Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc

Holistic Learning for Multi-Target and Network Monitoring Problems

abstract: Technological advances have enabled the generation and collection of various data from complex systems, thus, creating ample opportunity to integrate knowledge in many decision making applications. This dissertation introduces holistic learning as the integration of a comprehensive set of relationships that are used towards the learning objective. The holistic view of the problem allows for richer learning from data and, thereby, improves decision making. The first topic of this dissertation is the prediction of several target attributes using a common set of predictor attributes. In a holistic learning approach, the relationships between target attributes are embedded into the learning algorithm created in this dissertation. Specifically, a novel tree based ensemble that leverages the relationships between target attributes towards constructing a diverse, yet strong, model is proposed. The method is justified through its connection to existing methods and experimental evaluations on synthetic and real data. The second topic pertains to monitoring complex systems that are modeled as networks. Such systems present a rich set of attributes and relationships for which holistic learning is important. In social networks, for example, in addition to friendship ties, various attributes concerning the users' gender, age, topic of messages, time of messages, etc. are collected. A restricted form of monitoring fails to take the relationships of multiple attributes into account, whereas the holistic view embeds such relationships in the monitoring methods. The focus is on the difficult task to detect a change that might only impact a small subset of the network and only occur in a sub-region of the high-dimensional space of the network attributes. One contribution is a monitoring algorithm based on a network statistical model. Another contribution is a transactional model that transforms the task into an expedient structure for machine learning, along with a generalizable algorithm to monitor the attributed network. A learning step in this algorithm adapts to changes that may only be local to sub-regions (with a broader potential for other learning tasks). Diagnostic tools to interpret the change are provided. This robust, generalizable, holistic monitoring method is elaborated on synthetic and real networks.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Industrial Engineering 201

Application of the Machine Learning Method for Predicting International Tourists in West Java Indonesia Using the Averege-Based Fuzzy Time Series Model

Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence where machines are designed to learn on their own without human direction. The machine learning method used by data science is one of them for the prediction process, such as predicting the number of tourists. Tourism is one of the economic sectors that has a direct impact on the people's economy. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the number of tourists coming to West Java, Indonesia fluctuates, meaning that the number can increase and decrease every month and year. This fluctuating change in the number of tourists has an impact on tourism actors. Therefore we need an appropriate model to make predictions so that related parties, one of which is the local government, can make policies in this sector. The purpose of this study is to propose whether the average-based fuzzy time series model is appropriate for use in predicting the number of foreign tourists coming to West Java, Indonesia. In this study the method used for prediction is the fuzzy time series method and the average-length-based algorithm as a determinant of the length of the interval. The effective interval length can affect the prediction results with a higher level of accuracy. The data used in this study is data from foreign tourists who came to West Java from January 2017 to April 2020 from Badan Pusat Statistik  (BPS) of West Java Indonesia. Based on the results of the prediction test, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is 14.71%, the results show that the average-based fuzzy time series model is good for prediction. This can be a decision support for related parties to make policies related to tourism preparation and planning efforts in West Java, Indonesia

Learning-aided Stochastic Network Optimization with Imperfect State Prediction

We investigate the problem of stochastic network optimization in the presence of imperfect state prediction and non-stationarity. Based on a novel distribution-accuracy curve prediction model, we develop the predictive learning-aided control (PLC) algorithm, which jointly utilizes historic and predicted network state information for decision making. PLC is an online algorithm that requires zero a-prior system statistical information, and consists of three key components, namely sequential distribution estimation and change detection, dual learning, and online queue-based control. Specifically, we show that PLC simultaneously achieves good long-term performance, short-term queue size reduction, accurate change detection, and fast algorithm convergence. In particular, for stationary networks, PLC achieves a near-optimal $[O(\epsilon)$, $O(\log(1/\epsilon)^2)]$ utility-delay tradeoff. For non-stationary networks, \plc{} obtains an $[O(\epsilon), O(\log^2(1/\epsilon)$ $+ \min(\epsilon^{c/2-1}, e_w/\epsilon))]$ utility-backlog tradeoff for distributions that last $\Theta(\frac{\max(\epsilon^{-c}, e_w^{-2})}{\epsilon^{1+a}})$ time, where $e_w$ is the prediction accuracy and $a=\Theta(1)>0$ is a constant (the Backpressue algorithm \cite{neelynowbook} requires an $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ length for the same utility performance with a larger backlog). Moreover, PLC detects distribution change $O(w)$ slots faster with high probability ($w$ is the prediction size) and achieves an $O(\min(\epsilon^{-1+c/2}, e_w/\epsilon)+\log^2(1/\epsilon))$ convergence time. Our results demonstrate that state prediction (even imperfect) can help (i) achieve faster detection and convergence, and (ii) obtain better utility-delay tradeoffs

Impact of adversarial examples on deep learning models for biomedical image segmentation

Deep learning models, which are increasingly being used in the field of medical image analysis, come with a major security risk, namely, their vulnerability to adversarial examples. Adversarial examples are carefully crafted samples that force machine learning models to make mistakes during testing time. These malicious samples have been shown to be highly effective in misguiding classification tasks. However, research on the influence of adversarial examples on segmentation is significantly lacking. Given that a large portion of medical imaging problems are effectively segmentation problems, we analyze the impact of adversarial examples on deep learning-based image segmentation models. Specifically, we expose the vulnerability of these models to adversarial examples by proposing the Adaptive Segmentation Mask Attack (ASMA). This novel algorithm makes it possible to craft targeted adversarial examples that come with (1) high intersection-over-union rates between the target adversarial mask and the prediction and (2) with perturbation that is, for the most part, invisible to the bare eye. We lay out experimental and visual evidence by showing results obtained for the ISIC skin lesion segmentation challenge and the problem of glaucoma optic disc segmentation. An implementation of this algorithm and additional examples can be found at https://github.com/utkuozbulak/adaptive-segmentation-mask-attack

Interpretable Predictions of Tree-based Ensembles via Actionable Feature Tweaking

Machine-learned models are often described as "black boxes". In many real-world applications however, models may have to sacrifice predictive power in favour of human-interpretability. When this is the case, feature engineering becomes a crucial task, which requires significant and time-consuming human effort. Whilst some features are inherently static, representing properties that cannot be influenced (e.g., the age of an individual), others capture characteristics that could be adjusted (e.g., the daily amount of carbohydrates taken). Nonetheless, once a model is learned from the data, each prediction it makes on new instances is irreversible - assuming every instance to be a static point located in the chosen feature space. There are many circumstances however where it is important to understand (i) why a model outputs a certain prediction on a given instance, (ii) which adjustable features of that instance should be modified, and finally (iii) how to alter such a prediction when the mutated instance is input back to the model. In this paper, we present a technique that exploits the internals of a tree-based ensemble classifier to offer recommendations for transforming true negative instances into positively predicted ones. We demonstrate the validity of our approach using an online advertising application. First, we design a Random Forest classifier that effectively separates between two types of ads: low (negative) and high (positive) quality ads (instances). Then, we introduce an algorithm that provides recommendations that aim to transform a low quality ad (negative instance) into a high quality one (positive instance). Finally, we evaluate our approach on a subset of the active inventory of a large ad network, Yahoo Gemini.Comment: 10 pages, KDD 201

Learning from Ontology Streams with Semantic Concept Drift

Data stream learning has been largely studied for extracting knowledge structures from continuous and rapid data records. In the semantic Web, data is interpreted in ontologies and its ordered sequence is represented as an ontology stream. Our work exploits the semantics of such streams to tackle the problem of concept drift i.e., unexpected changes in data distribution, causing most of models to be less accurate as time passes. To this end we revisited (i) semantic inference in the context of supervised stream learning, and (ii) models with semantic embeddings. The experiments show accurate prediction with data from Dublin and Beijing