Assessing the Direct Economic Effects of Reallocating Irrigation Water to Alternative Uses: Concepts and an Application

Irrigation water reallocations are playing an increasingly important role in both developed and developing countries. With growing urban and environmental water demands, rising costs for the development of new water supplies, and irrigated agriculture usually including the least economically valuable use of water, transfers of irrigation water to alternative uses are increasing. However, such reallocations are often controversial, and it is often questioned whether the benefits resulting from these transactions are large enough to outweigh the associated costs. This paper reviews the experience with irrigation water transfers, including the involvement of the World Bank. It discusses the problems of assessing the direct economic effects of reallocations, with a focus on the foregone direct benefits in irrigated agriculture. Because foregone direct benefits cannot easily be directly observed, they need to be estimated. However, assessments have shown widely differing estimates -- even when the same methodology was used. The paper reviews the methodologies and model specifications used for estimating foregone direct benefits; illustrates the impact of different model specifications on the magnitude of estimates of foregone direct benefits based on an application in an example case; and draws conclusions with regard to future efforts in assessing reallocation effects, including calculating adequate compensation for farmers. Because estimating the direct benefits of irrigation expansion is methodologically equivalent to estimating foregone direct benefits from reduced irrigation water supplies, the findings have implications for a broader range of water allocation decisions

Rule-Based Intelligence on the Semantic Web: Implications for Military Capabilities

Rules are a key element of the Semantic Web vision, promising to provide a foundation for reasoning capabilities that underpin the intelligent manipulation and exploitation of information content. Although ontologies provide the basis for some forms of reasoning, it is unlikely that ontologies, by themselves, will support the range of knowledge-based services that are likely to be required on the Semantic Web. As such, it is important to consider the contribution that rule-based systems can make to the realization of advanced machine intelligence on the Semantic Web. This report aims to review the current state-of-the-art with respect to semantic rule-based technologies. It provides an overview of the rules, rule languages and rule engines that are currently available to support ontology-based reasoning, and it discusses some of the limitations of these technologies in terms of their inability to cope with uncertain or imprecise data and their poor performance in some reasoning contexts. This report also describes the contribution of reasoning systems to military capabilities, and suggests that current technological shortcomings pose a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of reasoning systems within the defence community. Some solutions to these shortcomings are presented and a timescale for technology adoption within the military domain is proposed. It is suggested that application areas such as semantic integration, semantic interoperability, data fusion and situation awareness provide the best opportunities for technology adoption within the 2015 timeframe. Other capabilities, such as decision support and the emulation of human-style reasoning capabilities are seen to depend on the resolution of significant challenges that may hinder attempts at technology adoption and exploitation within the 2020 timeframe

Key factor for hastening the strategic issue diagnosis process: a within organisational model

Previous research on Strategic Issue Diagnosis (SID) had focused on the complexity and novelty associated with the decision-making process in a turbulent environment. What had not been previously addressed in the extant literature is the requirement for speed inherent within the SID process, especially that is related to the gathering of information and facts through an organisation’s environmental scanning procedures. Since proactive management techniques, nimble processes, and systems that allow an organisation to be responsive and build rapid decision-making capabilities are important determinants of success in a turbulent environment, the element of speed associated with SID is an important factor. Our paper identifi es a series of propositions focusing att ention on elements of the environmental scanning processes and management hierarchies that are intended to counteract the recursiveness and redundancy inherent in SID systems and ultimately hasten the strategic decision-making process

Assessing the direct economic effects of reallocating irrigation water to alternative uses : concepts and an application

Irrigation water reallocations are playing an increasingly important role in both developed and developing countries. With growing urban and environmental water demands, rising costs for the development of new water supplies, and irrigated agriculture usually including the least economically valuable use of water, transfers of irrigation water to alternative uses are increasing. However, such reallocations are often controversial, and it is often questioned whether the benefits resulting from these transactions are large enough to outweigh the associated costs. This paper reviews the experience with irrigation water transfers, including the involvement of the World Bank. It discusses the problems of assessing the direct economic effects of reallocations, with a focus on the foregone direct benefits in irrigated agriculture. Because foregone direct benefits cannot easily be directly observed, they need to be estimated. However, assessments have shown widely differing estimates -- even when the same methodology was used. The paper reviews the methodologies and model specifications used for estimating foregone direct benefits; illustrates the impact of different model specifications on the magnitude of estimates of foregone direct benefits based on an application in an example case; and draws conclusions with regard to future efforts in assessing reallocation effects, including calculating adequate compensation for farmers. Because estimating the direct benefits of irrigation expansion is methodologically equivalent to estimating foregone direct benefits from reduced irrigation water supplies, the findings have implications for a broader range of water allocation decisions.Water Conservation,Water Economics,Water Policy&Governance,Irrigation and Drainage,Natural Resources Management

Fuzzy investment decision support for brownfield redevelopment

Tato disertační práce se zaměřuje na problematiku investování a podporu rozhodování pomocí moderních metod. Zejména pokud jde o analýzu, hodnocení a výběr tzv. brownfieldů pro jejich redevelopment (revitalizaci). Cílem této práce je navrhnout univerzální metodu, která usnadní rozhodovací proces. Proces rozhodování je v praxi komplikován též velkým počet relevantních parametrů ovlivňujících konečné rozhodnutí. Navržená metoda je založena na využití fuzzy logiky, modelování, statistické analýzy, shlukové analýzy, teorie grafů a na sofistikovaných metodách sběru a zpracování informací. Nová metoda umožňuje zefektivnit proces analýzy a porovnávání alternativních investic a přesněji zpracovat velký objem informací. Ve výsledku tak bude zmenšen počet prvků množiny nejvhodnějších alternativních investic na základě hierarchie parametrů stanovených investorem.This dissertation focuses on decision making, investing and brownfield redevelopment. Especially on the analysis, evaluation and selection of previously used real estates suitable for commercial use. The objective of this dissertation is to design a method that facilitates the decision making process with many possible alternatives and large number of relevant parameters influencing the decision. The proposed method is based on the use of fuzzy logic, modeling, statistic analysis, cluster analysis, graph theory and sophisticated methods of information collection and processing. New method allows decision makers to process much larger amount of information and evaluate possible investment alternatives efficiently.

Factors shaping the evolution of electronic documentation systems

The main goal is to prepare the space station technical and managerial structure for likely changes in the creation, capture, transfer, and utilization of knowledge. By anticipating advances, the design of Space Station Project (SSP) information systems can be tailored to facilitate a progression of increasingly sophisticated strategies as the space station evolves. Future generations of advanced information systems will use increases in power to deliver environmentally meaningful, contextually targeted, interconnected data (knowledge). The concept of a Knowledge Base Management System is emerging when the problem is focused on how information systems can perform such a conversion of raw data. Such a system would include traditional management functions for large space databases. Added artificial intelligence features might encompass co-existing knowledge representation schemes; effective control structures for deductive, plausible, and inductive reasoning; means for knowledge acquisition, refinement, and validation; explanation facilities; and dynamic human intervention. The major areas covered include: alternative knowledge representation approaches; advanced user interface capabilities; computer-supported cooperative work; the evolution of information system hardware; standardization, compatibility, and connectivity; and organizational impacts of information intensive environments

Domain-specific languages in Prolog for declarative expert knowledge in rules and ontologies

Declarative if–then rules have proven very useful in many applications of expert sys- tems. They can be managed in deductive databases and evaluated using the well-known forward-chaining approach. For domain-experts, however, the syntax of rules becomes complicated quickly, and already many different knowledge representation formalisms ex- ist. Expert knowledge is often acquired in story form using interviews. In this paper, we discuss its representation by defining domain-specific languages (Dsls) for declarative ex- pert rules. They can be embedded in Prolog systems in internal Dsls using term expan- sion and as external Dsls using definite clause grammars and quasi-quotations – for more sophisticated syntaxes. Based on the declarative rules and the integration with the Prolog-based deductive database system DDbase, multiple rules acquired in practical case studies can be combined, compared, graphically analysed by domain-experts, and evaluated, resulting in an extensi- ble system for expert knowledge. As a result, the actual modeling Dsl becomes executable; the declarative forward-chaining evaluation of deductive databases can be understood by the domain experts. Our Dsl for rules can be further improved by integrating ontologies and rule annotations