A soft computing decision support framework for e-learning

Tesi per compendi de publicacions.Supported by technological development and its impact on everyday activities, e-Learning and b-Learning (Blended Learning) have experienced rapid growth mainly in higher education and training. Its inherent ability to break both physical and cultural distances, to disseminate knowledge and decrease the costs of the teaching-learning process allows it to reach anywhere and anyone. The educational community is divided as to its role in the future. It is believed that by 2019 half of the world's higher education courses will be delivered through e-Learning. While supporters say that this will be the educational mode of the future, its detractors point out that it is a fashion, that there are huge rates of abandonment and that their massification and potential low quality, will cause its fall, assigning it a major role of accompanying traditional education. There are, however, two interrelated features where there seems to be consensus. On the one hand, the enormous amount of information and evidence that Learning Management Systems (LMS) generate during the e-Learning process and which is the basis of the part of the process that can be automated. In contrast, there is the fundamental role of e-tutors and etrainers who are guarantors of educational quality. These are continually overwhelmed by the need to provide timely and effective feedback to students, manage endless particular situations and casuistics that require decision making and process stored information. In this sense, the tools that e-Learning platforms currently provide to obtain reports and a certain level of follow-up are not sufficient or too adequate. It is in this point of convergence Information-Trainer, where the current developments of the LMS are centered and it is here where the proposed thesis tries to innovate. This research proposes and develops a platform focused on decision support in e-Learning environments. Using soft computing and data mining techniques, it extracts knowledge from the data produced and stored by e-Learning systems, allowing the classification, analysis and generalization of the extracted knowledge. It includes tools to identify models of students' learning behavior and, from them, predict their future performance and enable trainers to provide adequate feedback. Likewise, students can self-assess, avoid those ineffective behavior patterns, and obtain real clues about how to improve their performance in the course, through appropriate routes and strategies based on the behavioral model of successful students. The methodological basis of the mentioned functionalities is the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR), which is particularly useful in the modeling of dynamic systems. During the development of the research, the FIR methodology has been improved and empowered by the inclusion of several algorithms. First, an algorithm called CR-FIR, which allows determining the Causal Relevance that have the variables involved in the modeling of learning and assessment of students. In the present thesis, CR-FIR has been tested on a comprehensive set of classical test data, as well as real data sets, belonging to different areas of knowledge. Secondly, the detection of atypical behaviors in virtual campuses was approached using the Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) methodology, which is a probabilistic alternative to the well-known Self-Organizing Maps. GTM was used simultaneously for clustering, visualization and detection of atypical data. The core of the platform has been the development of an algorithm for extracting linguistic rules in a language understandable to educational experts, which helps them to obtain patterns of student learning behavior. In order to achieve this functionality, the LR-FIR algorithm (Extraction of Linguistic Rules in FIR) was designed and developed as an extension of FIR that allows both to characterize general behavior and to identify interesting patterns. In the case of the application of the platform to several real e-Learning courses, the results obtained demonstrate its feasibility and originality. The teachers' perception about the usability of the tool is very good, and they consider that it could be a valuable resource to mitigate the time requirements of the trainer that the e-Learning courses demand. The identification of student behavior models and prediction processes have been validated as to their usefulness by expert trainers. LR-FIR has been applied and evaluated in a wide set of real problems, not all of them in the educational field, obtaining good results. The structure of the platform makes it possible to assume that its use is potentially valuable in those domains where knowledge management plays a preponderant role, or where decision-making processes are a key element, e.g. ebusiness, e-marketing, customer management, to mention just a few. The Soft Computing tools used and developed in this research: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR and GTM, have been applied successfully in other real domains, such as music, medicine, weather behaviors, etc.Soportado por el desarrollo tecnológico y su impacto en las diferentes actividades cotidianas, el e-Learning (o aprendizaje electrónico) y el b-Learning (Blended Learning o aprendizaje mixto), han experimentado un crecimiento vertiginoso principalmente en la educación superior y la capacitación. Su habilidad inherente para romper distancias tanto físicas como culturales, para diseminar conocimiento y disminuir los costes del proceso enseñanza aprendizaje le permite llegar a cualquier sitio y a cualquier persona. La comunidad educativa se encuentra dividida en cuanto a su papel en el futuro. Se cree que para el año 2019 la mitad de los cursos de educación superior del mundo se impartirá a través del e-Learning. Mientras que los partidarios aseguran que ésta será la modalidad educativa del futuro, sus detractores señalan que es una moda, que hay enormes índices de abandono y que su masificación y potencial baja calidad, provocará su caída, reservándole un importante papel de acompañamiento a la educación tradicional. Hay, sin embargo, dos características interrelacionadas donde parece haber consenso. Por un lado, la enorme generación de información y evidencias que los sistemas de gestión del aprendizaje o LMS (Learning Management System) generan durante el proceso educativo electrónico y que son la base de la parte del proceso que se puede automatizar. En contraste, está el papel fundamental de los e-tutores y e-formadores que son los garantes de la calidad educativa. Éstos se ven continuamente desbordados por la necesidad de proporcionar retroalimentación oportuna y eficaz a los alumnos, gestionar un sin fin de situaciones particulares y casuísticas que requieren toma de decisiones y procesar la información almacenada. En este sentido, las herramientas que las plataformas de e-Learning proporcionan actualmente para obtener reportes y cierto nivel de seguimiento no son suficientes ni demasiado adecuadas. Es en este punto de convergencia Información-Formador, donde están centrados los actuales desarrollos de los LMS y es aquí donde la tesis que se propone pretende innovar. La presente investigación propone y desarrolla una plataforma enfocada al apoyo en la toma de decisiones en ambientes e-Learning. Utilizando técnicas de Soft Computing y de minería de datos, extrae conocimiento de los datos producidos y almacenados por los sistemas e-Learning permitiendo clasificar, analizar y generalizar el conocimiento extraído. Incluye herramientas para identificar modelos del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes y, a partir de ellos, predecir su desempeño futuro y permitir a los formadores proporcionar una retroalimentación adecuada. Así mismo, los estudiantes pueden autoevaluarse, evitar aquellos patrones de comportamiento poco efectivos y obtener pistas reales acerca de cómo mejorar su desempeño en el curso, mediante rutas y estrategias adecuadas a partir del modelo de comportamiento de los estudiantes exitosos. La base metodológica de las funcionalidades mencionadas es el Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR, por sus siglas en inglés), que es particularmente útil en el modelado de sistemas dinámicos. Durante el desarrollo de la investigación, la metodología FIR ha sido mejorada y potenciada mediante la inclusión de varios algoritmos. En primer lugar un algoritmo denominado CR-FIR, que permite determinar la Relevancia Causal que tienen las variables involucradas en el modelado del aprendizaje y la evaluación de los estudiantes. En la presente tesis, CR-FIR se ha probado en un conjunto amplio de datos de prueba clásicos, así como conjuntos de datos reales, pertenecientes a diferentes áreas de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, la detección de comportamientos atípicos en campus virtuales se abordó mediante el enfoque de Mapeo Topográfico Generativo (GTM), que es una alternativa probabilística a los bien conocidos Mapas Auto-organizativos. GTM se utilizó simultáneamente para agrupamiento, visualización y detección de datos atípicos. La parte medular de la plataforma ha sido el desarrollo de un algoritmo de extracción de reglas lingüísticas en un lenguaje entendible para los expertos educativos, que les ayude a obtener los patrones del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes. Para lograr dicha funcionalidad, se diseñó y desarrolló el algoritmo LR-FIR, (extracción de Reglas Lingüísticas en FIR, por sus siglas en inglés) como una extensión de FIR que permite tanto caracterizar el comportamiento general, como identificar patrones interesantes. En el caso de la aplicación de la plataforma a varios cursos e-Learning reales, los resultados obtenidos demuestran su factibilidad y originalidad. La percepción de los profesores acerca de la usabilidad de la herramienta es muy buena, y consideran que podría ser un valioso recurso para mitigar los requerimientos de tiempo del formador que los cursos e-Learning exigen. La identificación de los modelos de comportamiento de los estudiantes y los procesos de predicción han sido validados en cuanto a su utilidad por los formadores expertos. LR-FIR se ha aplicado y evaluado en un amplio conjunto de problemas reales, no todos ellos del ámbito educativo, obteniendo buenos resultados. La estructura de la plataforma permite suponer que su utilización es potencialmente valiosa en aquellos dominios donde la administración del conocimiento juegue un papel preponderante, o donde los procesos de toma de decisiones sean una pieza clave, por ejemplo, e-business, e-marketing, administración de clientes, por mencionar sólo algunos. Las herramientas de Soft Computing utilizadas y desarrolladas en esta investigación: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR y GTM, ha sido aplicadas con éxito en otros dominios reales, como música, medicina, comportamientos climáticos, etc.Postprint (published version

Game-Theoretic Safety Assurance for Human-Centered Robotic Systems

In order for autonomous systems like robots, drones, and self-driving cars to be reliably introduced into our society, they must have the ability to actively account for safety during their operation. While safety analysis has traditionally been conducted offline for controlled environments like cages on factory floors, the much higher complexity of open, human-populated spaces like our homes, cities, and roads makes it unviable to rely on common design-time assumptions, since these may be violated once the system is deployed. Instead, the next generation of robotic technologies will need to reason about safety online, constructing high-confidence assurances informed by ongoing observations of the environment and other agents, in spite of models of them being necessarily fallible.This dissertation aims to lay down the necessary foundations to enable autonomous systems to ensure their own safety in complex, changing, and uncertain environments, by explicitly reasoning about the gap between their models and the real world. It first introduces a suite of novel robust optimal control formulations and algorithmic tools that permit tractable safety analysis in time-varying, multi-agent systems, as well as safe real-time robotic navigation in partially unknown environments; these approaches are demonstrated on large-scale unmanned air traffic simulation and physical quadrotor platforms. After this, it draws on Bayesian machine learning methods to translate model-based guarantees into high-confidence assurances, monitoring the reliability of predictive models in light of changing evidence about the physical system and surrounding agents. This principle is first applied to a general safety framework allowing the use of learning-based control (e.g. reinforcement learning) for safety-critical robotic systems such as drones, and then combined with insights from cognitive science and dynamic game theory to enable safe human-centered navigation and interaction; these techniques are showcased on physical quadrotors—flying in unmodeled wind and among human pedestrians—and simulated highway driving. The dissertation ends with a discussion of challenges and opportunities ahead, including the bridging of safety analysis and reinforcement learning and the need to ``close the loop'' around learning and adaptation in order to deploy increasingly advanced autonomous systems with confidence

What is Robotics: Why Do We Need It and How Can We Get It?

Robotics is an emerging synthetic science concerned with programming work. Robot technologies are quickly advancing beyond the insights of the existing science. More secure intellectual foundations will be required to achieve better, more reliable and safer capabilities as their penetration into society deepens. Presently missing foundations include the identification of fundamental physical limits, the development of new dynamical systems theory and the invention of physically grounded programming languages. The new discipline needs a departmental home in the universities which it can justify both intellectually and by its capacity to attract new diverse populations inspired by the age old human fascination with robots. For more information: Kod*la

08031 Abstracts Collection -- Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems

From 13.01. to 18.01.2008, the Dagstuhl Seminar 08031 ``Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems\u27\u27 was held in the International Conference and Research Center (IBFI), Schloss Dagstuhl. During the seminar, several participants presented their current research, and ongoing work and open problems were discussed. Abstracts of the presentations given during the seminar as well as abstracts of seminar results and ideas are put together in this paper. The first section describes the seminar topics and goals in general. Links to extended abstracts or full papers are provided, if available

Agent-Based Models and Human Subject Experiments

This paper considers the relationship between agent-based modeling and economic decision-making experiments with human subjects. Both approaches exploit controlled ``laboratory'' conditions as a means of isolating the sources of aggregate phenomena. Research findings from laboratory studies of human subject behavior have inspired studies using artificial agents in ``computational laboratories'' and vice versa. In certain cases, both methods have been used to examine the same phenomenon. The focus of this paper is on the empirical validity of agent-based modeling approaches in terms of explaining data from human subject experiments. We also point out synergies between the two methodologies that have been exploited as well as promising new possibilities.agent-based models, human subject experiments, zero- intelligence agents, learning, evolutionary algorithms

Environmental data stream mining through a case-based stochastic learning approach

© . This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Environmental data stream mining is an open challenge for Data Science. Common methods used are static because they analyze a static set of data, and provide static data-driven models. Environmental systems are dynamic and generate a continuous data stream. Dynamic methods coping with the temporal nature of data must be provided in Data Science. Our proposal is to model each environmental information unit, timely generated, as a new case/experience in a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system. This contribution aims to incrementally build and manage a Dynamic Adaptive Case Library (DACL). In this paper, a stochastic method for the learning of new cases and management of prototypes to create and manage the DACL in an incremental way is introduced. This stochastic method works with two main moments. An evaluation of the method has been carried using a data stream of air quality of the city of Obregon, Sonora. México, with good results. In addition, other datasets have been mined to ensure the generality of the approach.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft