Fixed-to-mobile substitution in the US, EU, and China: Forecasting technology diffusion using the Lotka-Volterra Competition model

Objectives The first purpose of this thesis is to test the performance of the Lotka – Volterra Competition model in forecasting demand for technologies. Secondly, the paper aims to determine the interrelationship between the markets and their expected behaviors based on population theories. Thirdly, it attempts to gauge the similarities and differences of market behaviors in the most developed economies based on GDPpc as of October 2018. Summary Total annual subscription for each market was used to perform in-sample forecasts. Parameterization was obtained using the Gauss-Newton non-linear least squares method with the Marquardt algorithm. Then, the stable equilibria were shown in the interactive outcome graphs, which indicate that the theoretical suggestions are well-supported by historical market patterns. Conclusions The results indicate high fitting performance (R-squares>0.98) with estimated data close to that of actual observations. Despite data complications, the model has a good degree of accuracy. The competitive relationships for the US, the EU, and China are suggested to be amensalism, amensalism, and pure competition, respectively. The equilibrium analyses show that in all scenarios, the mobile cellular market dominates the fixed-line phone market. Over time, mobile phones will substitute fixed – line phones and obtain maximum growth

The Interaction between Technical Change and Capital Investment Growth and Stability of R&D Model

Faced with an ever-changing economic environment, we have focused our attention on the study of the evolutionary relationship between the main factors of production. The originality of this work comes from a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the R&D model and considers the dynamic between labor, capital investment and technological progress. To understand the dynamics of the relationship between these variables in detail and to understand their long-term behavior, we have used the classical properties of Lotka Volterra’s differential equations. The results of the Lyapunov function which we introduced have proved that the growth rate of technological progress and capital accumulation reach a stable long-term equilibrium. A numerical application was carried out on Canon industry and proved an evolution in the nature of the link between capital and R&D investment. We have attributed this behavioral change to the process of learning through interaction

Supply chain challenges in the semiconductor industry

Abstract. This thesis focuses on the challenges of semiconductor supply chain management from the perspective of industrial engineering. The aim of this thesis is to form an overview of the situation, reviewing the factors by which the current events can mostly be explained, and certain remedies presented. The work includes a literature review that discusses the semiconductor manufacturing process, the nature of cyclical markets, the characteristics of demand and supply shocks, and the concept of the bullwhip effect. The results of the literature and market analysis are combined with expert interviews to form a framework on which conclusions and recommendations will be built. The findings of this study point to divergent incentives and patterns of action, the combined effect of which exacerbates the shortage, partly consciously but also unknowingly. Cooperation and communication between retailers, manufacturers, logistics companies, and raw material producers in certain high-risk sectors of the supply chain will continue to play a key role in minimizing similar shocks in the future. The most effective methods are expanding information flows, as well as direct cooperation between different parts of the supply chain. This development is likely to be further supported in the future by continuous progress in information technology, the expansion of data management, and the improvement of analytics tools. The study provides an extensive and current overview of a historically unique situation, the long-term effects of which can only be speculated for the time being. Based on the findings, it is possible to make recommendations for organizations operating in the current or somewhat similar circumstances, as well as to create a sort of period piece from the thinking and choices of decision-makers during a crisis for subsequent research.Tilaus-toimitusketjun haasteet puolijohdeteollisuudessa. Tiivistelmä. Tämä diplomityö käsittelee puolijohteiden tilaus-toimitusketjujen haasteita tuotantotalouden näkökulmasta. Tavoitteena on muodostaa yleiskuva puolijohdepulasta kerraten tapahtumat, joilla ainakin suurin osa taustatekijöistä voidaan selittää ja esittää niiden varalta torjuntakeinoja. Työhön kuuluu kirjallisuuskatsaus, jossa käydään läpi puolijohteiden valmistusprosessi pääpiirteineen, syklisten markkinoiden luonne, kysyntä- ja tarjontashokkien piirteitä, sekä esitellään Piiskanisku-ilmiön käsite. Kirjallisuus- ja markkinakatsauksen tulokset yhdistetään lopulta asiantuntijahaastatteluihin ja muodostetaan viitekehys, jonka ympärille johtopäätökset ja suositukset rakennetaan. Työn tulokset osoittavat erisuuntaisiin toimintamalleihin, joiden yhteisvaikutus pahentaa pulaa osittain tietoisesti, mutta myös osapuolten tiedostamatta. Keskeisimmässä roolissa vastaavien kysyntä- ja tarjontashokkien minimoinnissa tulee jatkossa olemaan tietyillä toimitusketjujen kannalta riskipitoisilla aloilla toimivien tilaajien, tuottajien ja raaka-ainevalmistajien välinen yhteistyö. Menetelmistä tehokkaimpia on suora piiskaniskuilmiöön puuttuminen informaatiovirtoja tehostamalla ja ketjun osien välinen nopeampi kommunikaatio. Tätä kehityskulkua tulevat todennäköisesti jatkossa tukemaan myös tietotekninen kehitys, datanhallinnan laajentuminen ja analytiikan parantuminen. Tutkimus tarjoaa laajan ja ajankohtaisen yleiskatsauksen historiallisesti ainutlaatuiseen tilanteeseen, jonka pitkäaikaisia vaikutuksia voidaan toistaiseksi vain arvailla. Tulosten pohjalta voidaan laatia toimintasuosituksia nykyisissä tai nykyisiä joltakin osin vastaavissa olosuhteissa toimiville organisaatioille, sekä luoda myöhemmin ajankuvaa kriisin keskellä päätöksiä tekevien tahojen ajattelusta ja valinnoista

The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport

This book tries to merge two streams of analysis: diffusion research, a relatively recent interdisciplinary field, and the long established disciplines of transportation planning and the economic history of transport systems. After World War II, diffusion research emerged simultaneously from a number of disciplines, including sociology, geography, and the economics of technological change. For over a hundred years economic historians have provided many detailed, but often fragmented studies of the development and socio-economic impacts of individual transport systems. At a conference held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in 1989 on Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior it became clear that while many valuable theories and models have been developed, a unifying theoretical framework has not yet emerged in diffusion research. This is related to the fact that research has almost exclusively concentrated on a micro-level analysis of technological or social/cultural change. This book makes a contribution toward bridging the different fields of diffusion research. First, by providing an overview of the different theoretical streams within the discipline, and secondly by studying diffusion phenomena for technological change at the sectoral level up to the macro-level diffusion of pervasive transport systems. The economic history of transportation has provided many prominent examples of the fruitfulness of blending macro theory with a strong empirical basis at the sectoral level. It was not the objective of this work to develop a new comprehensive theory of infrastructure development. Instead, the study aimed at combining the methodological apparatus developed within diffusion research with the empirical research tradition of the economic history of transportation. Its objective was to provide a synthetic description, covering all successive transport modes both individually in their historical evolution, and in their integration into a holistic view of the whole transport sector. The analysis is international and spans about 200 years, i.e., the developments in a number of countries are studied to highlight similarities and differences in development patterns. With such objectives, this work is both a risky and a necessarily limited effort, but it has been undertaken in the hope of providing some new perspectives for people working in, or interested in both fields

Sustainable Supply Chain Management

The book is a collection of studies dedicated to different perspectives of three dimensions or pillars of the sustainability of supply chain and supply chain management - economic, environmental, and social - and other aspects related to performance evaluation, optimization, and modelling of and for sustainable supply chain management, and thus presents another valuable contribution to sustainable development and sustainable way of life

The Bias of the World : Theories of Unequal Exchange in History

This is a history of theories and theorists of unequal exchange. Starting with mercantilists and Richard Cantillon's theory based on land values, it briefly covers the early Classical economists and Gerald Fitzhugh. Among early 20th century Marxist economists, unequal exchange appeared in Otto Bauer's explanation of nationalist antagonism, and in Henryk Grossmann as countering the breakdown of capitalism. It is argued that the addition to Marxist economic theory of international capital mobility and transfers of value was prompted in part by the confusion regarding national boundaries in the Habsburg Empire. As to Harold A. Innis, it is argued that theories of unequal exchange could make more use of him as the historian of the bias of communication than as the originator of the ?staple thesis?. The role of Raúl Prebisch as the originator of the debate on unequal exchange is questioned and his many similarities with mercantilist theorists underlined. It is shown how the debate on the Prebisch-Singer theorem on the terms of trade soon demonstrated that it was not so much specialisation on raw materials or manufactures that determined the terms of trade as underdevelopment or development per se. Building on the Classical economic paradigm and trying in the cold-war context to understand the British industrial revolution, W. Arthur Lewis's model focused on unequal wage-levels due to productivity differences and their non-equalisation due to political restrictions on migration, thereby making the ?commodity? terms of trade determined by the ?factoral? terms. Arghiri Emmanuel became the historical catalyst for the idea of unequal exchange, integrating mercantilist, Classical, and Marxist perspectives. Distinct from the ?monopoly? interpretation, his theory is presented in its Marxist, Sraffian and ecological versions. The specific historical function of unequal exchange in his perspective is linked to the no less original argument on the disequilibrium between the value of output and the purchasing power of income. Ecological theories of unequal exchange are also examined: Howard T. Odum's ?emergy? theory, Georg Borgström's ghost acreages, Hartvig Sætra's three-tense imperialism, ecological footprints as adopted by Jan Otto Andersson, and ecological dependency in Stephen Bunker and Joan Martinez-Alier. Instead of the transfer of ?labour? or ?ecological values? dominating much Marxist and ecological writings, a conception of unequal exchange is advocated focusing on ?horizontally? antagonistic social relations ? retaining a difference in levels of consumption, or appropriation of total societal/ecological output of goods and services, between large masses of populations ? and their reverberation on relative prices, or the terms of trade. More strict than common usage would allow, this delimitation retains what is most useful and original in the concept's history as makes it distinct from other traditions

Holistic Environmental Performance and Sustainability in Global Logistics Hubs: An Exploratory Multiple Case Study

In recent years, the emergence of global logistics hubs (GLHs) has been on the rise, with these hubs playing a critical role in facilitating the smooth flow of global trade through their strategic location and functions that support global supply chains. Furthermore, GLHs provide benefits to the regions hosting them through the attraction of foreign investment, enhancement of education, and creation of job opportunities. However, there are limited research studies on GLHs suggesting a gap in the current knowledge on the concept, which requires further exploration. Additionally, the accumulation of the functions and activities of existing and emerging GLHs is resulting in extensive environmental impact. The environmental performance and sustainability of GLHs is a topic that requires further exploration, particularly in light of the climate emergency, which is an urgent and pressing issue that requires immediate action (IPCC, 2022). The transportation and logistics sector, of which GLHs are heavily dependent on, is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. Therefore, it is imperative that GLHs are developed and operated in a sustainable and responsible manner given the global concentration of operations and activities in a specific location. This research aims to address this need by exploring the concept of GLHs and their environmental performance and sustainability. Adopting an inductive qualitative research approach and a multiple case study research method, this study focuses on four diverse GLH case studies: Rotterdam, Antwerp, Liverpool, and Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) GLHs. The aim of the research is to establish a comprehensive understanding of GLHs, their environmental performance, and sustainability for academic and industrial applications for emerging and fully developed GLHs. The research contributes to the gap in knowledge by providing an up-to-date and clear definition of GLHs, their primary stakeholders and their operations, and a multi-stage development model. Additionally, a holistic conceptual environmental performance measurement framework for GLHs encompassing their primary stakeholders is developed. The research also highlights the level of connection between stakeholders in GLHs, the governance structure, and environmental sustainability responsibility in GLHs. Furthermore, this study explores the factors that drive or impede environmental performance and sustainability in GLHs, and provides an illustration of these factors using a fishbone diagram