SunDown: Model-driven Per-Panel Solar Anomaly Detection for Residential Arrays

There has been significant growth in both utility-scale and residential-scale solar installa- tions in recent years, driven by rapid technology improvements and falling prices. Unlike utility-scale solar farms that are professionally managed and maintained, smaller residential- scale installations often lack sensing and instrumentation for performance monitoring and fault detection. As a result, faults may go undetected for long periods of time, resulting in generation and revenue losses for the homeowner. In this thesis, we present SunDown, a sensorless approach designed to detect per-panel faults in residential solar arrays. SunDown does not require any new sensors for its fault detection and instead uses a model-driven ap- proach that leverages correlations between the power produced by adjacent panels to de- tect deviations from expected behavior. SunDown can handle concurrent faults in multiple panels and perform anomaly classification to determine probable causes. Using two years of solar generation data from a real home and a manually generated dataset of multiple solar faults, we show that our approach has a MAPE of 2.98% when predicting per-panel output. Our results also show that SunDown is able to detect and classify faults, including from snow cover, leaves and debris, and electrical failures with 99.13% accuracy, and can detect multi- ple concurrent faults with 97.2% accuracy

Disaggregation of net-metered advanced metering infrastructure data to estimate photovoltaic generation

2019 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) is a system of smart meters and data management systems that enables communication between a utility and a customer's premise, and can provide real time information about a solar array's production. Due to residential solar systems typically being configured behind-the-meter, utilities often have very little information about their energy generation. In these instances, net-metered AMI data does not provide clear insight into PV system performance. This work presents a methodology for modeling individual array and system-wide PV generation using only weather data, premise AMI data, and the approximate date of PV installation. Nearly 850 homes with installed solar in Fort Collins, Colorado, USA were modeled for up to 36 months. By matching comparable periods of time to factor out sources of variability in a building's electrical load, algorithms are used to estimate the building's consumption, allowing the previously invisible solar generation to be calculated. These modeled outputs are then compared to previously developed white-box physical models. Using this new AMI method, individual premises can be modeled to agreement with physical models within ±20%. When modeling portfolio-wide aggregation, the AMI method operates most effectively in summer months when solar generation is highest. Over 75% of all days within three years modeled are estimated to within ±20% with established methods. Advantages of the AMI model with regard to snow coverage, shading, and difficult to model factors are discussed, and next-day PV prediction using forecasted weather data is also explored. This work provides a foundation for disaggregating solar generation from AMI data, without knowing specific physical parameters of the array or using known generation for computational training

Scalable Data-driven Modeling and Analytics for Smart Buildings

Buildings account for over 40% of the energy and 75% of the electricity usage. Thus, by reducing our energy footprint in buildings, we can improve our overall energysustainability. Further, the proliferation of networked sensors and IoT devices in recent years have enabled monitoring of buildings to provide data at various granularity. For example, smart plugs monitor appliance level usage inside the house, while solar meters monitor residential rooftop solar installations. Furthermore, smart meters record energy usage at a grid-scale. In this thesis, I argue that data-driven modeling applied to the IoT data from a smart building, at varying granularity, in association with third party data can help to understand and reduce human energy consumption. I present four data-driven modeling approaches — that use sophisticated techniques from Machine Learning, Optimization, and Time Series Analysis — applied at different granularities. First, I study IoT devices inside the house and discuss an approach called NIMD that au- tomatically models individual electrical loads found in a household. The analytical model resulting from this approach can be used in several applications. For example, these models can improve the performance of NILM algorithms to disaggregate loads in a given household. Further, faulty or energy-inefficient appliances can be identified by observing deviations in model parameters over its lifetime. Second, I examine data from solar meters and present a machine learning framework called SolarCast to forecast energy generation from residential rooftop installations. The predictions enable exploiting the benefits of locally-generated solar energy. Third, I employ a sensorless approach utilizing a graphical model representation to re- port city-scale photovoltaic panel health and identify anomalies in solar energy production. Immediate identification of faults maximizes the solar investment by aiding in optimal operational performance. Finally, I focus on grid-level smart meter data and use correlations between energy usage and external weather to derive probabilistic estimates of energy, which is leveraged to identify the least efficient buildings from a large population along with the underlying cause of energy inefficiency. The identified homes can be targeted for custom energy efficiency programs

Hybrid energy system integration and management for solar energy: a review

The conventional grid is increasingly integrating renewable energy sources like solar energy to lower carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases. While energy management systems support grid integration by balancing power supply with demand, they are usually either predictive or real-time and therefore unable to utilise the full array of supply and demand responses, limiting grid integration of renewable energy sources. This limitation is overcome by an integrated energy management system. This review examines various concepts related to the integrated energy management system such as the power system configurations it operates in, and the types of supply and demand side responses. These concepts and approaches are particularly relevant for power systems that rely heavily on solar energy and have constraints on energy supply and costs. Building on from there, a comprehensive overview of current research and progress regarding the development of integrated energy management system frameworks, that have both predictive and real-time energy management capabilities, is provided. The potential benefits of an energy management system that integrates solar power forecasting, demand-side management, and supply-side management are explored. Furthermore, design considerations are proposed for creating solar energy forecasting models. The findings from this review have the potential to inform ongoing studies on the design and implementation of integrated energy management system, and their effect on power systems