Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

Interactive Problem Structuring with ICZM Stakeholders

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of science-management integration. Many computer systems, usually known as “decision support systems”, have been developed with the intention to make scientific knowledge about complex systems more accessible for coastal managers. These tools, allowing a multi-disciplinary approach with multi-criteria analyses, are designed for well-defined, structured problems. However, in practice stakeholder consensus on the problem structure is usually lacking. Aim of this paper is to explore the practical opportunities for the new so-called Quasta approach to structure complex problems in a group setting. This approach is based on a combination of Cognitive Mapping and Qualitative Probabilistic Networks. It comprehends a new type of computer system which is quite simple and flexible as well. The tool is tested in two workshops in which various coastal management issues were discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that (1) this system helps stakeholders to make them aware of causal relationships, (2) it is useful for a qualitative exploration of scenarios, (3) it identifies the quantitative knowledge gaps of the problem being discussed and (4) the threshold for non technicians to use this tool is quite low.Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Problem Structuring, Stakeholder Participation, Cognitive Mapping, Interactive Policy Making

Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know

Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way¿relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making¿because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts. Key words: adaptive management; ambiguity; frames; framing; knowledge relationship; multiple knowledge frames; natural resource management; negotiation; participation; social learning; uncertainty; water managemen

Taming Uncertainty in the Assurance Process of Self-Adaptive Systems: a Goal-Oriented Approach

Goals are first-class entities in a self-adaptive system (SAS) as they guide the self-adaptation. A SAS often operates in dynamic and partially unknown environments, which cause uncertainty that the SAS has to address to achieve its goals. Moreover, besides the environment, other classes of uncertainty have been identified. However, these various classes and their sources are not systematically addressed by current approaches throughout the life cycle of the SAS. In general, uncertainty typically makes the assurance provision of SAS goals exclusively at design time not viable. This calls for an assurance process that spans the whole life cycle of the SAS. In this work, we propose a goal-oriented assurance process that supports taming different sources (within different classes) of uncertainty from defining the goals at design time to performing self-adaptation at runtime. Based on a goal model augmented with uncertainty annotations, we automatically generate parametric symbolic formulae with parameterized uncertainties at design time using symbolic model checking. These formulae and the goal model guide the synthesis of adaptation policies by engineers. At runtime, the generated formulae are evaluated to resolve the uncertainty and to steer the self-adaptation using the policies. In this paper, we focus on reliability and cost properties, for which we evaluate our approach on the Body Sensor Network (BSN) implemented in OpenDaVINCI. The results of the validation are promising and show that our approach is able to systematically tame multiple classes of uncertainty, and that it is effective and efficient in providing assurances for the goals of self-adaptive systems

Risk Management in the Arctic Offshore: Wicked Problems Require New Paradigms

Recent project-management literature and high-profile disasters—the financial crisis, the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and the Fukushima nuclear accident—illustrate the flaws of traditional risk models for complex projects. This research examines how various groups with interests in the Arctic offshore define risks. The findings link the wicked problem framework and the emerging paradigm of Project Management of the Second Order (PM-2). Wicked problems are problems that are unstructured, complex, irregular, interactive, adaptive, and novel. The authors synthesize literature on the topic to offer strategies for navigating wicked problems, provide new variables to deconstruct traditional risk models, and integrate objective and subjective schools of risk analysis

Scientific instruments for climate change adaptation: estimating and optimizing the efficiency of ecosystem service provision

Adaptation to the consequences of climate change can depend on efficient use of ecosystem services (ES), i.e. a better use of natural services through management of the way in which they are delivered to society. While much discussion focuses on reducing consumption and increasing production of services, a lack of scientific instruments has so far prevented other mechanisms to improve ecosystem services efficiency from being addressed systematically as an adaptation strategy. This paper describes new methodologies for assessing ecosystem services and quantifying their values to humans, highlighting the role of ecosystem service flow analysis in optimizing the efficiency of ES provision.Ecosystem services, flow analysis, Bayesian modeling, spatial analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q01, Q54, Q55, Q57,

Needs and challenges for assessing the environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs).

The potential environmental impact of nanomaterials is a critical concern and the ability to assess these potential impacts is top priority for the progress of sustainable nanotechnology. Risk assessment tools are needed to enable decision makers to rapidly assess the potential risks that may be imposed by engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), particularly when confronted by the reality of limited hazard or exposure data. In this review, we examine a range of available risk assessment frameworks considering the contexts in which different stakeholders may need to assess the potential environmental impacts of ENMs. Assessment frameworks and tools that are suitable for the different decision analysis scenarios are then identified. In addition, we identify the gaps that currently exist between the needs of decision makers, for a range of decision scenarios, and the abilities of present frameworks and tools to meet those needs

Risk assessment and management of genetically modified organisms under Australia's Gene Technology Act:

"Compared to both Canada and the United States, Australia has been slow to approve commercial planting of transgenic crops. Two probable reasons exist for the slow approval rate of transgenic crops in Australia. The first reason is community perceptions about the risks associated with transgenic technologies. The second is the regulatory framework currently employed to approve commercial releases. This paper examines some of the potential regulatory issues that may be affecting the review process and approval of transgenic technologies. First we provide a brief introduction to the regulatory structure in Australia, second we consider the impact of regional, national and state jurisdictions, third we argue that the regulator needs to consider the use of benefits analysis in decision making, fourth we argue for the use of probabilistic risk assessments in certain circumstances, and fifth we look at potential problems inherent in majority voting in a committee and recommend alternatives." Authors' AbstractRisk assessment,