An Ensemble Approach to Space-Time Interpolation

There has been much excitement and activity in recent years related to the relatively sudden availability of earth-related data and the computational capabilities to visualize and analyze these data. Despite the increased ability to collect and store large volumes of data, few individual data sets exist that provide both the requisite spatial and temporal observational frequency for many urban and/or regional-scale applications. The motivating view of this paper, however, is that the relative temporal richness of one data set can be leveraged with the relative spatial richness of another to fill in the gaps. We also note that any single interpolation technique has advantages and disadvantages. Particularly when focusing on the spatial or on the temporal dimension, this means that different techniques are more appropriate than others for specific types of data. We therefore propose a space- time interpolation approach whereby two interpolation methods – one for the temporal and one for the spatial dimension – are used in tandem in order to maximize the quality of the result. We call our ensemble approach the Space-Time Interpolation Environment (STIE). The primary steps within this environment include a spatial interpolator, a time-step processor, and a calibration step that enforces phenomenon-related behavioral constraints. The specific interpolation techniques used within the STIE can be chosen on the basis of suitability for the data and application at hand. In the current paper, we describe STIE conceptually including the structure of the data inputs and output, details of the primary steps (the STIE processors), and the mechanism for coordinating the data and the 1 processors. We then describe a case study focusing on urban land cover in Phoenix Arizona. Our empirical results show that STIE was effective as a space-time interpolator for urban land cover with an accuracy of 85.2% and furthermore that it was more effective than a single technique.

An Ensemble Approach to Space-Time Interpolation

There has been much excitement and activity in recent years related to the relatively sudden availability of earth-related data and the computational capabilities to visualize and analyze these data. Despite the increased ability to collect and store large volumes of data, few individual data sets exist that provide both the requisite spatial and temporal observational frequency for many urban and/or regional-scale applications. The motivating view of this paper, however, is that the relative temporal richness of one data set can be leveraged with the relative spatial richness of another to fill in the gaps. We also note that any single interpolation technique has advantages and disadvantages. Particularly when focusing on the spatial or on the temporal dimension, this means that different techniques are more appropriate than others for specific types of data. We therefore propose a space- time interpolation approach whereby two interpolation methods – one for the temporal and one for the spatial dimension – are used in tandem in order to maximize the quality of the result. We call our ensemble approach the Space-Time Interpolation Environment (STIE). The primary steps within this environment include a spatial interpolator, a time-step processor, and a calibration step that enforces phenomenon-related behavioral constraints. The specific interpolation techniques used within the STIE can be chosen on the basis of suitability for the data and application at hand. In the current paper, we describe STIE conceptually including the structure of the data inputs and output, details of the primary steps (the STIE processors), and the mechanism for coordinating the data and the processors. We then describe a case study focusing on urban land cover in Phoenix, Arizona. Our empirical results show that STIE was effective as a space-time interpolator for urban land cover with an accuracy of 85.2% and furthermore that it was more effective than a single technique.

Methods in machine learning for probabilistic modelling of environment, with applications in meteorology and geology

Earth scientists increasingly deal with ‘big data’. Where once we may have struggled to obtain a handful of relevant measurements, we now often have data being collected from multiple sources, on the ground, in the air, and from space. These observations are accumulating at a rate that far outpaces our ability to make sense of them using traditional methods with limited scalability (e.g., mental modelling, or trial-and-error improvement of process based models). The revolution in machine learning offers a new paradigm for modelling the environment: rather than focusing on tweaking every aspect of models developed from the top down based largely on prior knowledge, we now have the capability to instead set up more abstract machine learning systems that can ‘do the tweaking for us’ in order to learn models from the bottom up that can be considered optimal in terms of how well they agree with our (rapidly increasing number of) observations of reality, while still being guided by our prior beliefs. In this thesis, with the help of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal examples in meteorology and geology, I present methods for probabilistic modelling of environmental variables using machine learning, and explore the considerations involved in developing and adopting these technologies, as well as the potential benefits they stand to bring, which include improved knowledge-acquisition and decision-making. In each application, the common theme is that we would like to learn predictive distributions for the variables of interest that are well-calibrated and as sharp as possible (i.e., to provide answers that are as precise as possible while remaining honest about their uncertainty). Achieving this requires the adoption of statistical approaches, but the volume and complexity of data available mean that scalability is an important factor — we can only realise the value of available data if it can be successfully incorporated into our models.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants and their health effects in the Pittsburgh region

Air pollutants have been associated with adverse health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases through epidemiological studies. Spatiotemporal and spatial statistics are widely used in both exposure assessment and health risk estimation of air pollutants. In the current paper, spatiotemporal and spatial models are developed for and applied to four specfic topics about air pollutants: (1) estimating spatiotemporal variations of particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 um (PM2.5) using monitoring data and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements, (2) estimating long-term spatial variations of ozone (O3) using monitoring data and satellite O3 profile measurements, (3) spatiotemporal associating acute exposure of air pollutants to mortality, and (4) spatiotemporal associating chronic air pollution exposure to lung cancer incidence. Environmental, socioeconomic and health data from Allegheny county and the State of Pennsylvania are collected to illustrate these techniques. The public health significance of these studies includes characterizing the exposure level of air pollutants and their health risks for mortality caused by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and lung cancer incidence in the Pittsburgh region and developing novel spatiotemporal models such as spatiotemporal generalized estimating equations for the regression analysis of spatiotemporal counts data, especially for the massive spatiotemporal data used in epidemiological studies

Estimating Daily NO2 Ground Level Concentrations Using Sentinel-5P and Ground Sensor Meteorological Measurements

Environmental and health deterioration due to the increasing presence of air pollutants is a pressing topic for governments and organizations. Institutions such as the European Environment Agency have determined that more than 350,000 premature deaths can be attributed to atmospheric pollutants. The measurement of trace gas atmospheric concentrations is key for environmental agencies to fight against the decreased deterioration of air quality. NO2 , which is one of the most harmful pollutants, has the potential to cause diseases such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Unfortunately, not all countries have local atmospheric pollutant monitoring networks to perform ground measurements (especially Low- and Middle-Income Countries). Although some alternatives, such as satellite technologies, provide a good approximation for tropospheric NO2 , these do not measure concentrations at the ground level. In this work, we aim to provide an alternative to ground sensor measurements. We used a combination of ground meteorological measurements with satellite Sentinel-5P observations to estimate ground NO2 . For this task, we used state-of-the-art Machine Learning models, linear regression models, and feature selection algorithms. From the results obtained, we found that a Multi-layer Perceptron Regressor and Kriging in combination with a Random Forest feature selection algorithm achieved the lowest RMSE (2.89 µg/m3 ). This result, in comparison with the real data standard deviation and the models using only satellite data, represented an RMSE decrease of 55%. Future work will focus on replacing the use of meteorological ground sensors with only satellite-based data