Channels of Synthesis Forty Years On: Integrated Analysis of Spatial Economic Systems

Isard’s vision of integrated modeling that was laid out in the 1960s book Methods of Regional Science provided a road map for the development of more sophisticated analysis of spatial economic systems. Some forty years later, we look back at this vision and trace developments in a sample of three areas – demographic-econometric integrated modeling, spatial interaction modeling, and environmental-economic modeling. Attention will be focused on methodological advances and their motivation by new developments in theory as well as innovations in the applications of these models to address new policy challenges. Underlying the discussion will be an evaluation of the way in which spatial issues have been addressed, ranging from concerns with regionalization to issues of spillovers and spatial correlation.Spatial economic system, Integrated analysis,

Collaborative logistics and eco-efficiency indicators: an analysis of soy and fertilizer transportation in the ports of Santos and Paranaguá

The present study aims to investigate the use of collaborative logistics between soybean export and fertilizer import operations in the main logistical corridors in the state of Mato Grosso to the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, aiming to identify, analyze and propose an indicator of eco-efficiency that seeks to reduce the financial and environmental impacts of this practice. For that, two scenarios were analyzed, namely: base and ideal. In the ideal scenario, the entire imported fertilizer load participates in collaborative logistics. The base scenario was defined by applying a questionnaire to 96 drivers working in the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, thus identifying the incidence of trucks that return loaded from the port areas with fertilizers. Comparing the base scenario with the ideal scenario, the potential impact regarding the costs of road transport of fertilizers is around R$14,696,509.89 in the port of Santos and R$ 11,806,055.10 in Paranaguá, totaling R$ 26,502,564.99. In the ideal scenario, there was a reduction in CO2 emission during 2018 in the order of 29.48 kg CO2 per ton transported in the port of Santos, with the reduction obtained in Paranaguá was 14.38 kg CO2 per ton

Autoregressive vectors model in the analysis of the determinants of soybean production in Brazil

The general objective of this work was to identify what were the determinants of soybean production increase in Brazil, between 1980 and 2015. This work uses the Self-Regressive Vector (VAR) methodology for the estimation of empirical models. Allow the obtaining of evidence capable of clarifying the question about the determinant factors of the soybean productivity in this period. They pointed evidences of a greater relation between the soybean productivity increase and the physicochemical innovations. In addition, as the data reveal, there is idle capacity to expand soybean production, as well as increased productivity for the coming years. The empirical analysis suggests that, in fact, soybean productivity in Brazil is increasing, as occurred in the forecast test performed in this study

Essays on agricultural commodity spot and forward markets

This thesis explores several topics related to agricultural commodities. It is comprised of three empirical chapters: In Chapter 2, we show the validity of investing capital in fertilizer mining companies, both from a market return perspective for individual or institutional investors, and from a hedging standpoint for insurance companies and other economic actors exposed to inflation risk and high agricultural commodity prices. First, we explore the relationship between corn, wheat, and fertilizers, showing how price spikes in corn and wheat, followed by a price spike in fertilizers, made fertilizers visible to investors for the first time. We then analyse an exhaustive sample of listed fertilizer-mining companies and look at the sensitivities of their stocks to agricultural indexes and the fertilizer index in order to better explain the high returns they offered at the time of the first food crisis. Chapter 3 focuses on corn and wheat and is twofold. Firstly, we argue that the coefficient of variation and standard deviation of prices are more informative measures of uncertainty than the volatility of returns, since it is food prices and their “volatility” that matter for the survival of human beings. Secondly, we compare the quality of future price prediction provided by individual forward contracts with the geometric average of the forward curve introduced by Borovkova and Geman (2006). We find that the average value of the forward [...

Global-scale modeling of nitrogen balances at the soil surface

This paper provides global terrestrial surface balances of nitrogen (N) at a resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 degree for the years 1961, 1995 and 2050 as simulated by the model WaterGAP-N. The terms livestock N excretion (Nanm), synthetic N fertilizer (Nfert), atmospheric N deposition (Ndep) and biological N fixation (Nfix) are considered as input while N export by plant uptake (Nexp) and ammonia volatilization (Nvol) are taken into account as output terms. The different terms in the balance are compared to results of other global models and uncertainties are described. Total global surface N surplus increased from 161 Tg N yr-1 in 1961 to 230 Tg N yr-1 in 1995. Using assumptions for the scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as quantified by the IMAGE model, total global surface N surplus is estimated to be 229 Tg N yr-1 in 2050. However, the implementation of these scenario assumptions leads to negative surface balances in many agricultural areas on the globe, which indicates that the assumptions about N fertilizer use and crop production changes are not consistent. Recommendations are made on how to change the assumptions about N fertilizer use to receive a more consistent scenario, which would lead to higher N surpluses in 2050 as compared to 1995

Design for sustainability in future scenarios in the self-service food packaging sector

The increase in the reciprocal demand of the packaging and food industries currently promotes a volume of waste that is disproportionate to an efficient management in terms of environmental, socio-ethical, economical and political sustainability. In this context, this research proposes the development of a methodology to define strategies that provide parameters for decisions guided by Design for Sustainability. It is anchored in the principle that the discontinuity of the current patterns of production and consumption is essential to achieve transformations with more promising results. This precept was related to Future Studies and in its premise to establish parameters that configure changes of perspective, as well as a deep awareness of the implications that involve the making of decisions. In this field of research, the recognition and adaptation of the Future Workshop method and the creation of Scenarios were highlighted. In this juncture, the scenarios obtained evidenced the aid they can provide for the elaboration of strategies that better lead to a preferable future. In order to seek a verification of this finding, an experiment was developed resulting in a system-packaging concept complementing the applicability of the proposed methodological structure.Keywords: design for sustainability, packaging, food, self-service, future studies, scenarios

Future harvest : the fine line between myopia and utopia

Inaugural lecture upon taking up the post fo Personal Professor of Plant Production Systems at Wageningen University on 12 May 2011