Futures Studies in the Interactive Society

This book consists of papers which were prepared within the framework of the research project (No. T 048539) entitled Futures Studies in the Interactive Society (project leader: Éva Hideg) and funded by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) between 2005 and 2009. Some discuss the theoretical and methodological questions of futures studies and foresight; others present new approaches to or procedures of certain questions which are very important and topical from the perspective of forecast and foresight practice. Each study was conducted in pursuit of improvement in futures fields

The Diffusion of Regulatory Oversight

The idea of cost-benefit analysis has been spreading internationally for centuries — at least since an American named Benjamin Franklin wrote a letter in 1772 to his British friend, Joseph Priestley, recommending that Priestley weigh the pros and cons of a difficult decision in what Franklin dubbed a “moral or prudential algebra” (Franklin 1772) (more on this letter below). Several recent studies show that the use of benefit-cost analysis (BCA), for both public projects and public regulation of private activities, is now unfolding in countries on every habitable continent around the world (Livermore and Revesz 2013; Quah and Toh 2012; De Francesco 2012; Livermore 2011; Cordova-Novion and Jacobzone 2011). This global diffusion of BCA is intermingled with the global diffusion of regulatory capitalism, in which privatized market actors are supervised by expert regulatory agencies (Levi-Faur 2005; Simmons et al. 2008), and with the international spread of ex ante regulatory precautions to anticipate and prevent risks despite uncertainty (Wiener et al. 2011)

IE WP 23/04 Prospective Voluntary Agreements to Escape Carbon Lock-in

The paper looks for co-evolutionary policy responses to carbon lock-in – a persistent state that creates systemic market and policy barriers to carbon low technological alternatives. We address the coordination role for authorities rather than the corrective optimisation and analyse experiences from environmental voluntary agreements and foresight activities. The paper argues that combining the virtues of these tools into a new policy tool, named Prospective Voluntary Agreement (PVA), can help facilitate an escape from carbon lock-in and provide policy resources for addressing lock-in related issues. The merit of PVA lies with the enhancement of collaborative policy culture and inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary stakeholder learning that creates commitment to desired action for escaping lock-in.environmental voluntary agreement; foresight; increasing returns; lock-in; path-dependence

Selected Instruments for Management of Technology Development

Polska dysponuje pewnymi możliwościami rozwijania nowoczesnych technologii, także tych, które aktualnie znajdują się w pierwszych fazach cyklu życia (np. nanotechnologii, spintroniki, fizykochemii zjawisk powierzchniowych, robotyki itd.), i mają wysoki potencjał generowania zysku przy relatywnie niskich (bo niezwiązanych z samymi kosztami produkcji) nakładach inwestycyjnych i niższych wymaganiach, jeśli chodzi o wcześniej zdobyte doświadczenie. Wykorzystanie tych możliwości wymaga rozszerzenia o nowe podejścia tradycyjnego instrumentarium zarządzania technologią, opartego głównie na dorobku teorii racjonalnych oczekiwań. Wśród tych nowych podejść na szczególną uwagę zasługuje foresight i towarzyszące mu: cykl życia technologii i mapowanie, które są przedmiotem niniejszego artykułu

Construction IT in 2030: a scenario planning approach

Summary: This paper presents a scenario planning effort carried out in order to identify the possible futures that construction industry and construction IT might face. The paper provides a review of previous research in the area and introduces the scenario planning approach. It then describes the adopted research methodology. The driving forces of change and main trends, issues and factors determined by focusing on factors related to society, technology, environment, economy and politics are discussed. Four future scenarios developed for the year 2030 are described. These scenarios start from the global view and present the images of the future world. They then focus on the construction industry and the ICT implications. Finally, the preferred scenario determined by the participants of a prospective workshop is presented

Wild cards, weak signals and prganizational improvisation

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with ongoing crisis. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.wild cards, weak signals, improvisation, minimal structures

The meaning of life in a developing universe

The evolution of life on Earth has produced an organism that is beginning to model and understand its own evolution and the possible future evolution of life in the universe. These models and associated evidence show that evolution on Earth has a trajectory. The scale over which living processes are organized cooperatively has increased progressively, as has its evolvability. Recent theoretical advances raise the possibility that this trajectory is itself part of a wider developmental process. According to these theories, the developmental process has been shaped by a larger evolutionary process that involves the reproduction of universes. This evolutionary process has tuned the key parameters of the universe to increase the likelihood that life will emerge and develop to produce outcomes that are successful in the larger process (e.g. a key outcome may be to produce life and intelligence that intentionally reproduces the universe and tunes the parameters of ‘offspring’ universes). Theory suggests that when life emerges on a planet, it moves along this trajectory of its own accord. However, at a particular point evolution will continue to advance only if organisms emerge that decide to advance the evolutionary process intentionally. The organisms must be prepared to make this commitment even though the ultimate nature and destination of the process is uncertain, and may forever remain unknown. Organisms that complete this transition to intentional evolution will drive the further development of life and intelligence in the universe. Humanity’s increasing understanding of the evolution of life in the universe is rapidly bringing it to the threshold of this major evolutionary transition