Uncertainty Management for Rule-Based Decision Support Systems

We present an uncertainty management scheme in rule-based systems for decision making in the domain of urban infrastructure. Our aim is to help end users make informed decisions. Human reasoning is prone to a certain degree of uncertainty but domain experts frequently find it difficult to quantify this precisely, and thus prefer to use qualitative (rather than quantitative) confidence levels to support their reasoning. Secondly, there is uncertainty in data when it is not currently available (missing). In order to incorporate human-like reasoning within rule-based systems we use qualitative confidence levels chosen by domain experts in urban infrastructure. We introduce a mechanism for the representation of confidence of input facts and inference rules, and for the computation of confidence in the inferred facts. We also present a mechanism for computing inferences in the presence of missing facts, and their effect on the confidence of inferred facts

A Prediction Model for Bank Loans Using Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering with Classification Approach

Businesses depend on banks for financing and other services. The success or failure of a company depends in large part on the ability of the industry to identify credit risk. As a result, banks must analyze whether or not a loan application will default in the future. To evaluate if a loan application was eligible for one, financial firms used highly competent personnel in the past. Machine learning algorithms and neural networks have been used to train class-sifters to forecast an individual's credit score based on their prior credit history, preventing loans from being provided to individuals who have failed on their obligations but these machine learning approaches require modification to solve difficulties such as class imbalance, noise, time complexity. Customers leaving a bank to go to a competitor is known as churn. Customers who can be predicted in advance to leave provide a firm an edge in client retention and growth. Banks may use machine learning to predict the behavior of trusted customers by assessing past data. To retain the trust of those clients, they may also introduce several unique deals. This study employed agglomerative hierarchical clustering, Decision Trees, and Random Forest Classification techniques. The data with decision tree obtained an accuracy of 84%, the data with the Random Forest obtained an accuracy of 85% and the clustered data passed through the agglomerative hierarchical clustering obtained an accuracy of 98.3% using random forest classifier and an accuracy of 98.1 % using decision tree classifier

Proceedings of the 2022 XCSP3 Competition

This document represents the proceedings of the 2022 XCSP3 Competition. The results of this competition of constraint solvers were presented at FLOC (Federated Logic Conference) 2022 Olympic Games, held in Haifa, Israel from 31th July 2022 to 7th August, 2022.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1901.0183

Recommender system in a non-stationary context: recommending job ads in pandemic times

International audienceThis paper focuses on the recommendation of job ads to job seekers, exploiting proprietary data from the French Public Employment Service (PES) and focusing more specifically on low or unskilled workers. Besides the usual challenges of data sparsity, the signal to noise ratio is high (few job seekers have diplomas), and scalability requirements are paramount.As a first contribution, a two-tiered approach is designed to handle these requirements; its empirical validation shows significant computational gains with no performance loss compared to boosted tree ensembles representative of the state of the art.A second contribution is a methodology aimed to assess the impact of the non-stationarity of the item and user distributions. Specifically, during the last three periods (before, during and after the Covid lock-downs), the numbers of job ads and job seekers dramatically vary in some industries. A normalized recall indicator is proposed to filter out the impact of variations of the number of job ads. This normalization suggests that the same score function adapts to the multi-faceted changes of the environment, resulting in different recommendations but with similar accuracy as before - at least for the job seekers finding a job

A Multi-Armed Bandit Model Selection for Cold-Start User Recommendation

International audienceHow can we effectively recommend items to a user about whom we have no information? This is the problem we focus on, known as the cold-start problem. In this paper, we focus on the cold user problem.In most existing works, the cold-start problem is handled through the use of many kinds of information available about the user. However, what happens if we do not have any information?Recommender systems usually keep a substantial amount of prediction models that are available for analysis. Moreover, recommendations to new users yield uncertain returns. Assuming a number of alternative prediction models is available to select items to recommend to a cold user, this paper introduces a multi-armed bandit based model selection, named PdMS.In comparison with two baselines, PdMS improves the performance as measured by the nDCG.These improvements are demonstrated on real, public datasets

Assessing and improving recommender systems to deal with user cold-start problem

Recommender systems are in our everyday life. The recommendation methods have as main purpose to predict preferences for new items based on userŠs past preferences. The research related to this topic seeks among other things to discuss user cold-start problem, which is the challenge of recommending to users with few or no preferences records. One way to address cold-start issues is to infer the missing data relying on side information. Side information of different types has been explored in researches. Some studies use social information combined with usersŠ preferences, others user click behavior, location-based information, userŠs visual perception, contextual information, etc. The typical approach is to use side information to build one prediction model for each cold user. Due to the inherent complexity of this prediction process, for full cold-start user in particular, the performance of most recommender systems falls a great deal. We, rather, propose that cold users are best served by models already built in system. In this thesis we propose 4 approaches to deal with user cold-start problem using existing models available for analysis in the recommender systems. We cover the follow aspects: o Embedding social information into traditional recommender systems: We investigate the role of several social metrics on pairwise preference recommendations and provide the Ąrst steps towards a general framework to incorporate social information in traditional approaches. o Improving recommendation with visual perception similarities: We extract networks connecting users with similar visual perception and use them to come up with prediction models that maximize the information gained from cold users. o Analyzing the beneĄts of general framework to incorporate networked information into recommender systems: Representing different types of side information as a user network, we investigated how to incorporate networked information into recommender systems to understand the beneĄts of it in the context of cold user recommendation. o Analyzing the impact of prediction model selection for cold users: The last proposal consider that without side information the system will recommend to cold users based on the switch of models already built in system. We evaluated the proposed approaches in terms of prediction quality and ranking quality in real-world datasets under different recommendation domains. The experiments showed that our approaches achieve better results than the comparison methods.Tese (Doutorado)Sistemas de recomendação fazem parte do nosso dia-a-dia. Os métodos usados nesses sistemas tem como objetivo principal predizer as preferências por novos itens baseado no perĄl do usuário. As pesquisas relacionadas a esse tópico procuram entre outras coisas tratar o problema do cold-start do usuário, que é o desaĄo de recomendar itens para usuários que possuem poucos ou nenhum registro de preferências no sistema. Uma forma de tratar o cold-start do usuário é buscar inferir as preferências dos usuários a partir de informações adicionais. Dessa forma, informações adicionais de diferentes tipos podem ser exploradas nas pesquisas. Alguns estudos usam informação social combinada com preferências dos usuários, outros se baseiam nos clicks ao navegar por sites Web, informação de localização geográĄca, percepção visual, informação de contexto, etc. A abordagem típica desses sistemas é usar informação adicional para construir um modelo de predição para cada usuário. Além desse processo ser mais complexo, para usuários full cold-start (sem preferências identiĄcadas pelo sistema) em particular, a maioria dos sistemas de recomendação apresentam um baixo desempenho. O trabalho aqui apresentado, por outro lado, propõe que novos usuários receberão recomendações mais acuradas de modelos de predição que já existem no sistema. Nesta tese foram propostas 4 abordagens para lidar com o problema de cold-start do usuário usando modelos existentes nos sistemas de recomendação. As abordagens apresentadas trataram os seguintes aspectos: o Inclusão de informação social em sistemas de recomendação tradicional: foram investigados os papéis de várias métricas sociais em um sistema de recomendação de preferências pairwise fornecendo subsidíos para a deĄnição de um framework geral para incluir informação social em abordagens tradicionais. o Uso de similaridade por percepção visual: usando a similaridade por percepção visual foram inferidas redes, conectando usuários similares, para serem usadas na seleção de modelos de predição para novos usuários. o Análise dos benefícios de um framework geral para incluir informação de redes de usuários em sistemas de recomendação: representando diferentes tipos de informação adicional como uma rede de usuários, foi investigado como as redes de usuários podem ser incluídas nos sistemas de recomendação de maneira a beneĄciar a recomendação para usuários cold-start. o Análise do impacto da seleção de modelos de predição para usuários cold-start: a última abordagem proposta considerou que sem a informação adicional o sistema poderia recomendar para novos usuários fazendo a troca entre os modelos já existentes no sistema e procurando aprender qual seria o mais adequado para a recomendação. As abordagens propostas foram avaliadas em termos da qualidade da predição e da qualidade do ranking em banco de dados reais e de diferentes domínios. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que as abordagens propostas atingiram melhores resultados que os métodos do estado da arte

Big data analytics and mining for effective visualization and trends forecasting of crime data.

Big data analytics (BDA) is a systematic approach for analyzing and identifying different patterns, relations, and trends within a large volume of data. In this paper, we apply BDA to criminal data where exploratory data analysis is conducted for visualization and trends prediction. Several the state-of-the-art data mining and deep learning techniques are used. Following statistical analysis and visualization, some interesting facts and patterns are discovered from criminal data in San Francisco, Chicago, and Philadelphia. The predictive results show that the Prophet model and Keras stateful LSTM perform better than neural network models, where the optimal size of the training data is found to be three years. These promising outcomes will benefit for police departments and law enforcement organizations to better understand crime issues and provide insights that will enable them to track activities, predict the likelihood of incidents, effectively deploy resources and optimize the decision making process

Possibilistic networks: MAP query and computational analysis

International audienc