologie pour la mobilité des PMR, la dimension sociale de l'environnement ainsi que la dimension physique sont intégrées et une nouvelle approche basée sur une perspective « nature-développement » est présentée. Ensuite, une approche fondée sur la confiance des PMR est développée pour l'évaluation de l'accessibilité du réseau piétonnier, compte tenu de l'interaction entre les facteurs personnels et les facteurs environnementaux. De plus, dans une perspective de considération des facteurs sociaux, le rôle des actions politiques sur l'accessibilité du réseau piétonnier est étudié et l'influence de trois politiques potentielles est analysée. Enfin, une nouvelle approche pour calculer des itinéraires personnalisés pour les PMR en tenant compte de leurs perceptions, de leurs préférences et de leurs confidences est proposée. Les approches proposées sont développées et évaluées dans le quartier Saint-Roch à Québec, et ce, en utilisant une application d'assistance mobile et multimodale développée dans le cadre du projet MobiliSIG.Mobility of people with motor disabilities (PWMD) plays a significant role in their social inclusion. PWMD need to move around autonomously to perform their daily routines such as going to school, work, shopping, and going to fitness centers. However, mostly these needs are not accomplished because of either limitations concerning their capabilities or inadequate city design. Indeed, mobility is a human life habit, which is the result of interactions between people and their surrounded environments. In recent years, assistive technologies have been increasingly developed to enable PWMD to live independently and participate fully in all aspects of life. In particular, these technologies provide a variety of features that allow these individuals to overcome diverse obstacles that reduce their mobility and contribute to their social exclusion. However, despite increasing availability of assistive technologies for navigation and mobility, their potential is poorly exploited for PWMD. Indeed, these technologies do not fully consider the human-environment interactions. The overall goal of this dissertation is to benefit from the potentials of methods and technologies of the Geographic Information Sciences (GIS) in order to overcome the mobility issues of PWMD by creating an accessibility-assessing framework and ultimately by developing a personalized routing approach, which better considers the humanenvironment interaction. To achieve this goal, four specific objectives were followed: 1) develop a mobility ontology for PWMD that considers personal factors as well as environmental factors, 2) propose a method to evaluate the accessibility of the pedestrian network for the mobility of PWMD considering the interactions between human factors (confidence) and the environmental factors, 3) study of the role of social factors in the accessibility of urban areas, and finally, 4) refine the existing algorithms to calculate accessible routes for PWMD considering their profile. First, to develop an adapted ontology for mobility of the PWMD, the social dimension of the environment with the physical dimension were integrated and a new approach based on a “Nature-Development” perspective was presented. This perspective led to the development of useful ontologies, especially for defining the relationships between the social and physical parts of the environment. Next, a confidence-based approach was developed for evaluation of the accessibility of pedestrian network considering the interaction between personal factors and environmental factors for the mobility of PWMD. In addition, the role of policy actions on the accessibility of the pedestrian network was investigated and the influence of three potential policies was analyzed. Finally, a novel approach to compute personalized routes for PWMD considering their perception, preferences, and confidences was proposed. The approaches proposed were implemented in the Saint-Roch area of Quebec City and visualized within the multimodal mobile assistive technology (MobiliSIG) applicatio

Toward Renewable Eenergy Geo-information Infrastructures: Applications of GIScience and Remote Sensing that Build Institutional Capacity

Sustained policy support is necessary in order to drive a transition toward renewable energy (RE). The ability to realize RE policy objectives is constrained by a range of geographic factors related to resource potential, the distribution of resources, land availability/suitability, the absorptive capacity of proximal infrastructure, and local socio-political acceptance. With this in mind, this paper provides a systematic review of how geographic information science and remote sensing techniques have been applied to reduce uncertainties surrounding renewable energy development, with emphasis on policy and planning needs. The concept of a ‘geo-information infrastructure’ is used to bring coherence and direction to this growing body of literature. The review highlights four underdeveloped research areas, including: Resolving issues of scalar discordance through comprehensive analysis at local and regional scales; mapping interactions in space of multiple supply options to deliver more accurate and sophisticated estimates of RE potential in an area and to identify competitive and symbiotic land-use situations; using energy resource maps as primary inputs into the development of technology road-maps; and developing geographically explicit indicators which can signal priority areas for RE recovery based on social and environmental returns on investments. In each case, suggestions moving forward are provided. The paper identifies knowledge-based institutional networking as a pathway through which local and regional public authorities can be equipped with the resources necessary to build and mobilize a geo-information infrastructure

Book of abstracts of the 24th Euro Working Group on Transportation Meeting

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Modeling and improving Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI)

Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) development is widely known to be a challenging process owing to its complex and dynamic nature. Although great effort has been made to conceptually explain the complexity and dynamics of SDIs, few studies thus far have actually modeled these complexities. In fact, better modeling of SDI complexities will lead to more reliable plans for its development. A state-of-the-art simulation model of SDI development, hereafter referred to as SMSDI, was created by using the system dynamics (SD) technique. The SMSDI enables policy-makers to test various investment scenarios in different aspects of SDI and helps them to determine the optimum policy for further development of an SDI. This thesis begins with adaption of the SMSDI to a new case study in Tanzania by using the community of participant concept, and further development of the model is performed by using fuzzy logic. It is argued that the techniques and models proposed in this part of the study enable SDI planning to be conducted in a more reliable manner, which facilitates receiving the support of stakeholders for the development of SDI.Developing a collaborative platform such as SDI would highlight the differences among stakeholders including the heterogeneous data they produce and share. This makes the reuse of spatial data difficult mainly because the shared data need to be integrated with other datasets and used in applications that differ from those originally produced for. The integration of authoritative data and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI), which has a lower level structure and production standards, is a new, challenging area. The second part of this study focuses on proposing techniques to improve the matching and integration of spatial datasets. It is shown that the proposed solutions, which are based on pattern recognition and ontology, can considerably improve the integration of spatial data in SDIs and enable the reuse or multipurpose usage of available data resources

Insights into Simulated Smart Mobility on Roundabouts: Achievements, Lessons Learned, and Steps Ahead

This paper explores the domain of intelligent transportation systems, specifically focusing on roundabouts as potential solutions in the context of smart mobility. Roundabouts offer a safer and more efficient driving environment compared to other intersections, thanks to their curvilinear trajectories promoting speed control and lower vehicular speeds for traffic calming. The synthesis review supported the authors in presenting current knowledge and emerging needs in roundabout design and evaluation. A focused examination of the models and methods used to assess safety and operational performance of roundabout systems was necessary. This is particularly relevant in light of new challenges posed by the automotive market and the influence of vehicle-to-vehicle communication on the conceptualization and design of this road infrastructure. Two case studies of roundabouts were analyzed in Aimsun to simulate the increasing market penetration rates of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and their traffic impacts. Through microscopic traffic simulation, the research evaluated safety and performance efficiency advancements in roundabouts. The paper concludes by outlining areas for further research and evolving perspectives on the role of roundabouts in the transition toward connected and autonomous vehicles and infrastructures

A Multi-~Procedural Approach to Evaluating Walkability and Pedestrian Safety

Walking has sound health benefits and tends to be a pleasurable experience requiring no fuel, fare, license, nor registration. Whilst walking is recommended as part of physical activity, it is necessary to provide a conducive and safe walking environment. In an effort to determine an optimum combination of infrastructure that would create walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods eliminating unnecessary motorized trips; various approaches evaluating an assortment of features in the walking environment have been implemented. However, some factors such as crash risk which have an essential contribution to the suitability of the walking environment have yet to be considered. Therefore the objective of this study was to quantify the walking environment, by developing a comprehensive walkability index which reflects the condition of the walking environment as well as pedestrians\u27 perceptions of the walking environment. Developing the walkability index included three sub-objectives as follows: 1. Incorporate crash risk in the development of walkability indices which has not been done in previous walkability studies. An overall safety index was designed to estimate safety in the built environment in a more complete form. 2. Analyze the impact of features in the built walking environment on walking for recreational or utilitarian purposes. The analyses also determined whether sampled residents\u27 perception of their walking facilities is comparable to the objective audit observations in various categories. 3. Identify features in the built environment that influence resident perception of their walking environment. This involved analyzing patterns and relationships between features in the walking environment and resident perceptions. Results would relate resident perceptions and walking environment features using calibrated statistical models. The study methodology included conducting a resident survey, an audit of objectively measured features in the walking environment and a pedestrian safety analysis. The survey collected residents\u27 perceptions of their walking environment expressed using natural language. A perception quality grade of walkability based on resident perceptions was developed from the survey data. An audit of survey neighborhoods was performed by a trained auditor using Google earth, maps, and site visits. Features in the walking environment such as driveways, signals, and crosswalks among others, were measured on a segment by segment basis. Using the various features measured on a segment, an audit quality index for walkability was developed for each neighborhood. A crash index was also developed as a function of population and commercial land use within the survey neighborhoods. The findings of this study are expected to enhance evaluation of walking environments. The safety index incorporating crash risk and objectively measured safety elements provides a more representative indicator of safety levels within the walking environment. In addition, crash data increases objectivity to neighborhood audits depending on how audit scores are estimated. The fuzzy logic approach to estimating resident perceptions of the walking environment enables analysis of imprecise information to obtain logical output through computing with words. As such, residents\u27 opinions which are analyzed in an approximate framework similar to the human ability to manipulate and reason with perceptions are more consistent with initial resident evaluations. With improved walkability estimation, decision makers are better equipped during planning to select appropriate strategies that encourage walking in a safe environment for recreational and utilitarian purposes. Comparison of developed audit quality walkability indices, with and without crash data indicates significant differences in walkability indexes. Neighborhoods with initial high walkability indexes ranked much lower after crash data integration. Even without statistical significance, crash data provides more objectivity to audit quality indexes based on depending on data collection and reduction. The study used multinomial logit to identify parameters that influence walking frequency. Results indicate that land use, and aesthetic and amenities perceptions have a significant relationship with walking frequency. This is intuitive because more varied land uses not only attract more pedestrians, but also provides opportunities for trip chaining. As expected, better aesthetics and amenities and infrastructure are associated with higher walking frequencies. Both aesthetics and amenities and land use perception were correlated with safety, directness and continuity perceptions, implying improving the perception of one category was bound to have an impact on another perception category. The study also used mixed models to identify features in the built environment that influence the multinomial model perceptions that in turn influence walking frequency. Results from the continuity, directness, land use, aesthetics and amenities perception models are as expected. For example, neighborhoods with initial low land use perception are likely to be more sensitive to the presence of new commercial premises (e.g. small convenient store) nearby. However, directness-audit parameter serves as both a disincentive and incentive. To land use perception, increasing directness features results in uninhibited access to land uses which increases walking frequency. Conversely, increase in uninhibited access results in lower safety perception. Intuitively, enclosed communities have lower traffic flows as well as speed limits that are conducive for pedestrian activity as well as providing buffers from traffic. Overall, results indicate the need for a transactional evaluation approach, in which pedestrian behavior is multiply influenced by environmental features, perception of the walking environment, as well as social and cultural aspects