Responsiveness and Seasonal Demand in Cold-Chain Production-Distribution Network

[[abstract]]由於產品特性所造成市場需求的強烈變化，企業在面對季節性商品的瞬間需求時，即便需求已知且產能足夠，仍然發生大量的缺貨。製造商在面對生產季節性產品時，必須考慮應儲備多少產能與在多早以前的淡季就開始生產。通路商則因產品的保存期限與倉庫的容量限制，需考慮產品的訂購數量、存放時間、儲存位置及如何鋪貨以防止缺貨並滿足在旺季時瞬間爆量的需求。 本研究應用加入季節性因素 (seasonal factor)的最佳化動態分配選址模型，將此季節性生產與配銷網路建構為線性的混合整數規劃。模型中包含製造商、配銷中心及顧客。在滿足所有假設的條件下，由模式自行選擇最佳的配銷中心位置及季節性商品庫存量與配銷量，以最小化製造商與通路商的總成本。 本研究針對產品的需求建立一個在時間上集中程度的指標，並利用該指標探討不同集中程度對缺貨的影響，發現產品的季節性越強，在時間上集中的程度越大，所造成的缺貨數量也就越多。接著，利用加入季節性因子的生產與配銷模型模擬企業直觀建立的物流網路與最佳化數學模式求解的比較。最後，針對求解結果進行改善並提出建議。[[abstract]]Even if the demand is known and the factory capacity is full when the enterprises in the face of seasonal demand of products it still makes a lot of shortages Manufacturers must consider how much capacity should reserve and how early to start to produce when they produce seasonal products Due to the shelf life of products and the warehouse capacity constraints distributors need to consider the number of products ordered storage time storage location and how to prevent stock to meet the seasonal demand during the peak season In this study we use the optimal dynamic allocation model which adding seasonal factor to build this seasonal production-distribution network as a linear mixed-integer programming The model contains manufacturers distribution centers and customers Under the assumption that meet all the conditions the mode choose the optimal distribution center location seasonal product inventory and the number of distribution in their own choice in order to minimize the total cost of the manufacturers and distributor

[[alternative]]The multi-objective facility location problem with integrated inventory control and logistics network issues

碩士[[abstract]]本研究主要探討大型量販店物流網路之區位定址問題，並加入供應商管理庫存策略，並整合了供應鏈供應商選擇、庫存控制與運輸等供應鏈中重要議題，以兩階層的供應鏈為例，由供應商將商品成品運送至配銷中心，配銷中心再將商品成品送至消費者手中。 由於本模式所考量的目標為總成本最小、服務回應率最大、商品訂單達交率等三大目標，並非單一的目標，所以我們使用了基因遺傳演算法(NSGA-II)求解混合非線性整數規劃問題，並採行兩個貪婪法則來使用基因遺傳演算法求取柏拉圖最佳解。 依據所建立問題之混合式基因演算法所寫的MATLAB程式進行相關的進行模式求解與數據分析，以便能瞭解數學規劃模式中相關參數與不同因子的變化，對於整合性物流網路選址問題當中之最適解所產生的影響性。 最後，我們設計了不同情境，將不同目標函數賦予不同的權重值，以得知對於不同目標函數權重的情境明顯會影響配銷中心的地點設置之決策，再由決策者依據所得的結果選擇適合的方案，最後再把成本項細分為六項，探討各項成本的影響程度。[[abstract]]The study focused on the Facility Location Problem (FLP) problem in a logistics network for a large retail store in Taiwan. We also add in the VMI strategy and also provide the solutions for the supplier selection, inventory control, and transportation decisions. Using a two-stage supply chain with as an example, the suppliers send product to distribution centers (DCs) and DCs send products to consumers.Because the goal of our three objective are to make the total cost smallest, Responsiveness Level biggest and volume fill rate biggest, not single objective, so we use NSGA-II to solve mixed nonlinear integer programming problem and take two greedy approach to use heuristic genetic algorithm and find the optimal solution of Pareto. According to the established model and we used the software of MATLAB to solve and analyzed the data, then we can understand the change of our model’s parameters and different factors, than we can realize the effects of the optimal Pareto solutions. Finally, we designed several different conditions and distributed different weight to different objective, so we can know different condition would obviously affect the strategy of facility location, than the decision maker could accord to the result and found a solution. After we got the result, we divided the total cost into six items of cost, and tried to know the impact of the six different items.[[tableofcontents]]目錄 頁次 目錄 I 圖目錄 III 表目錄 V 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 5 1.3 研究範圍與限制 6 1.4 研究流程與架構大綱 8 第二章 文獻探討 10 2.1 設施區位定址問題 10 2.1.1 設施區位定址之基本概念 10 2.1.2 設施區位定址問題與銷售物流網路設計 13 2.2 供應商管理庫存(Vender Managed Inventory) 15 2.2.1 庫存政策 15 2.2.2 供應商管理庫存定義與基本概念 17 2.2.3 供應商管理庫存VMI的效益 20 2.2.4 供應鏈管理庫存VMI之阻礙 21 2.3 整合性供應鏈模式 23 2.4 多目標規劃法(Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm) 29 2.4.1 多目標規劃法之基本概念 29 2.4.2 柏拉圖最佳化基本概念 30 2.4.3 傳統多目標規劃法 32 2.5 多目標遺傳演算法 35 2.5.1 第一代多目標遺傳演算法 36 2.5.2第二代多目標遺傳演算法 37 第三章 模式建構 39 3.1 模型之基本架構想法 39 3.2 研究問題與假設 43 3.3 模型之建構與求解 46 3.3.1 模型符號說明 46 3.3.2 模型之目標函數 48 3.3.3 整合庫存控制與銷售物流網路之多目標設址模式 54 3.4 小結 56 第四章 問題求解方法 57 4.1 多目標基因遺傳演算法 57 4.2 第二代非支配基因演算法(NSGA-II) 58 4.3 求解方法 61 第五章 案例設計與分析 66 5.1 案例設計說明 66 5.2 案例求解 71 5.3 案例分析 72 第六章 結論與建議 83 6.1 研究結論 83 6.2 管理意涵 84 6.3 未來研究方向與建議 86 參考文獻 88 附錄 97 圖目錄 頁次 圖1-1 物流基本架構 2 圖1-2 本研究流程架構 8 圖2-1 銷售設計網路中的四個戰略計劃 14 圖2-2 基本商業模式與VMI商業模式之比較 18 圖2-3 VMI概念架構圖 19 圖2-4 整合性供應鏈模式 23 圖2-5 柏拉圖最適解集合 31 圖2-6 傳統多目標規劃法 33 圖3-1 設置於採購地區之物流中心架構 40 圖3-2設置於賣場地區之物流中心架構 40 圖3-3設置於兩端之物流中心架構 41 圖3-4 設立於同一區域之物流中心架構 42 圖3-5 本研究之分銷網路系統架構圖 43 圖3-6數學模型之概念圖形 48 圖3-7 集合覆蓋問題 52 圖4-1 典型的基因遺傳演算法架構 57 圖4-2 非支配解排序過程 59 圖4-3 NSGA II的演算流程 59 圖4-4 混合式基因遺傳演算流程圖 61 圖4-5 基因編碼之後的染色體 64 圖5-1 案例之物流架構 66 圖5-2演算法第一代與第三次演算結果 71 圖5-3 演算法前1/4與最後一代演算結果 71 圖5-4 情境一(以成本為主)最佳解選址結果 78 圖5-5 情境二、三(以消費者滿意度為主)最佳解選址結果 78 圖5-6情境四(三個目標偏好程度一致)最佳解選址結果 79 表目錄 頁次 表2-1 VMI效益之文獻 20 表2-2 多目標確定性模式研究文獻 24 表2-3 傳統多目標最佳化方法 33 表5-1 案例之供應商 67 表5-2 案例之配銷中心(DC) 67 表5-3 案例之消費者來源 67 表5-4柏拉圖前緣解與決策結果74 表5-5 第6、19、27組解對應之目標函數值 - 76 - 表5-6 不同情境之下之柏拉圖最佳解與對應參數 - 77 - 表5-7 柏拉圖前緣解之成本項目百分比 - 79 -[[note]]學號: 697620242, 學年度: 9

供應鏈之零售商訂購決策與配銷商運輸配送決策整合模式之研究：單期效用之產品

The goals of firms along a supply chain are usually contradictory with each other. For example, firms at the retailing stage ask for higher transportation frequency from their immediate upstream counterparts to maximize profits as well as reduce the inventory level; however, firms at the wholesaling or distributing stage prefer lower transportation frequency for their distribution on immediate downstream firms to minimize transportation cost. In this paper, assuming a supply chain adopts a vendor-managed inventory strategy, we propose a model to integrate retailers' inventory decisions and distributors' transportation decisions, simultaneously. The decision variables in the model include inventory quantities sending from warehouses to retailing sites. We consider a one-period utility product, and assume shortage as well as overage costs exist. As to customer demands faced by retailers, we characterize them in the model as deterministic, stochastic, and fuzzy, respectively. To solve the model efficiently, we design a genetic algorithm (GA), which demonstrates superior ability in searching for the global optimum in a solution space with possible local optimums. We also compare profits between retailers and distributors under different settings of model parameters.在一個供應鏈體系之中，成員的目標通常是相互矛盾的；舉例來說，在零售階段的廠商希望能壓低向上游供應商購買成品的採購成本；然而，批發階段或製造階段的廠商卻想對下游廠商制訂高價格。在本篇論文裡，假設供應鏈採用供應商管理存貨的方案，提出一個模型同時整合了零售商的存貨決策與配銷商的運輸決策。模型的決策變數是從配銷中心運送到零售點的運輸量。論文中考慮了只有單期效用的產品，存在過剩成本及短缺成本。至於零售商面對的客戶需求，我們分別探討了確定已知的、隨機的及模糊的三種形式。為了有效的求解，我們設計了一個基因演算法（GA），此演算法展現了在解空間中尋求最佳解的優越能力。最後，在三種情況下我們設定不同的模型參數比較零售商及供應商的個別利潤。誌謝 I Acknowlegements II Abstract III Table of Contents IV List of Figures VI List of Tables VII Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1. 1 Motivation 1 1. 2 Purpose 3 Chapter 2 Literature Review 4 Single-Period Problem 4 Transportation Decision Problem 5 Integrated Inventory and Transportation Problem 6 Revenue Sharing in a Supply Chain 7 Property of the Goods Discussed 7 Chapter 3 Model Formulation and Solution Procedure 9 3. 1 Problem Statement 9 3. 2 Basic Assumptions 10 3. 3 Derived Steps for the Models 10 3. 3. 1 Case One: Deterministic Demands 10 3. 3. 2 Case Two: Stochastic Demands 12 3. 3. 3 Case Three: Fuzzy Demands 13 3. 3. 3. 1 Fuzzy Theory 13 3. 3. 3. 2 Profit Model Formulation for Case Three 18 3. 4 Models Solved by GA 23 3. 4. 1 Introduction to GA 23 3. 4. 2 Implementation Procedures of GA 24 3. 4. 2. 1 Coding and Decoding 25 3. 4. 2. 2 Fitness function 25 3. 4. 2. 3 Reproduction 26 3. 4. 2. 4 Crossover 26 3. 4. 2. 5 Mutation 27 3. 4. 2. 6 Elitism 27 3. 4. 2. 7 Solution Procedure 27 3. 4. 2. 8 Approaches of Handling Constrained Optimization Problems 28 3. 4. 2. 9 GA Parameter Setting 32 3. 4. 3 Solution Procedures 32 Representation 34 Step 1: Initialization 34 Step 2: Evaluation with Penalty Term 34 Step 3: Convergence 34 Step 4: Reproduction 34 Step 5: Crossover 35 Step 6: Mutation 35 Step 7: Iterate Step 4 through Step 6 for k/2 Times. 35 Step 8: Elitism 35 Step 9: Stop. 35 Chapter 4 Numerical Analysis 36 4. 1 Parameters Setting 36 4. 2 The Profit Comparison under Three Different Cases 37 4. 3 Sensitivity Analysis 37 4. 3. 1 Comparison of the Impacts on the Whole Supply Chain of Cost Parameters’ changes 38 4. 3. 2 Comparison of the Impacts on the Individual Profit of Cost Parameters’ Changes 41 4. 3. 3 Comparison of the Three Costs Change under Three Cases 47 Case One: Deterministic Demands 47 Case Two: Stochastic Demands 48 Case Three: Fuzzy Demands 49 Chapter 5 Conclusions 50 Conclusions 50 Research Limitations 50 Further Research Recommendation 51 References 52 Appendix 1: Case One by GA Method 54 Appendix 2: Case Two by GA Method 66 Appendix 3: Case Three by GA Method 7

亞太物流中心資訊建設規劃之研究

目前全球的經濟發展，除了美日歐三強權之外，已經形成了許多區域性的經濟圈。而亞太地區更可以說是全球企業競爭之地。推動台灣成為亞太營運中心是政府的政策，其主要目標之一就是要吸引跨國企業在台灣設置其亞太地區的營運總部。亞太營運中心包含建立六大中心，其中海運轉運中心及空運轉運中心的建立主要係鑑於發展轉口業務可不受幅員及腹地的限制。但實際上，若僅發展貨物之轉口業務，對國家整體收益的提升有限，故應可進一步利用商流帶來更高的附加價值。另外國際採購有前置時間太長、採購程序繁雜，每次均需訂購大量導致存貨、資金積壓等問題，如果能利用物流業的特性－亦即多頻率少量的訂貨配送方式，則可降低企業進行國際採購的複雜性並提高對市場的反應靈活度。基於這個想法，結合台灣之物流業及相關產業來解決東南亞及大陸地區的國際採購問題，除了可以真正利用商流來增進國家收益外，更可進一步的掌握亞太地區貨物的通路，而在廿一世紀中，誰掌握了通路，誰就掌握了市場。因此，建立台灣成為亞太物流中心實為國家整體發展值得努力的方向。本研究首先進行相關文獻的探討以瞭解現今國際物流研究的程度與方向，另外就物流相關體系的現況進行瞭解，從現況中得知問題點．並提出亞太物流中心的構想。此構想即是希望台灣成為亞太地區的收發貨配銷中心，進而掌控東南亞及大陸地區的通路，也就是讓東南亞及大陸地區進口貨物，可以向台灣直接下單，而我們能以多頻率少量的配送方式將貨物快速送達客戶手中，而該地區出口的貨物亦可由台灣多次少量的收集整合後輸出。而唯有透過資訊科技的輔助及資訊環境的建立，亞太物流中心的構想才得以實現。資訊運作的架構設計與運作模式，首先要說明的是基本理念，基於此理念，才能導出整體的架構設計、功能及運作。就功能的部份，分為工商產業服務、運輸倉儲服務、通關服務及金融服務四大項，由此功能再反觀目前台灣現正進行的資訊系統建設，即發覺整體物流的資訊環境需要整合現有的資訊系統，唯有透過整合，才能連結相關的產業並提供整體運作的資訊共享環境，以支持亞太物流中心的構想

An Integrated Framework for the Logistics Facilities System Evaluation Problem

[[abstract]]進入1980 年代以後，隨著國際貿易的盛行，全球化採購的活絡與核心競爭力的保持，建立一個講求產業分工和專長整合的供應鏈體系遂成為許多企業體強化自身優勢的選擇。在整個供應鏈體系中，物流設施（如採購中心、生產中心和配銷中心等）的設置規劃是一個極重要的研究課題。一個以上的物流設施構成一個物流設施系統，其相關因素包含設施功能、設施數目、設置地點、容量大小、任務分工和管理關聯性（如存貨控制方式、輸配送方式等）。由於其相關要素眾多且彼此關聯性常有回饋現象發生，如何推導一個物流設施系統設計架構便成為極大的挑戰，因此，傳統研究大都將其簡化為設施區位選擇且將之以數學規劃模式求解。因此，許多重要因素暫時忽略不列入考慮。同時，若是在設計階段存在一個以上的設計方案時，傳統研究結果中亦缺乏系統化方法去評判孰優孰劣；因此，本研究擬建立一個系統化的評估架構，協助決策者評估如何在現有的多數設計方案中找出適合的方案，以作為企業選擇最適物流設施系統方案之法則。本研究之評估架構主要分為程序評估與因素評估二階段。在程序評估部分，著重於評估設計過程，目的在篩選滿足企業主基本要求之設計方案；而在因素評估部分，著重於評估設計結果，目的在從通過篩選的設計方案中，判斷何者具有較佳的設計效果，能以更有效率的方式滿足需求；評估內容包括評估項目的界定、評估準則的建立以及整合評判方法的應用，以多評準決策概念(Multiple Criteria DecisionMaking, MCDM)為基礎，結合層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)、模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory)等方法建構方案評選模式。主要利用層級分析法(AHP)構建物流設施系統方案評估之層級架構，以模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy AHP)求算各準則之權重，再利用模糊綜合評判法求算各方案之最終評價值，最後透過解模糊化值之排序，選擇最適方案。最後，以一綜合個案驗證本研究方案評估架構的適用性。[[abstract]]Facilities planning has been one of the major research fields since 1950s. Two groups of the research interest focus on the single facility design and multiple facilities system design. The past research efforts in the second group shows two results. First, the multiple facility system was usually investigated with the operational research method and used the mathematical model of location decision problem. Second, most of the results belong to the design phase and the problem was usually simplified to select an optimal solution under the rigirous assumptions. Therefore, very few research results are in the evaluation phase to select a preferred design alternative given several design alternatives. Thus, this research proposes a methodology to solve the multiple facilities system evaluation problem to overcome the previous deficiencies. It includes two evaluation stages, i.e., process evaluation stage and factor evaluation stage stated as follows: 1. The evaluators usually ignores or failed to notice the design process, thus, the basic requirements of facilities system set up in the initial stage are used to be hidden and could not be observed from the design results. The process evaluation stage is to question the designers about the design steps and examine which design alternatives satisfy these basic requirements or not. 2. The design alternatives pass the process evaluation stage are forwarded to the factor evaluation stage. An evaluation methodology is set up by adopting the AHP and fuzzy theory. A criteria set is also identified to include three groups of criteria. This stage is to select which alternative satisfy the system requirements in the most preferred way. Then, a synthetic case is used to show the application process of the evaluation methodology.[[note]]NSC89-2213-E327-01

Strategic marketing analysis of transition From OEM to OBM: a case study of DAPHNE

縱觀台灣過去產業發展史，多數公司由代工起家，歷經多年的經驗，擁有優異的生產製造能力。當中國大陸躍升為世界工廠後，其低廉的生產成本競爭優勢，讓外國的大廠趨之若鶩，於是台灣企業開始思考如何不再靠賺取微薄代工利潤來經營，而是藉由自創品牌來提升自己的競爭力。然而，自創品牌的想法固然不錯，但是能夠真正將品牌經營成功的企業卻是少數。其中，台灣製鞋業受到中國大陸低廉的生產成本所影響，導致許多製鞋廠倒閉或是轉往其他國家設廠以求生存。本研究的個案對象就是當初因成本壓力，因而前往中國大陸設廠的製鞋企業─達芙妮。 本研究文獻探討著重在三個部分：品牌、代工與自創品牌、策略行銷4C理論。利用邱志聖(2006)策略行銷4C的四大構面：外顯單位效益成本、資訊搜尋成本、道德危機成本及專屬陷入成本，來研究中國大陸女鞋領導品牌達芙妮。本研究將達芙妮的發展軌跡分為五階段，分別為全代工、品牌草創、自建通路、品牌滲透、品牌擴張等五個時期。透過策略行銷4C架構，分析各階段具體作為的策略意涵，並歸納各階段發展的側重點，研究實務個案與理論架構之異同。 本研究歸納出以下結論：一、全代工時期的關鍵在於解決外顯單位效益成本。達芙妮透過及早轉移生產基地，降低生產成本，成功獲得客戶的訂單；二、品牌自創時期的關鍵在於解決資訊搜尋成本。達芙妮藉由舉辦展銷會與積極參展，成功吸引通路商願意銷售產品給最終消費者；三、品牌自建通路期的關鍵在於解決資訊搜尋成本。達芙妮減少透過通路商銷售，而是靠自建通路直接與最終消費者接觸。四、品牌滲透期的關鍵在於解決外顯單位效益成本與資訊搜尋成本。達芙妮透過建立配銷中心、整合設計團隊及密集展店方式，達到深耕市場的目標。五、品牌擴張期的關鍵在於解決外顯單位效益成本。將自己定位於流行產業的達芙妮，提供多樣化產品滿足消費者日新月異的需求。 關鍵字：代工、自創品牌、策略行銷4CWhen viewing industry development history in Taiwan, most companies started from original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and have developed manufacturing capability. When China became world factories because of its low cost competitive advantage, a lot of companies transferred their factories to China. As a result, Taiwan’s companies started to change the business model from OEM to OBM to earn more profit. Many companies in Taiwan’s shoe industry were impacted by low cost competitive advantage in China, and thus they went into bankruptcy or transferred factories to other countries to survive. The case “DAPHNE” in the study was the shoe company pressured by production cost and transferred factories to China at that time. Literature review in the study has three parts: brand, OEM&OBM, Strategic Marketing 4C theory. Utilizing Chiu’s (2006) Strategic Marketing 4C framework examines China leading female shoe company DAPHNE. The study separates development track of DAPHNE into five stages: OEM, brand introduction, construction of stores, brand penetration, brand expansion. Using Strategic Marketing 4C framework understands strategic meaning in key strategies, summarizes key action in each stage, and examines the difference between reality and theory. The research shows following conclusions: First, the key success factor in OEM stage is that DAPHNE transferred its factories as soon as possible to decline production cost to get orders; Second, the key success factor in brand introduction stage is that DAPHNE attracted dealer by holding trade fairs to sell products to end users; third, the key success factor in construction of stores is that DAPHNE built direct selling stores to communicate with end users; fourth, the key success factor in brand penetration is that DAPHNE built distributor centers, integrated design teams, and expanded stores intensively to penetrate China market; fifth, the key success factor in brand expansion is that DAPHNE provided various products to fulfill consumers’ diverse demands. Key Words: OEM, OBM, Strategic Marketing 4

Developing an evaluation framework for logistics facilities system

[[abstract]]進入1980年代以後，隨著國際貿易的盛行，全球化採購的活絡與核心競爭力的保持，建立一個講求產業分工和專長整合的供應鏈體系遂成為許多企業體強化自身優勢的選擇。在整個供應鏈體系中，物流設施（如採購中心、生產中心和配銷中心等）的設置規劃是一個極重要的研究課題，一個以上的物流設施即構成一個物流設施系統，其相關組成因素包含設施功能、設施數目、設置地點、容量大小、任務分工和管理關聯性（如存貨控制方式、輸配送方式等）。由於其相關要素眾多且彼此關聯性常有回饋現象發生，如何推導一個物流設施系統設計架構便成為極大的挑戰，所以傳統研究大都將其簡化為設施區位選擇且將之以數學規劃模式求解，因此，許多重要因素暫時忽略不列入考慮。同時，若是在設計階段存在一個以上的設計方案時，傳統研究結果中亦缺乏系統化方法去評判孰優孰劣；故本研究擬建立一個系統化的方案評估架構，協助決策者評估如何在現有的多數設計方案中找出適合的方案，以作為企業選擇最適物流設施系統方案之依據。 本研究之評估架構主要分為程序評估與因素評估二階段。在程序評估部分，著重於評估設計過程，目的在篩選滿足企業主基本要求之設計方案；而在因素評估部分，著重於評估設計結果，目的在從通過篩選的設計方案中，判斷何者具有較佳的設計效果，能以更有效率的方式滿足需求；評估內容包括評估項目的界定、評估準則的建立以及整合評判方法的應用，以多評準決策概念(Multiple Criteria Decision Making, MCDM)為基礎，結合層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)、模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory)等方法建構方案評選模式。主要利用層級分析法(AHP)構建物流設施系統方案評估之層級架構，以模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy AHP)求算各準則之權重，再利用模糊綜合評判法求算各方案之最終評價值，最後透過解模糊化值之排序，選擇最適方案。最後，以單設施及多設施各一綜合個案，驗證本研究方案評估架構的使用性，結果發現各方案在決策者主觀認定下，確有優劣差異之表現。 本研究主要針對物流設施系統規劃設計階段所產生之方案，探討系統方案評選之問題，期能補足傳統研究之不足，提供管理者和使用者一套有系統且合理、客觀的評估架構與法則。[[abstract]]Since the period of 1980s, the global competition was quickly expanded and most of the enterprises focused on developing new manufacturing technology in order to reduce production cost and improve product quality. However, the progress in manufacturing technology also reached to its saturation stage in 1990s since most of the countries had access to the similar level of manufacturing technology with the similar efforts. Therefore, the global competition began a new era and focused on how to distribute the goods and products to the customers in the most quick and efficient way. That is, the logistics stage before and after the manufacturing stage began to receive most attention. A lot of needs focus on how to develop and establish a logistics facilities system for the enterprise. Thus, this research presents a hierarchical planning structure for a logistics facilities system. It includes five aspects, that is, identify the role of facilities system aspect, collect and analyze information aspect, create plans of logistics facilities system aspect, evaluate and select the plan aspect, enforce and manage the plan aspect. This study focus on plans evaluation and selection. Previous research lacked a solid framework for evaluate the multiple-criteria facilities system. Consequently, this study aims to establish a systematized evaluation framework for logistics facilities system. The evaluation framework includes two aspects, that is, judge a plan by its design process and by its design outcome. This research applies Checklist to judge a plan’s design process and applies Fuzzy multiple criterion decision-making (FMCDM) to construct a model for evaluating and selecting logistics facilities system. In the model, we propose a 3-level hierarchy structure to present the relationship of all the factors and a Fuzzy weight model to distinguish importation of all the factors. Therefore, the results in this research can be used as a decision aid to help establish a facility system to cooperate with the logistics management needs

A Collaborative System for Sales Forecast

在全球化激烈競爭的市場中，產品生命週期不斷縮短，供應商的選擇性不再侷限於國內，對於海外的供應商也會是考慮的範疇，在財務上，除了要積極的拓展業績開源之外，如何能夠壓低製造成本，配銷成本或者是庫存成本，也成為一家公司是否能夠持續獲利的關鍵因素。一項產品的製造，需要由供應端提供原物料，透過運輸並存放於公司的倉儲，由倉儲提取原料開始生產，成品最後被放入成品倉，等待訂單並且配送，配送有可能透過海運或空運到達客戶端，這些經過的點或設施，以及使用的運輸工具都是SCM (Supply Chain Management) 所需考慮的環節，每個點或設施通常與上下游的設施或運輸方式都有複雜的依存關係，我們稱呼這些由設施與彼此連結的複雜關係為物流網路(Logistics Network)，物流網路包含供應商、倉庫、配銷中心、零售商以及流通在各設施中的原物料、再製品存貨、成品等，也就是從原料取得到生產最後配銷到零售商的流程，如何在每一個環節提升效率並且管控成本但是又不失產品的品質，是我們一再努力的。 成霖企業主要產品是衛浴設備，包含：水龍頭、臉盆、馬桶以及衛浴配件等，產品有成千上萬種，每一項產品的生產都需要向供應商下單以取得生產用料，那麼該下多少量，多久下一次，是否有經濟批量或者最小訂購量(MOQ, Minimum Order Quantity)，是不是已經有在途的存貨，這些都是下單時所需考量的問題。為此，我們引進了Wolverine Inc.的DCM (Demand Chain Management) System，並且依據公司的需求，適度的客製演算法並且調整流程以符合公司所需，目前，已藉由此系統產出系統預測與下單量，文中會介紹我們開發團隊所使用的預測流程。然而，工具只是一種輔助工具，如何降低庫存成本，必須從過高的安全庫存量著手，而安全庫存量又與預測準確度息息相關，所以，提升預測準確率變成我們目前的首要之務。因此，我們需要有一套方法，不僅可以精確的計算銷售預測，同時也能夠檢討預測流程中各部門人員的預測準確率，以求整體提升我們的預測準確率，又能夠確保庫存水準是安全的。以下是我們團隊採用的產品銷售預測流程以及我們所提出的預測準確率的分析方法以及商業智慧(BI, Business Intelligent)平台在提升預測準確率的研究，目前已在本公司採用並且已經有顯著的改善。In the competitive global market, the period of product life cycle is getting shorter and shorter. In order to reduce the overall product cost, suppliers needed to be deployed not only in-country but also around the globe. When it comes to supplier solicitation, we need to consider the transportation cost, procurement cost and inventory cost. We should be able to maximize the margin by taking all these cost factors into account. However, this is not an easy target to reach. When a good being produced, suppliers take the roles to provide raw material by truck, rail, sea or air to our warehouse, then we use these raw materials to make the parts or finished-goods. Some of the finished-goods will be distributed to customer or retailer's site, and rest of them will be stored in finished-goods warehouses. All the suppliers, factories, warehouses, distribution centers and sales channel are connected to each other. They are all the points that SCM should considered, and we call the facilities “logistics network”. All we have to do is to improve the service levels and control the costs between each node in the network. Globe Union Inc. is a company that produces faucet and bathroom product, when thousands of products are ordered or produced, the company needs to place purchase orders to the suppliers to get raw materials. Under the circumstances we should consider how many quantities should be ordered, how much lead time of the products will be produced and transferred to retailer or wholesaler channel, MOQ (Minimum Order Quantity) and lot-size are also the item attributes we should consider. We use DCM system and customized it to fulfill our purpose. For now it can help us to organize all the data and generate demand forecast and replenishment recommendations. Due to the long lead time between factories and distribution center (around 1 month to 3 months), we usually set higher safety stock level to prevent the inventory shortage in the past. However, in order to reduce the inventory cost we should lower the safety stock level. This will lead to the forecast accuracy of the inventory safety stocks. For this reason we proposed several methods to try to improve the forecast accuracy of active products and new products.一、 研究背景 9 (一)、 公司基本資料 9 (二)、 北美銷售市場通路以及組織架構 10 (三)、 漫長的補貨前置時間 11 (四)、 預測的瓶頸 11 (五)、 採取的策略 12 (六)、 關於這篇論文 12 二、 相關研究 14 (一)、 Simple Moving Average 14 (二)、 Centered Moving Average 15 (三)、 Henderson Moving Average (HMA) 15 (四)、 Exponential Smoothing 16 (五)、 Simple Exponential Smoothing(SES) 17 (六)、 Linear Exponential Smoothing (LES) 18 (七)、 X11 Seasonality 19 三、 改善預測流程 24 (一)、 預測計畫的建立與預測流程的推行 24 (二)、 新產品的預測監控與改善 36 (三)、 Impact Jobs 40 (四)、 預測結果的檢討 (Forecast Accuracy) 42 (五)、 Binary Accuracy (二分法準確率) 46 四、 具體的實行結果 51 (一)、 Impact Jobs預測準確率的BI分析 51 (二)、 NPR預測準確率的BI分析 54 (三)、 Forecast Accuracy BI Platform 56 (四)、 整體預測準確率的改善 57 五、 結論 61 六、 參考文獻 62 (一)、 中文部分 62 (二)、 西文部分 6