Bunt, Peter (1862 - 1913)

This biographical summary was created by the Works Progress Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1939

Meyer, Michael M. (1862 - 1913)

This biographical summary was created by the Works Progress Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1939

Identifying International Business Cycles in Disaggregate Data: Germany, France and Great Britain

This article analyzes international business cycles in Europe 1862-1913 using disaggregated data and Dynamic Factor Analysis. In comparison with estimates of real national product there is more evidence for international business cycles in disaggregated data of Germany, France and Great Britain before World War I. This is because data used to construct historical national accounts are often not sufficient to date business cycles, and especially because little is known about general price fluctuations. Thus, national products in current prices show higher degrees of international correlation than deflated ones although price indices themselves are not very well correlated across countries.International Business Cycles, Historical National Accounting, Disaggregate Data, Dynamic Factor Models

Münchhausens Abenteuer in Bildern von Oskar Herrfurth

Die „Wunderbaren Reisen zu Wasser und zu Lande, Feldzüge und lustige Abenteuer des Freiherrn von Münchhausen, wie er dieselben bei der Flasche im Zirkel seiner Freunde selbst zu erzählen pflegt“, die sprichwörtlich gewordenen „Münchhausiaden“, werden im Goethezeitportal in Illustrationen verschiedener Künstler vorgestellt. Die erste Postkartenserie von Oskar von Herrfurth (1862-1913) wird hier durch eine zweite Folge mit weiteren 6 Lügengeschichten ergänzt. Wiederum gelingen dem Künstler effektvolle und witzige Umsetzungen ins Bild

Sagasta, Melilla, Cuba

Copia digital : IES "Cervantes"., 201

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy

In this paper we investigate the link between government debt-to-GDP ratio and real per capita income growth in Italy over 1861-2009. We model our regression analysis on a standard production function. Our results support the hypotheses of a negative relation between public debt and growth and of a stronger effect of foreign debt compared to domestic debt before World War I. The effect of public debt on growth appears to work mainly through reduced investment. These results help explain the different reaction of per capita GDP growth to the debt-ratio over 1880-1914 (when the negative correlation between the two variables is particularly strong) and 1985-2007 (when the correlation appears to break down when debt starts declining). A descriptive analysis of fiscal policy in these two periods suggests that differences in the timing of fiscal consolidation as well as in the size and composition of the budget are additional explanatory factors.public debt, economic growth, Italian economic history

Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?

This paper reexamines the existence of a long-run relationship between wages and unemployment in the U.K., with data over the period 1860-1913 used by A.W. Phillips to derive the well-known Phillips Curve. Using Johansen's maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, a long-run inverse relationship is indeed depicted between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the main impact of deviations from this long-run equilibrium is on the unemployment rate rather than the rate of inflation.Phillips Curve; long-run equilibrium; cointegration

Growth and cycles of the Italian economy since 1861: the new evidence

Based on a newly-available large set of historical national accounts, the paper revisits the main features of economic growth and cycles in Italy for the post-Unification period 1861-2011. Alongside the structural changes in growth dynamics, the main sources of output and productivity growth are identified. As regards the analysis of the underlying cyclical component, a business cycle chronology is first established and then both the specific patterns of individual cycles and the co-movements of output with key macroeconomic variables are investigated. In the 150 years since its political Unification, Italy's economic growth was mainly propelled by consumption and investments, whereas on the supply side the industry and services sectors were by far the main contributors, also because of the positive effect of labour reallocation to nonfarm activities. Over the same period, Italy experienced approximately 20 business cycles of varying duration and amplitude. Output fluctuations were dominated by the short-term variability of agricultural production before World War II and by fluctuations of the industry sector thereafter. The cyclical behaviour exhibited by aggregate demand components conforms quite well to that evidenced in the standard international business cycle literature, although some exceptions arise in the pre-World War II years

Sustainability of Italian budgetary policies: a time series analysis (1862-2013)

In this paper, we analyze the sustainability of Italian public finances using a unique database covering the period 1862-2013. This paper focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of fiscal policies. A necessary but not sufficient condition implies that the growth rate of public debt should in the limit be smaller than the asymptotic rate of interest. In addition, the debt-to-GDP ratio must eventually stabilize at a steady-state level. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms). Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two subâ€periods (1862â€1913 and 1947â€2013). Moreover, anecdotal evidence and visual inspection of the series confirm our results. Furthermore, we conduct tests on cointegration, which evidence that a long-run relationship between public expenditure and revenues is found only for the first sub-period (1862-1913). In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy have sustainability problems in the Republican age