Faster convergence in seismic history matching by dividing and conquering the unknowns

The aim in reservoir management is to control field operations to maximize both the short and long term recovery of hydrocarbons. This often comprises continuous optimization based on reservoir simulation models when the significant unknown parameters have been updated by history matching where they are conditioned to all available data. However, history matching of what is usually a high dimensional problem requires expensive computer and commercial software resources. Many models are generated, particularly if there are interactions between the properties that update and their effects on the misfit that measures the difference between model predictions to observed data. In this work, a novel 'divide and conquer' approach is developed to the seismic history matching method which efficiently searches for the best values of uncertain parameters such as barrier transmissibilities, net:gross, and permeability by matching well and 4D seismic predictions to observed data. The ‘divide’ is carried by applying a second order polynomial regression analysis to identify independent sub-volumes of the parameters hyperspace. These are then ‘conquered’ by searching separately but simultaneously with an adapted version of the quasi-global stochastic neighbourhood algorithm. This 'divide and conquer' approach is applied to the seismic history matching of the Schiehallion field, located on the UK continental shelf. The field model, supplied by the operator, contained a large number of barriers that affect flow at different times during production, and their transmissibilities were largely unknown. There was also some uncertainty in the petrophysical parameters that controlled permeability and net:gross. Application of the method was accomplished because it is found that the misfit function could be successfully represented as sub-misfits each dependent on changes in a smaller number of parameters which then could be searched separately but simultaneously. Ultimately, the number of models required to find a good match reduced by an order of magnitude. Experimental design was used to contribute to the efficiency and the ‘divide and conquer’ approach was also able to separate the misfit on a spatial basis by using time-lapse seismic data in the misfit. The method has effectively gained a greater insight into the reservoir behaviour and has been able to predict flow more accurately with a very efficient 'divide and conquer' approach

Ensemble decision tree models using RUSBoost for estimating risk of iron failure in drinking water distribution systems

Safe, trusted drinking water is fundamental to society. Discolouration is a key aesthetic indicator visible to customers. Investigations to understand discolouration and iron failures in water supply systems require assessment of large quantities of disparate, inconsistent, multidimensional data from multiple corporate systems. A comprehensive data matrix was assembled for a seven year period across the whole of a UK water company (serving three million people). From this a novel data driven tool for assessment of iron risk was developed based on a yearly update and ranking procedure, for a subset of the best quality data. To avoid a ‘black box’ output, and provide an element of explanatory (human readable) interpretation, classification decision trees were utilised. Due to the very limited number of iron failures, results from many weak learners were melded into one high-quality ensemble predictor using the RUSBoost algorithm which is designed for class imbalance. Results, exploring simplicity vs predictive power, indicate enough discrimination between variable relationships in the matrix to produce ensemble decision tree classification models with good accuracy for iron failure estimation at District Management Area (DMA) scale. Two model variants were explored: ‘Nowcast’ (situation at end of calendar year) and ‘Futurecast’ (predict end of next year situation from this year’s data). The Nowcast 2014 model achieved 100% True Positive Rate (TPR) and 95.3% True Negative Rate (TNR), with 3.3% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The Futurecast 2014 achieved 60.5% TPR and 75.9% TNR, with 25.7% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The output can be used to focus preventive measures to improve iron compliance

Ensemble decision tree models using RUSBoost for estimating risk of iron failure in drinking water distribution systems

Safe, trusted drinking water is fundamental to society. Discolouration is a key aesthetic indicator visible to customers. Investigations to understand discolouration and iron failures in water supply systems require assessment of large quantities of disparate, inconsistent, multidimensional data from multiple corporate systems. A comprehensive data matrix was assembled for a seven year period across the whole of a UK water company (serving three million people). From this a novel data driven tool for assessment of iron risk was developed based on a yearly update and ranking procedure, for a subset of the best quality data. To avoid a ‘black box’ output, and provide an element of explanatory (human readable) interpretation, classification decision trees were utilised. Due to the very limited number of iron failures, results from many weak learners were melded into one high-quality ensemble predictor using the RUSBoost algorithm which is designed for class imbalance. Results, exploring simplicity vs predictive power, indicate enough discrimination between variable relationships in the matrix to produce ensemble decision tree classification models with good accuracy for iron failure estimation at District Management Area (DMA) scale. Two model variants were explored: ‘Nowcast’ (situation at end of calendar year) and ‘Futurecast’ (predict end of next year situation from this year’s data). The Nowcast 2014 model achieved 100% True Positive Rate (TPR) and 95.3% True Negative Rate (TNR), with 3.3% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The Futurecast 2014 achieved 60.5% TPR and 75.9% TNR, with 25.7% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The output can be used to focus preventive measures to improve iron compliance

Deep learning detection of types of water-bodies using optical variables and ensembling

Water features are one of the most crucial environmental elements for strengthening climate-change adaptation. Remote sensing (RS) technologies driven by artificial intelligence (AI) have emerged as one of the most sought-after approaches for automating water information extraction and indeed. In this paper, a stacked ensemble model approach is proposed on AquaSat dataset (more than 500,000 images collection via satellite and Google Earth Engine). A one-way Analysis of variance (ANOVA) test and the Kruskal Wallis test are conducted for various optical-based variables at 99% significance level to understand how these vary for different water bodies. An oversampling is done on the training data using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to solve the problem of class imbalance while the model is tested on an imbalanced data, replicating the real-life situation. To enhance state-of-the-art, the pros of standalone machine learning classifiers and neural networks have been utilized. The stacked model obtained 100% accuracy on the testing data when using the decision tree classifier as the meta model. This study has been cross validated five-fold and will help researchers working in in-situ water bodies detection with the use of stacked model classification

A Tale of Two Cities: Data and Configuration Variances in Robust Deep Learning

Deep neural networks (DNNs), are widely used in many industries such as image recognition, supply chain, medical diagnosis, and autonomous driving. However, prior work has shown the high accuracy of a DNN model does not imply high robustness (i.e., consistent performances on new and future datasets) because the input data and external environment (e.g., software and model configurations) for a deployed model are constantly changing. Hence, ensuring the robustness of deep learning is not an option but a priority to enhance business and consumer confidence. Previous studies mostly focus on the data aspect of model variance. In this article, we systematically summarize DNN robustness issues and formulate them in a holistic view through two important aspects, i.e., data and software configuration variances in DNNs. We also provide a predictive framework to generate representative variances (counterexamples) by considering both data and configurations for robust learning through the lens of search-based optimization